A cliffhanger in Germany

The German elections witnessed a virtual comeback for Gerhard Schroeder, whose ruling coalition romped home in a closely fought battle.

IT has been one of the most interesting elections ever witnessed in post-War Germany. Until the very end the two major candidates were locked in a neck and neck race, and the results indicated a photo finish. Despite the failure of the ruling coalition to win a decisive majority, it has been a comeback of sorts for Gerhard Schroeder. Only a few months ago, he was virtually written off as a lame duck.

The elections took an interesting turn in the last week of August, around the time Schroeder officially opened his campaign for a second term. At that time, in opinion polls, he was lagging behind his challenger, Edmund Stoiber of the right-of-centre CDU-CSU, an alliance of the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Socialist Union, by a whopping 10 percentage points. Stoiber was already behaving like a Chancellor in waiting. Stoiber's initial campaign strategy was to focus exclusively on the economy. With unemployment figures hovering around four million, the opposition had a strong point against the Red-Green alliance, as the Social Democratic Party-Green Party coalition is popularly known in Germany.

In the run-up to the elections four years ago, Schroeder had promised rashly that he would bring down the unemployment figures substantially, if voted to power. He had even said that he would not stand in another election if he failed to keep the promise. With the German economy showing no signs of recovering fast and the rate of unemployment continuing to rise, most observers of the German scene predicted a rout for the Red-Green alliance, until a few weeks ago. But with less than a month to go before polling day, Schroeder's luck changed for the better.

The flooding in Eastern Germany, the worst in more than 100 years, provided the Chancellor with an excellent opportunity to show his leadership qualities. He rushed to the flood-affected regions to supervise relief work and mobilised the army to help speed it up. His hands-on approach to the problem was, of course, given wide publicity by the media. His conservative challenger, on the other hand, was late in reacting to the disaster. He happened to be on vacation when the floods came in late August. He finally appeared on the scene, but only four days after the Chancellor's highly publicised visit.

The political mileage provided by the floods brought the Chancellor back into the reckoning. However, many analysts are of the opinion that his handling of the flood disaster by itself would not have been able to propel him to a second term in government. It was here that the Iraq issue came in handy. The politically astute Schroeder, sensing the anti-war mood in the country, surprised the international community by announcing publicly that Germany would not support the Bush administration's plan to wage war against Iraq. In fact, he went a step further and said that his country would not participate in any new adventure in the Gulf, even if mandated by the United Nations Security Council.

On the campaign trail, Schroeder's Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, the leader of the Green Party, emphasised repeatedly that there were other important international issues to be solved before starting another war that could have unforeseen consequences for Germany and the international community. Both Schroeder and Fischer repeatedly emphasised that the Israel-Palestine issue and other regional conflicts have yet to be resolved. Fischer has been mentioning Kashmir as one of the important issues that deserves the attention of the international community.

Stoiber, on the other hand, sent out mixed signals on the Iraq issue. Initially, he criticised the Chancellor's stance and talked about Germany's traditional friendship with the United States. But a few days later, gauging the public mood, he said that there was no difference between him and Schroeder on the issue. At the same time, at various rallies he suggested that Germany should not stand aside if there is U.N. backing for the American moves against Iraq. But, as the campaign reached its climax, he changed his stance and said that if elected, he would not allow even the use of German bases by the U.S. military for a war against Iraq. By the time he realised that the Iraq issue was a highly emotive one for the German people, few of his countrymen seemed to believe him. Stoiber is known for his conservative views on foreign and domestic issues. As the campaign reached the finishing line, Stoiber started accusing the Chancellor of damaging German-U.S. relations.

After September 11, Schroeder had promised "unlimited solidarity" with the U.S. However, defending his stance on Iraq, the Chancellor said that solidarity did not mean subservience. He made it clear that important decisions concerning Germany's security interests would be made in "the German way". His Justice Minister, Herta Daeubler-Gmelin, caused a stir a couple of days before the polling by suggesting that President George Bush was using Iraq as a pretext to cover up his domestic shortcomings. However, she denied making any comparison between the policies of Bush and Adolf Hitler. If Schroeder manages to cobble up a majority in the Bundestag (parliament), he will have to be thankful to a large extent on the sabre-rattling of George W. Bush on Iraq and to the spirited campaign of Joschka Fischer.

