In quest of peace - somehow

By voting decisively for the parties that promised talks with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, the people of Sri Lanka seem to have expressed their desire for peace.

AFTER a bloody, no-holds-barred election campaign that ran for over five weeks and claimed several lives, Sri Lanka voted decisively on December 5 against the ruling People's Alliance (P.A.), giving the United National Party (UNP) a majority of the seats in Parliament and thus signalling the people's desire for a change in government as well as governance.

The UNP-led United National Front (UNF), which secured 45.6 per cent of the vote and 109 seats, did not get an absolute majority but emerged as the single largest political grouping in the 225-member Parliament. Together with the five seats of its ally, the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), the UNF has 114 seats, just one past the half-way mark.

The four-party Tamil National Alliance (TNA), which contested in the North-East Province, won 15 seats on the strength of its campaign in support of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). During the campaign it proclaimed that the LTTE was the only representative of the "Tamil nation" but also held out an assurance that that organisation would play no role in government.

For the P.A., it was a terrible crash. From over 44 per cent in the 2000 general elections, its share of the vote fell below 38 per cent. The coalition could win only 77 seats. It contested in 21 of the 22 districts but won in just one. It lost to the UNP even its traditional strongholds.

THE conduct of the elections raised some serious questions. A dozen people were killed on voting day alone; the Army prevented about 80,000 voters living in LTTE-held areas in the North-East from travelling to areas under government control where arrangements had been made for them to cast their ballots; and malpractices were reported from various parts of the island. But in the end, while expressing serious concern over these events and dissatisfaction over the fact that repolling was not ordered in some places, the international election observers went away saying that the final results were an accurate reflection of the will of the people.

Even before the final results were announced on December 7, the P.A. conceded defeat and its Prime Minister, Ratnasiri Wickramanayake, submitted his resignation to President Chandrika Kumaratunga. The P.A. made no attempt to stake claim to form a government. Even with the 16 seats of its potential ally, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), which improved its vote-share dramatically, the P.A. would have been far short of the number required.

The P.A's Tamil ally, the Eelam People's Democratic Party, was routed in the North-East; it won only two seats. It won five seats in the last elections. The People's Liberation Organisation of Tamil Eelam (PLOTE) scraped up enough votes to claim one seat.

ON December 9, Ranil Wickremasinghe, the 52-year-old leader of the UNP, was sworn in Prime Minister. But it was not a simple matter of the guy-next-in-line taking over the baton. Since 1978, Sri Lanka has been governed by an all-powerful Executive President, with the Prime Minister being a figurehead. Obviously, the late J.R. Jayewardene, the wily architect of the present Constitution and the first to occupy the office, did not foresee a situation in which the President and the Prime Minister would be from rival parties. Wickremasinghe has made it plain that he will be no figurehead.

A nephew of Jayewardene, Wickremasinghe was a lawyer before entering politics, and was catapulted to the UNP leadership in 1994 after a series of assassinations by the LTTE decimated almost the entire top rung of the party. He held on to the reins of the UNP despite challenges to his leadership. He also managed to pull all the dissidents together and prevented the party from splitting. Led by him, the UNP finally outmanoeuvred the shaky P.A. in Parliament, forcing Kumaratunga to call early elections.

For the UNP, the victory is no less than a mandate against Kumaratunga, who has been head of government for the past seven years, even though the President's post was not up for election. The UNP also sees in the results a mandate for it to take over the reins of government. According to the party, if Kumaratunga wishes to stay on, it has to be on terms set by its government.

For starters, Wickremasinghe wanted a free hand in forming the Cabinet although it is the constitutional prerogative of the President to name one. Kumaratunga was prepared to let him appoint the Ministers, but was initially keen to retain the Defence and Finance portfolios which she has held since becoming President in 1994.

Expecting a stand-off, the UNP planned counter-moves, including street protests. But on advice from her party members, Kumaratunga decided to let go, heading off a potentially explosive confrontation with the UNP and clearing the decks for the swearing-in of a 25-member UNF Cabinet.

Tilak Marapone, who was Attorney-General in the governments of Ranasinghe Premadasa and D.B. Wijetunga and is a trusted lieutenant of Wickremasinghe, is the Defence Minister. The Finance portfolio has gone to K. Nariman Choksy, an eminent lawyer and a senior leader of the UNP. Tyronne Fernando, a lawyer and a party stalwart, is the Foreign Minister.

