The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah: What lies ahead for Hezbollah, Lebanon, and West Asia?

The death of Hezbollah’s enigmatic leader sends shockwaves across the region, leaving a power vacuum in Lebanon and raising fears of a wider war.

Published : Sep 28, 2024 17:36 IST

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut’s suburbs, on November 14, 2013. | Photo Credit: KHALIL HASSAN

Although Lebanon had been witnessing relentless Israeli strikes since September 16, on Friday evening (September 27) densely packed southern suburbs of the capital Beirut, a Shiite area known as Hezbollah stronghold, were brimming with activity. Then, in a matter of seconds, all of that changed. A series of deafening explosions shattered the relative calm, reducing six buildings to rubble.

The Israeli airstrikes, targeting what was claimed to be a Hezbollah headquarters with deep penetrating bombs weighing 900 to 1,800 kg, created five metres wide craters not only in Beirut but in the whole region, as the Israeli army claimed having killed Hezbollah Secretary-General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, not only the most powerful leader of Iran’s Axis of Resistance but a significant political figure.

Hezbollah’s official spokesperson announced the death of their leader to Frontline in Arabic. “We will complete this path, even if we are all killed, even if we are all martyred, even if our homes are destroyed over our heads, we will not abandon the option of Islamic resistance,” the spokesperson told Frontline.

Hezbollah Member of Parliament Amin Mohammad Sherri told Frontline from Beirut that they had lost contact with the leader since Friday evening. After the pager explosions, it was known among strategic circles that Israel had a window to decimate or combat Hezbollah as their communication network was in the doldrums.

“I felt like the building was going to collapse on top of me as if a rocket was going to hit me and kill me,” recalled 45-year-old Hammoud Abeer, who lives in the southern suburbs. He said the air was thick with the acrid smell of burning buildings, as firefighters were battling blazes that continued to rage even on September 28.

“Hezbollah’s official spokesperson announced the death of their leader to Frontline in Arabic. “We will complete this path, even if we are all killed, even if we are all martyred, even if our homes are destroyed over our heads, we will not abandon the option of Islamic resistance,” the spokesperson told Frontline.”

Lawyer Ali-Mohammad al-Jawad who lives two kilometres from the blast site, said the explosions “lasted several seconds and sounded deep and strong, as if it were a successive series of sonic booms.”

His home shook violently, windows rattling as if an invisible hand had grabbed the building and shaken it to its core. It felt like an earthquake, many said, but the danger was not natural—it was man-made. He saw people pouring into the streets, some clutching hastily packed suitcases, others holding children close as they fled the area. He realised that this was no ordinary bombing and looked like a calculated strike to take out some important target.

He believes that if Israel’s claim of killing Nasrallah is correct, then it is an earthquake not only for Lebanon but for the whole region. The man has been both revered for forcefully combating Israel and addressing Lebanese national pride but also reviled by many for forcing Tel Aviv to perpetrate collective punishment against the people of Lebanon.

No ordinary militant leader

Observers say Hassan Nasrallah was not an ordinary leader. Since 1992, he has been steering the Iran-backed Shiite Muslim group that has been a thorn in Israel’s side and a symbol of resistance for many in Lebanon and the broader Arab world. His rise to power was as much a product of circumstance as it was of strategy.

Born in 1960 in the working-class neighbourhood of Bourj Hammoud in East Beirut, Nasrallah’s early years were marked by the turbulence of Lebanon’s civil war. His family, like many others, was displaced by the violence, moving to the southern village of Bassouriyeh. It was here, in the shadow of conflict and displacement, that Nasrallah’s political and religious consciousness began to take shape.

By the time Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982, Nasrallah was a young cleric, deeply influenced by the Shiite revolutionary ideology emanating from Iran. He joined the nascent Hezbollah, which was formed with the help of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, and quickly rose through the ranks. His oratory skills and strategic acumen set him apart, and in 1992, following the assassination of then-leader Sayyed Abbas Musawi by Israel, Nasrallah was chosen to lead the group.

