German assertion

The re-election of Gerhard Schroeder for a second term as Germany's Chancellor reflects the resentment in Europe against American unilateralism and hegemonism in world affairs.

THE re-election of Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder for a second term in office could turn out to be a watershed in European politics. The results of the German elections reflect the mood in Europe against American unilateralism and hegemonism in world affairs. It is for the first time in post-War Germany that an incumbent Chancellor has broken ranks with the United States on an important foreign policy issue. When several European leaders appeared to provide tacit support to the U.S. President George Bush's plans to attack Iraq, Schroeder did the unthinkable. Even though he trailed in the opinion polls, he categorically stated that as long as he was the Chancellor, there was no way Germany would get involved in any military adventure against Iraq, even if such an attack was sanctioned by the United Nations Security Council.

After he won, though narrowly, Schroeder reiterated this stand. His political opponents as well as many European observers had remarked that Schroeder's position on Iraq was an example of his political opportunism. They expected him to reverse course soon after he won the race. Iraq has become an emotive issue in German politics and it will be extremely difficult for Schroeder to backtrack on his commitments. Although many German political analysts believe that Iraq was not the only issue that swayed the electorate, they admit that it provided the necessary momentum for the Social Democratic Pary (SDP) to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

President Bush has not yet found the time to congratulate the Chancellor on his re-election, as courtesy demands. His two closest aides, National Security Adviser Condoleeza Rice and Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, have gone public with their criticism of Schroeder. Rumsfeld told a meeting of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation Ministers in Warsaw that Schroeder's stand on Iraq had "poisoned" German-U.S. relations. During and after the elections, Schroeder has been at pains to reiterate that he continues to be in favour of retaining the traditional links between the two countries. During his election speeches, he repeatedly pointed out that Germany was an active participant in the U.S.-sponsored military campaigns in the Balkans and Afghanistan. But, in order to reinforce their position that this was not the time to go in for yet another military adventure, both Schroeder and his Foreign Minister, Josckha Fischer, emphasised that the situation in both these regions was yet to stabilise.

In the course of the hard-fought election campaign, Schroeder also talked about Germany following a "third way" in international affairs. The U.S. fears that the rest of Europe too would find such a model attractive. It was definitely an attractive proposition for a large number of German voters. In recent years, the U.S. has been taking Europe and NATO for granted even as it pursued its unilateralist agenda on the world stage. Speaking a few days before the polls, German Foreign Ministry officials said that their country would like to stay out of the looming conflict with Iraq. "We have serious doubts about the rationale for a war in Iraq,'' said a senior official. He went on to say that many Germans even questioned the involvement of their country in the Balkan conflict. "Many Germans still prefer a united Yugoslavia,'' the official said.

Germans, like other Europeans, are also fed up with the presence of American bases and huge numbers of American servicemen on their soil. To the surprise of many, perhaps in a desperate move to outflank Schroeder on the Iraq issue, even the conservative challenger, Edmund Stoiber, said that he would not allow the use of German soil for American military activity in case war against Iraq broke out.

Schroeder got the loudest applause in his election rallies when he pledged that Germany would not take part in a war against Iraq. American military bases in Germany are important in case the Bush administration goes ahead with its planned military adventure. The military significance of the bases in Europe has increased also because of the reluctance of most Arab countries to lend the U.S. a helping hand against Iraq. A European election won on an anti-war platform will further stymie the Bush administration's efforts to win support in Europe itself for the war planned against Iraq.

However, most Germans still feel indebted to the U.S. for the massive financial bailout it provided the country after the Second World War to the extent that Germany could re-emerge as the economic powerhouse of western Europe. Germans also seem to be enveloped in a feeling of collective guilt regarding the Jewish community. The criticism of Israel and the policies being pursued by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon against the Palestinians, by the leading Free Democratic Party (FDP) politician Jurgen Molleman, was a factor that led to the dismal showing of the party. Molleman resigned from his post of FDP vice-president a day after the election results were announced. Had the FDP secured a few percentage points more, Germany would have had a change of guard at the top. Traditionally, the FDP aligns itself with the Christian Democratic Union-Christian Socialist Union group in government.

Schroeder has been downplaying fears of a serious rift emerging with Washington. Speaking to the media after the elections, he said that "the basis of the relationship between Germany and the U.S. is so secure that the fears that were played up during the election campaign were unfounded".

In his rally speeches, Stoiber had said that Schroeder, by his refusal to toe the Bush administration's line on Iraq, had caused irreparable damage to the traditional friendship between the two countries. Schroeder had let it be discreetly known that he refused to take the U.S. President's call while on the campaign trail.

Condoleeza Rice had weighed in during the closing stages of the election by commenting that "an atmosphere has been created that has been poisoned''. German Defence Minister Peter Struck complained on election night about Washington's "massive involvement'' in the campaign. Struck had announced during the course of the campaign that Germany would withdraw its elite troops based in Kuwait, trained to combat germ and chemical warfare, if the U.S. went to war with Iraq. Given the circumstances, Bush would not have liked anything better than seeing a change of regime in Berlin.

Schroeder's stand on Iraq seems to have distanced Berlin from Paris. In recent times, Germany and France have been operating in tandem on most foreign policy issues. The French position on Iraq seems to be closer to Washington although Paris continues to insist that it is against any unilateral use of force against Iraq. However, the French position could change once the U.N. Security Council provides the necessary sanction for the use of force. These days, Paris has drawn closer to London, although President Jacques Chirac still keeps some of his options open in comparison to the stand taken by British Prime Minister Tony Blair on the Iraq issue.

Schroeder and Fischer are trying to repair relations with Washington without diluting their stand on Iraq. Schroeder did not retain his Minister of Justice Herta Daeubler-Gmelin in his new Cabinet. The Minister has denied statements attributed to her comparing Bush Jr. with Hitler.

Fischer told the media that Germany would "have to go back to conducting normal business with our most important ally, the United States, and with France the most important outside of Europe and the most important ally inside".

Parties such as the Party for Democratic Socialism (PDS) had warned the electorate that Schroeder's anti-war stance was just an electoral ploy. While speaking at an election rally, PDS leader Grigor Gysi reminded the German people that it was the Red/Green ruling alliance that formally took Germany to war and committed its troops on foreign soil for the first time after the Second World War.

Schroeder and Fischer were enthusiastic backers of the NATO-led war against Yugoslavia, he pointed out. He warned the electorate that the Red/Green alliance would not hesitate to renege on its pledges once it was re-elected.

The next couple of months will show whether Schroeder will remain true to his words. Opinion polls show that the overwhelming majority of Germans are against an American-led war against Iraq.