Alliances of opportunity

As Sri Lanka goes to the polls following the dissolution of the 11th Parliament, political parties gear for the five-week campaign with their new-found allies.

IT is election time again in Sri Lanka. The country's 11th Parliament suffered an early demise when the People's Alliance (P.A.) government lost its majority following large-scale defections on the eve of a no-confidence vote in early October and President Chandrika Kumaratunga responded by dissolving the House and calling fresh elections on December 5, just 14 months after the last one.

When nominations closed on October 27, more than 4,600 candidates representing 18 political parties and 42 independent groups had been accepted as contestants. Campaigning began almost immediately. The period from the days immediately before the October 10 dissolution to the close of nominations saw a number of changes in Sri Lanka's political spectrum. Various players, big and small, manoeuvred for space, in the process creating new alliances and coalitions that could make the post-election scenario at least as complex as the last time.

It all began when the dissension and disgruntlement in the ranks of the P.A. burst through and two of the coalition's key figures, as different from each other as chalk and cheese, the academic G.L. Peiris and the rough-and-ready S.B. Dissanayake, did a "cross-over" to the opposition United National Party (UNP).

The two senior Ministers had been crossed out of Kumaratunga's books much earlier and knowing full well that they would not find a place in the new Cabinet formed after the P.A's alliance with the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), they had resigned from their posts in early September.

They remained in the party, but their departure was just a matter of timing. It happened on October 10, a day before the debate on a no-confidence motion against the government was scheduled. The two took with them seven others, including another former Minister, Mahinda Wijesekera.

Hours later, the leader of the Ceylon Workers' Congress (CWC) Armugam Thondaman also resigned from his Cabinet post. The three other members of the party, which represents the Indian Tamil community, said they were reconsidering their support to the government. By then, the government, which together with the JVP had 119 MPs in the 225-member house, was already down to 110. A parliamentarian belonging to another ally, the Mahajana Eksath Peramuna, had walked out of the P.A. a day earlier.

The declaration of elections only seemed to accelerate the exodus from the P.A., and in the days that followed, the coalition lost several other political leaders, including former Minister for Sports and Tourism and one-time deputy Foreign Minister, Lakshman Kiriella.

For the emaciated P.A., the only consolation was the return of Anura Bandaranaike from the UNP. He had joined the UNP after walking out of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), founded by his father S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike and nurtured by his mother Sirima, when its leadership was handed over to his sister Chandrika in early 1992.

It had remained his mother's fond hope that Anura would return to the party of his family. Her death on election day last year brought the estranged siblings closer, and as an acknowledgement of this Chandrika Kumaratunga agreed to the UNP proposal that Anura be made the Speaker of the 11th Parliament. After that, few doubted his return to the SLFP, the main party in the P.A., sooner rather than later.

Certainly, the ruling alliance is not at the height of its popularity. Since forming the government last year, it has been more preoccupied with keeping its coalition partners together than with governance. The P.A. government took some extreme steps towards this end. For instance, more than 70 of its 116 Members of Parliament were either Cabinet Ministers or Deputy Ministers. Ministries had to be divided and sub-divided to make room for everyone. Aspirants for power who did not become Ministers were accommodated in diplomatic posts or in the various statutory bodies of the government. It is no exaggeration to say that the end result was a paralysis of administration for nearly a year.

The July 24 attack in the Colombo airport by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) set off a crisis for the already ailing economy; the September 11 attacks in the U.S. only compounded it by wiping out the prospects of one of the most important sectors of Sri Lanka's economy, the travel and tourism trade.

With respect to the ethnic conflict, the government seemed to have bungled the peace process, and proving inept at war too, suffering massive casualties in one short-lived offensive in April.

Even Kumaratunga's famed political sense seemed to have deserted her when she took one ill-advised decision after another, beginning with the sacking of Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) leader Rauff Hakeem. It set off a survival crisis for her government, and led to the alliance with the JVP.

It is against this background that the UNP scents victory in the coming elections. The party and its allies, who include the SLMC, the CWC and the defectors from the P.A., are contesting as the United National Front (UNF).

Realignments have taken place among the Tamil parties of the north and the east as well. Four parties have come together in a "northern alliance" to contest the elections but not before days of internal wrangling and considerable pressure from influential sections of the Tamil minority, including possibly the LTTE. They are the Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF), the Tamil Eelam Liberation Organisation (TELO), the All Ceylon Tamil Congress (ACTC) and the faction of the Eelam People's Revolutionary Liberation Front (EPRLF) that severed links with Varatharaja Perumal upon his return from self-imposed exile in India, and is now led by Suresh Premachandran. The TULF has gone as far as to say that it supports the "freedom struggle" of the LTTE, party general secretary R. Sampanthan declaring this in the eastern district of Trincomalee from where he is seeking election. This is the first time that the TULF has openly expressed its support for the LTTE after it distanced itself from Tamil militancy in the early 1980s. The development perhaps marks a watershed in Sri Lanka's ethnic conflict.

