Can Iran and Pakistan forge a new strategy to quell Balochistan unrest?

A history of bloody crackdowns, foreign meddling, and unaddressed grievances hangs heavy as regional powers seek uneasy alliance against insurgents.

Markazi Jamiat Ahle Hadees Pakistan activists protest in Lahore on January 19, after Iran launched an airstrike in Pakistan‘s southwest Balochistan province. | Photo Credit: Arif ALI/AFP

As the dust settles now on the recent tit-for-tat airstrikes, Iran and Pakistan are finalising a strategy to launch a joint operation to clear the Balochistan-Sistan region from militants on both sides of the border—something akin to 1973. This will form one of the major issues when Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian meets his Pakistani counterpart Jalil Abbas Jilani on January 29 in Islamabad, Pakistan. Sources say some top Iranian military officials will also accompany the Minister to formalise the strategy.

Balochistan’s history is marked by several conflicts. The fourth insurgency in 1973 was put down with an iron hand by the then Pakistan President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in alliance with Iran. The armed forces of both countries worked together to brutally end the insurgency led by the Baluch People’s Liberation Front (BPLF) under Khair Bakhsh Marri, who was initially angry at the dismissal of the provincial governments and the imposition of martial law. Incidentally, the decision to launch joint military operations was taken after Pakistani police and paramilitary raided the Iraqi embassy in Islamabad in February 1973, seizing a large cache of small arms, ammunition, grenades, and other supplies, which was meant for Baloch rebels.

The recent escalations in the Balochistan-Sistan region began with Iranian airstrikes on Pakistan’s Balochistan province, causing casualties, including innocent children. Iran claimed these strikes targeted strongholds of the Sunni militant group, Jaish ul-Adl (JAA), which seeks independence for Iran’s Balochistan-Sistan province. In response, Pakistan executed military strikes on suspected separatist hideouts in the Iranian province.

However, amid the rising tensions, a glimmer of hope emerged as Pakistan’s caretaker Foreign Minister engaged in talks with his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amir Abdollahian. The two foreign ministers, acknowledging the significance of cooperation and synchronised efforts, focused on countering terrorism and addressing mutual concerns. This diplomatic move, underlining the commitment to regional stability, marked a turning point in the situation.

In Islamabad, the escalation prompted a high-level meeting of Pakistan’s premier authority on security and foreign policy, the National Security Committee. It was chaired by the caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar ul Haq Kakar with Cabinet Members, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, the Chiefs of the Army, Navy and Air Staff, and other heads of intelligence in attendance.

Backroom diplomacy

Highly placed sources in Ankara and Islamabad told Frontline that the backroom diplomacy by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi helped to reduce tensions and convinced both neighbours to address each other’s security concerns. China, with its substantial investment of $46 billion in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), has a major stake in the peace in the region.

The sudden escalation between Iran and Pakistan has not only brought the Balochistan-Sistan region to the forefront but has also sparked international interest in this mineral-rich, restive, and largely under-developed area. Spanning across Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province and Iran’s southeastern Sistan-Balochistan province, this territory has often been overshadowed by its geopolitical significance.

The last mention of this region at an international forum dates back to a joint statement issued following a meeting between Pakistani Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in 2009. The statement emphasised intelligence-sharing on future terrorist threats, with Pakistan mentioning information about threats in Balochistan and other areas.

Recent escalations in the region began with Iranian airstrikes on Pakistan’s Balochistan province. Iran claimed these strikes targeted strongholds of Jaish ul-Adl (JAA), which seeks independence for Iran’s Balochistan-Sistan province. In response, Pakistan executed military strikes on suspected separatist hideouts in the Iranian province.

The Balochistan region, characterised by its rugged terrain, straddles the borders of Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran. This vast expanse is known for its mineral wealth and complex ethnic dynamics. The majority of Baloch people reside within the region that predominantly falls within Pakistan’s borders, and the majority are Sunni Muslims. Several separatist armed groups operate in this area, with the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) being prominent players responsible for various attacks on Pakistani interests and Chinese nationals. Jaish al Adl (JAA), founded in 2012, operates on both sides of the Iran-Pakistan border and has targeted Iranian security and military forces.

According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, over the last three years, since the beginning of 2022, the Pakistani side of Balochistan has witnessed 902 killings including 400 security forces personnel and 257 civilians in 336 violent incidents. The recent escalation between Pakistan and Iran is particularly unusual given the backdrop of growing tensions in West Asia. Iran’s alliances and proxies are engaged in conflicts across the region, making the situation even more complex. Anne Patterson, a former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and Ambassador to Pakistan, highlighted the opacity surrounding Baloch separatist groups, urging Washington to seize the opportunity to restore confidence in Pakistan rather than ceding leadership to China.

A woman sits near her hut in the Koh-e-Sabz area of Pakistan‘s southwest Balochistan province where Iran launched an airstrike, on January 18, 2024.  | Photo Credit: Banaras KHAN / AFP

Besides Turkish and Chinese mediation, the cooling down of tensions between Islamabad and Tehran is also attributed to Pakistan’s realisation that it has lost levers in the United States. Patterson said Washington’s decision, in recent years, to keep Pakistan, especially the Pakistani army, at arm’s length has been significant. Despite raising concerns about cross-border attacks from Afghanistan and Pakistan’s economic challenges, the US paid little attention to these issues which were raised by Pakistani Army Chief Syed Asim Munir’s recent visit to the US.