The P.A. dissidents who crossed over to the UNP before the elections were not forgotten. Spelling some continuity with the old government, G.L. Peiris has been made Minister of Industries and Constitutional Affairs. Sri Lanka Muslim Congress leader Rauff Hakeem has also been given the portfolio he held earlier in the Kumaratunga government - Ports, with the additional responsibility of Shipping.

Kumaratunga remains Comm-ander-in-Chief of the armed forces but for all practical purposes has handed over the reins of government to the Prime Minister. With all the talk of looking to France for a role-model of co-habitation (see following article), it seems as if Kumaratunga might have decided to follow the example set by French Presidents in similar situations - they usually take the credit for any progress made by the government and let it carry the can for everything that goes wrong. Moreover, a politically weakened Kumaratunga stands to gain nothing from an immediate confrontation. Kumaratunga may have opted for a ceremonial role in the face of political reality but no one, least of all the UNP, expects this retreat to be permanent.

THE thinking among the UNP leaders is that it should remove Kumaratunga before she begins to assert herself by exercising the powers vested in her by the Constitution and tries to remove them. She has the power to dissolve the new Parliament as soon as it completes a year and call fresh elections. One year would not be sufficient for the UNP to settle down in government, let alone fulfil its election promises. Before Kumaratunga acts, the UNP is likely to attempt to force her to resign or even impeach her.

As soon as he was sworn in, Wickremasinghe declared his intention to "consult" all parties before forming the Cabinet, spurring speculation that he was exploring the idea of setting up an "all-party" government. There were no takers for this, but indications were that some P.A. members were preparing to defy the party leadership and join hands with a UNF government, if not immediately then later. That would help the UNF build on its slender majority and prepare for the eventuality of a clash with the President. The procedure for impeachment is complicated and requires a two-thirds vote in Parliament.

Assuming that there will be no confrontation, at least not in the foreseeable future, all eyes will be on Wickremasinghe to see if he can deliver on the promise of peace.

India would be watching too. In the last few months, there was palpable dissatisfaction in New Delhi with the Kumaratunga government's handling of the Norwegian-facilitated peace process as well as its own political problems, especially its survival-oriented pact with the JVP.

Immediately on taking charge, Wickremasinghe conveyed to the Indian government a desire to visit New Delhi without any loss of time and his request was readily accommodated. The revival of the peace process would form the centre-piece of his discussions with Indian leaders during his three-day visit from December 22 accompanied by Foreign Minister Fernando.

With nearly 45 per cent of Sinhala-Buddhist voters in the south and over 47 per cent of Tamil voters in the North-East voting for parties that promised peace talks between the government and the LTTE and rejecting those that adopted the line of pursuing a military solution to the nearly two-decades-old conflict, the verdict has to be read as being one for peace.

But in this matter, the attitude of the LTTE would be equally important. Before the elections, its leader Velupillai Prabakaran, in his annual "Heroes' Day" speech, virtually asked voters to dump the P.A. government. Describing the demands of the Tamils as "neither separatism nor terrorism", he gave the impression that he would be ready to talk to a UNP government even on a political solution that runs short of an independent Eelam.

But, giving an "official" interpretation of this message to expatriate pro-LTTE Tamils, his trusted ideologue Anton Balasingham said in London that the LTTE's main aim was to take back control of Jaffna and Batticaloa and that the freedom struggle to "liberate" the Tamil people and Tamil homeland would continue.

The TNA contested the elections promising immediate peace talks. But even with 15 seats, the coalition has no leverage in the new dispensation. With the SLMC making up the shortfall in the UNF numbers, the kingmakers' role that many believed the TNA might have in a hung Parliament scenario has eluded it. But, as Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF) general secretary R. Sampanthan says, if the new government does the "decent thing" and begins peace talks straightaway, will the LTTE come to the table and can the TNA guarantee this? Sampanthan, who contested under the TNA banner and won, says that there is no reason to believe that the LTTE will not come for negotiations.

Wickremasinghe had said before the elections that he would put in place an "interim administration" run by public servants in the North-East. He has also talked of asymmetric devolution of power in the region. Will the LTTE play ball with these ideas? There are no answers yet, but for the moment, judging by the vote, it seems the people would be happy if the peace talks begin.