The "northern alliance" wants the next government to declare a ceasefire with the LTTE and begin peace talks immediately. An agreement drawn up among the four designates the LTTE as the sole representative of the Tamil people in any peace talks whenever they are held.

Post-election, the alliance is expected to back the UNF, which has declared that it will stop the war and begin talks with the LTTE. The P.A. sees this as evidence of the UNP's "secret understanding" with the LTTE and the state-run media are awash with allegations along these lines, despite the fact that the P.A.'s own agenda vis-a-vis the LTTE is no different.

In that case, why should the alliance Tamil politicians back the UNP and not the P.A.? Besides their own lack of faith in the P.A., these politicians believe that the LTTE does not want to deal any more with the P.A. and would prefer to do business with the UNP. They are convinced that by following this line, they can tap into popular pro-LTTE Tamil sentiment.

Three of the parties in the alliance were represented in the last Parliament. At one time avowedly anti-LTTE, Premachandran, who has been in the political wilderness for nearly a decade, evidently hopes to improve his fortunes by tagging his faction of the EPRLF with the alliance. One columnist called it the alliance's "act of mercy" towards the young politician.

The P.A. has on its side the Eelam People's Democratic Party (EPDP) in whose hands it has left the peninsula. Despite the inroads the party has made through development activities and by doling out largesse while being part of the P.A. government, the EPDP might find the going tough this time, pitted as it will be against the alliance.

Left to fend for themselves, the People's Liberation Organisation of Tamil Eelam (PLOTE) and the EPRLF (Perumal) faction have no choice but to contest on their own as they did last time. Neither party was represented in the last Parliament.

One important difference between this election and last year's is the role of the Elections Commissioner. On September 24, acting at the point of a gun held by the JVP, the government introduced the 17th Amendment to the Constitution to set up independent commissions concerning elections, the police, the judiciary and the bureaucracy.

For the Opposition, the independent commissions, especially the one concerning elections, have been top priority, particularly since the last elections, which was marred by allegations of rigging and other malpractices by P.A. politicians in certain districts. Sri Lanka's combination of proportional representation and preferential voting led to bitterness even within the P.A. with some politicians accusing others of snatching their preferential votes through unfair means.

The 17th Amendment was enacted with the support of all parties, but the dissolution of Parliament has prevented the Constitutional Council of MPs that would appoint the commissions from being set up. However, the present Elections Commissioner, Dayananda Dissanayake, previously a docile official with no powers, has said that under the transitory provisions in the amendment he can function as the Elections Commissioner as well as the Commission.

The Amendment makes the Commission answerable to Parliament and for the first time gives the official in charge of it control and direction over public servants, including the police, for the conduct of a free and fair election. It also gives him power to lay down guidelines for the functioning of the state-owned media.

AS the cliche goes, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. The upcoming elections will be the real test of what this official can and cannot achieve. Suddenly empowered, Dissanayake has begun reading the riot act to various actors in the run-up to the elections, but thus far no one has shown the inclination to comply.

The police chief, who was asked to cancel the transfers of the 59 officials ordered after the elections were announced, has flatly refused on the ground that nowhere in the 17th Amendment does it say that the Elections Commissioner has a say in this matter. The Opposition parties have said they will take the police chief to court.

The state media too have shown scant respect for his guidelines of impartiality. And Dissanayake has admitted that he has no powers yet to enforce these guidelines. The Commissioner can ensure compliance only through a competent authority appointed by Parliament, but when Parliament stands dissolved, he can do nothing more than "request" compliance. But still it is hoped that the Elections Commissioner, with assistance from the powers set out in the 17th Amendment, will be able to act as a deterrent against attempts at violence and irregularities in the elections.

Much will depend on the five-week campaign. Although it is a relatively short one, it will certainly be bitter. While the UNP-led UNF will try and keep the focus on the mismanagement of the economy and the war by the government as the main issues facing voters, P.A. politicians are already arguing, citing their own example, that what the country needs is a stable government that does not have to depend on the minority parties for support.

The JVP, basking in the role of king-maker that it briefly donned two months ago, will be seeking to retain if not increase its vote-share in these elections in order to ensure that the next political dispensation has no choice but to do business with it.

Should the UNP emerge victorious in the elections, a crucial issue will be its relationship with President Chandrika Kumaratunga, whose elected term of office lasts till 2005. Some analysts believe that with political maturity on the part of the leaders, this situation of enforced national government might be the best formula yet for Sri Lanka. Others predict a constitutional crisis with the all-powerful President clashing with the government, leading to a deadlock in government.

For Sri Lanka, it could turn out to be an election that throws up more questions than answers.