Munir expected from the US a continuation of the kind of support that his country had received in the past during the “war on terror” to counter the rising Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP) violence. Former Intelligence Bureau officer Avinash Mohananey who served in Islamabad, says that Pakistan does not realise that while TTP is carefully avoiding targeting the US interests, it does not mind attacking Chinese nationals in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. “Why would the US then target an entity that was doing the work that otherwise it would have assigned to CIA?”

Pakistani-born author and the founding director of the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center, Shuja Nawaz, pointed out that as early as 2007, media reports had indicated covert US support for Jundallah or JAA against Iran. He said that Pakistan was alleged to have played a role in the capture of their leader Abdolmalek Rigi by Iran in 2010. “If Iran believes that the United States is covertly supporting Jaish ul-Adl, this could explain Tehran’s decision to attack Pakistani territory,” he said.

One of the critical questions that arise from these events is why Pakistan allowed JAA to operate within its province of Balochistan. Equally puzzling is why Iran permitted Balochistan nationalists to use its territory as a sanctuary and alleged Indian agents to conduct operations against Pakistan from Iranian Balochistan.

The 2017 arrest of former Indian naval officer Kulbhushan Sudhir Jadhav in Pakistani Balochistan on charges of terrorism and spying for Indian intelligence added another layer of complexity. While Pakistan claimed Jadhav was apprehended within its territory, India asserted that he had been abducted from the Iranian port city of Chahbahar by the JAA and then handed over to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in a meticulously planned operation.

In parallel with the hostilities in Pakistan, Iran conducted strikes on what it claimed to be a “Mossad-affiliated spy base” in Erbil, Iraq, and a “terrorist-affiliated” headquarters in Idlib, Syria. Surprisingly, the US and Israel refrained from responding with attacks on Iranian territory, despite the provocations. Pakistan’s airstrikes in response marked a significant departure from the restrained approach observed by other nations in the region.

Insurgency: a multifaceted phenomenon

The insurgency in Balochistan is a multifaceted phenomenon, encompassing nationalist and Islamist militants opposed to the governments of Pakistan and Iran. Armed groups in the region seek greater control over natural resources and political autonomy, and they have targeted civilians from various ethnicities. In recent years, sectarian groups have also contributed to the tension by launching attacks against the Shia community. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), designated as a terrorist organisation by Pakistan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, stands out as one of the most prominent Baloch separatist groups.

While the conflict in Pakistan’s Balochistan has gained more attention, the situation in Iranian Balochistan remains complex. In the aftermath of the mass unrest in Iran following the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, protests and unrest surged in Iran’s Sistan and Balochistan province, leading to a brutal crackdown by the Iranian regime on its Baloch population.

The Baloch struggle for independence traces its roots to the 20th century when the educated Baloch middle class aspired to break free from British colonial rule. They formed the nationalist movement Anjuman-e-Ittehad-e-Balochistan in 1931, aiming to establish a constitutional government under the Khan of Kalat. However, their efforts were met with resistance and eventual exile, leading to the formation of new political parties aligned with different ideologies.

Afghanistan has also played an enigmatic role in the Balochistan conflict, with reports suggesting that it provided shelter to Baloch separatists. Brahumdagh Bugti, a prominent separatist leader, found refuge in Afghanistan, creating tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Accusations and allegations have been a constant feature in the Balochistan conflict. Iran has been accusing the US, Britain, Israel, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia of supporting Baloch separatists. In contrast, Western countries have accused the Jaish ul-Adl of having ties with Al Qaeda. The ideological roots of JAA, drawn from Salafism, further complicate the situation.

Pakistan has been pointing figures at India for fueling trouble in Balochistan. It is believed that militant groups like Pasthun Zalmay, which were made up of Baloch and Pashtun militants, were in direct contact with Kabul as well as with Indian and Iraqi missions in Afghanistan.

Consequently, relations between Iran and India deteriorated so much that in 1975, the Indian Ambassador in Tehran Ram D. Sathe sent a secret letter in which he claimed that “it will be [only] a few more days before Iranians will stridently back Pakistanis (on Kashmir) ... Personally I do not think we should be under any illusion about this matter. I think Iranians will back the Pakistanis”. Author Avnish Paliwal claims that even if Indian intelligence agencies denied direct support to Baloch insurgents, it was unlikely that they would have remained aloof from the unfolding dynamics.

As the world watches the unfolding situation in the Balochistan-Sistan region, it remains uncertain whether cooperation by Iran and Pakistan will find a peaceful resolution to the longstanding problems in the region or create another full-blown militancy in reaction to using the iron hand as happened after 1973 operations. Iran’s influence on Pakistan’s domestic politics and the sympathy it garners among sections of society adds a layer of complexity.

Ultimately, addressing the grievances, ethnic, and religious dynamics, and geopolitical interests fueling insurgency on both sides of the border will be crucial to preventing further instability in this volatile region. In the intricate web of Balochistan geopolitics, the journey toward stability is fraught with challenges and uncertainties, but it remains a paramount goal for the global community. As Iran and Pakistan navigate these uncharted waters, the world watches with bated breath, hoping for a resolution that brings lasting peace and prosperity to the Balochistan-Sistan region.

Iftikhar Gilani is an Indian journalist based in Ankara.