Under his leadership, Hezbollah transformed from a small militant faction into a formidable political and military force. Nasrallah’s ability to blend populist rhetoric with military strategy endeared him to Lebanon’s Shiite community and beyond. He became a symbol of defiance, and his speeches—delivered from secret locations to avoid assassination—were broadcast to rapt audiences across the Arab world.

Also Read | Israel claims it killed Hezbollah’s long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike on Beirut

Nasrallah’s tenure has been marked by both triumph and tragedy. He led Hezbollah during the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, a period that culminated in the group’s most celebrated victory in 2000 when Israeli forces withdrew from the region after nearly two decades of guerrilla warfare.

His reputation as a master strategist was further cemented in 2006, during a 34-day war with Israel, in which Hezbollah’s ability to withstand the Israeli onslaught elevated Nasrallah to near-mythical status among his supporters.

Yet, his leadership has also been contentious. Critics argue that Nasrallah’s close ties to Iran and his involvement in Syria’s civil war have dragged Lebanon into conflicts that have little to do with the country’s interests. His decision to send Hezbollah fighters to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad alienated many in Lebanon, and the group’s domestic political manoeuvres have often been seen as heavy-handed and divisive.

Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy research director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut believes that for Hezbollah, his loss is not just a blow to morale but a potentially existential crisis. “He has been the glue that has held together an expanding organisation. The whole landscape would change big time,” he said.

Ali Rizik, an analyst based in Beirut said replacing Nasrallah would be no easy task for the militant cum political group, which has 13 MPs in the 128-member Lebanese parliament. The group also has two ministers Ali Hamiyeh and Mustafa Bairam in Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s government.

Although Hashem Safieddine, a seasoned Hezbollah operative with deep ties to both the group’s political and military wings is seen as his successor for years. But sources say, he is also not reachable since Friday evening, with many reports suggesting that he was also inside the building.

But for anybody stepping into Nasrallah’s shoes would be daunting. He is not just a leader but an icon, his image gracing billboards, key chains, and even mobile phone screens across Lebanon.

The implications of Nasrallah’s death extend far beyond Hezbollah. For Israel, it would be a significant, albeit risky, victory.

“Eliminating Nasrallah would be a game-changer,” said Lina Khatib, an associate fellow at the Chatham House Policy Institute in London. “But it would also underline Israel’s security and military superiority, which could provoke a dangerous escalation.”

Indeed, in the hours after the Beirut strike, Hezbollah launched several rocket attacks on Israel, a clear signal that the group was not cowed. “Israel has declared war. It is a full-scale war, and Israel is using this opportunity to eliminate the leadership structure and destroy Hezbollah’s infrastructure,” said Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics.

West Asia is already engulfed in multiple conflicts, from the civil war in Syria to the ongoing violence in Yemen. The prospect of a major escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, which could draw in other regional actors like Iran, is a nightmare scenario for diplomats and analysts alike.

“This could lead to a regional war,” warned Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, the UN special coordinator for Lebanon. “The city is still shaking with fear.” Her words echoed the sentiments of many in Beirut, where the scars of previous conflicts are still fresh.

In Beirut, for many, the events of Friday night were a grim reminder of the 2006 war, when Israeli bombs flattened much of the same area. But this time, they said, the fear was even greater.

“The price of this war is much too high,” said a woman who fled her home in Bourj el-Barajneh. “We saw the strikes and thought we were going to die. We saw everything—it was a real genocide.”

For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the news of Nasrullah’s death is a big morale booster at a time when his leadership was being questioned. Although there are strong apprehensions about his end goal, it has given a sense of victory in Israel that will allow him to continue in power.

As the Saturday evening approaches over a shattered Beirut, the question on everyone’s lips is the same: What happens now? With Nasrallah gone and the spectre of war looming large, not only Lebanon, but the whole region finds itself at a dangerous crossroads.

People in the entire West Asia are getting goosebumps while watching TV sets of Beirut’s southern suburbs. They apprehend they would next see the scene of devastation and despair. With entire families, their homes reduced to rubble, wandering the streets in search of shelter, they fear it could be a scene in any West Asian city, as the conflict widens.

Iftikhar Gilani is an Indian journalist based in Ankara.

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