For the first time, the German elections were run like an American-style campaign, with personalities dominating. Although the Greens are among the three smaller parties in German politics, Fischer has gained a huge personal following. This is reflected in the better-than-expected showing of the Greens at the hustings. Schroeder and Fischer virtually ran as President and Vice-President.

Another critical campaign feature was the televised debates between Schroeder and Stoiber, yet another American-style innovation. Schroeder emerged victorious in the two television duels, and this helped him keep up the momentum. Then there was tradition too. In post-War German history, no candidate from Bavaria has ever been elected Chancellor, and an incumbent Chancellor has never been denied a second term.

The conservative challenger, who had stuck to his well-rehearsed script during the earlier election rallies, suddenly changed tack in the last week of the campaign, realising that focussing exclusively on the economy might not bring him the desired results. By focussing on the economy, Stoiber wanted to project a more moderate image of himself, hoping that the public would forget the right-wing policies he implemented in his native Bavaria. Besides, the CDU-CSU was a party that had close links with the big business houses (some of which have collapsed), the most notorious being the failed Kirch media empire. So, Stoiber reverted to style and started harping on immigration and race-related issues.

In a rally attended by this correspondent in Cologne, Stoiber raised the spectre of global terrorism, saying that people from Pakistan and Yemen were gaining easy entry into Germany. He recommended that the government should introduce "finger printing" at airports and other entry points into Germany. Stoiber also made it clear that his party was against allowing new immigrants. "Only those who read and write German should have the right to German citizenship," he said at the rally.

Fortune did not favour the Party for Democratic Socialism (PDS). In a speech delivered in Berlin during the final days of the campaign, PDS leader Grigor Gysi warned the German people not to be swayed by the new posture being adopted by the Red-Green coalition. He said that the PDS was the only party that stood unconditionally for peace. He pointed out that it was Schroeder and his Foreign Minister who first involved Germany in wars outside its territory. He was referring to German participation in the U.S.-sponsored Balkan and Afghan wars.

The failure of the PDS to overcome the 5 per cent hurdle needed for representation in the Bundestag can be attributed to the success of the Red-Green coalition in donning the peace garb on issues related to Iraq and West Asia.

The PDS, whose support base is mainly in the eastern part of the country, lost some votes to the SPD, because of Schroeder's successful handling of the flood disaster. The floods had affected mainly the eastern region. Also, evidently, some voters thought that a vote for the PDS would have an adverse impact on the chances of a Red-Green victory. The absence of the charismatic Gysi on the campaign trail may have had a negative impact on the fortunes of the PDS. Gysi had quit politics temporarily after being accused of misusing office as Minister in the Berlin government. The issue was blown out of proportion by the right-wing media. The Federal authorities also indulged in a bit of gerrymandering to try and keep the PDS out of the Bundestag. This has been a long-cherished goal of the other established parties. In order to prevent the PDS from entering Parliament by getting three direct seats, the boundaries of its stronghold in Berlin, which fell in the eastern part, have been redrawn by including sections from the more prosperous western part, which is a traditional stronghold of the Greens.

The other small party the FDP (the Liberals) has not done as well as expected. This was because of wranglings within the party, which erupted in full view in the last days of the campaign. The comment of one of its leaders, Jurgen Molleman, holding Israel's present leadership responsible for the spread of anti-Semitism in Europe, has generated a controversy. Some of the FDP votes seem to have ended up in the kitty of the Greens, helping them overtake the Liberals in terms of popularity. The FDP, which wants to be the third force in German politics, had aimed at winning 18 per cent of the votes. Although it has formally kept its options tantalisingly open for political wheeling and dealing, the party is seen as a natural ally of the CDU.