Indonesia's transition

The victory of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a former General, in the Indonesian presidential elections, revives questions about the role of the military in the country's affairs.

in Singapore

THE fragility of Indonesia's democratic resurgence was put to test in the first direct presidential election recently. The peaceful polling during the preliminary and run-off rounds of the election indicated the stability of the democratic order in the world's fourth most populous country. The general elections that were held in April, were also violence-free.

The high point of independent Indonesia's first democratic experiment was during the 1955 elections. President Sukarno's own version of a tryst with destiny was later eclipsed completely by the command-politics of the Suharto era. Indeed, Sukarno's "politics with a vision" was never really revived even during the presidency of his daughter, Megawati Sukarnoputri, who succeeded Abdurrhaman Wahid.

Wahid was the first person to be chosen as Indonesia's powerful President by an electoral college in the wake of the 1999 parliamentary polls under a democratic `renaissance'.

The recent round of elections were a virtual referendum on Megawati's presidency. It is clear that she has lost to her challenger and one-time political associate Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Even as the provisional results in the slow vote-count came in, Susilo said he would claim victory only after the official announcement of the results, which is expected around October 4 or 5. Not that Susilo, a former military General, is not sure of the final outcome even after the provisional tallies, issued by the General Elections Commission itself indicate that he has secured an unassailable lead. At one stage, with over 100 million votes counted out of an estimated total of 123 million ballots cast, Susilo had secured over 60 per cent, as against Megawati's 39.1 per cent - a situation that made it impossible for her to overtake him during the remainder of the counting process.

The political message that Susilo intended to convey was that Indonesia should follow democratic norms not only in letter but also in spirit.

The politically enigmatic Megawati kept her counsel. In any case, she had rarely spoken her mind even at the height of her heyday as a charismatic leader with a committed following. At one stage, she was the epitome of a silent and suffering political dissident of the Suharto era of dictatorial governance.

Now, Susilo's advent at the centre stage of Indonesia's politics at this juncture is watched with a great deal of interest across East Asia and beyond. A general sense of political drift marked the Megawati presidency. While she never appeared to buckle under the weight of crises, including three major terrorist strikes, Megawati did not inspire confidence as a leader in command. In fact, it was rarely obvious whether she was actually in total command during any particular crisis.

As for the presidency of Wahid, a Muslim cleric with a secular outlook and an earnest vision of fair play at home and on the international stage, he was never really above power politics. His tenure, too, was dominated by erratic policies. The masterful grasp of Indonesian politics, which Wahid displayed while outmanoeuvring Megawati in the electoral college for the presidency in 1999, was almost invariably missing during his term. His tenure was cut short following the political intervention by the very same body that catapulted him to the highest executive post.

Given the fact that Indonesia's Presidents since the dramatic fall of Suharto in 1998 have not made any significant impact on the national psyche, and given also the reality that the people have not clamoured for the return of the liberty-less stability of the Suharto era, Susilo's task is truly cut out.

As of now, though, there is no indication that Susilo might face problems on account of his position as a former General in a military establishment, which has had several controversies (including allegations of human rights abuses) to answer for.

Susilo's rise to the highest political office is being seen in the context his parting of ways with Megawati rather than in the light of his credentials as a former General. He was her Coordinating Minister for Security and Political Affairs. Political ambition apart, his eventual decision to distance himself from her had something to do with policy differences within her Cabinet's inner circles. However, given Megawati's style of reticence on policy matters, very little is known of her political engagement of Susilo on such issues as the rise of terrorism in the world's largest Muslim-majority state. Moreover, Susilo has, for the most part, managed to turn the focus on the future of Indonesia in the present context rather than on the specific issues that have gone by.

Domestic economic concerns, including employment, living conditions and currency stability, dominated the election campaign. Although the September 9 terrorist strike outside the Australian Embassy in Jakarta occurred ahead of the September 20 presidential poll run-off (Frontline, October 8), security concerns did not outweigh the economic issues, insofar as popular perceptions of the checklist for a mandate were concerned. In any case, Susilo's image as a no-nonsense General, while in the military hierarchy (TNI, in local parlance), was a positive factor for him.

In a sense, therefore, the role of the TNI in Indonesia's politics has now come in for a reappraisal. Time was when the Indonesian political system, under the Suharto regime in particular, was generally characterised as a "praetorian" dispensation. The military forces were then assigned a categorical role in national politics. Their influence far exceeded anything that was indicated by the number of their nominees.

It was only recently, ahead of the April parliamentary polls and the July 5 preliminary round of the presidential election, that the TNI's automatic presence in elective bodies at the national level was done away with. Prior to this constitutional change, the TNI and the police were entitled to have their respective nominees in these bodies. The process of reducing the TNI's role in politics was itself slow in evolving.

In fact, Leo Suryadinata, a regional expert on Indonesia, has said that "unofficially, the military is still influential" although its "real power has been drastically weakened". He said: "The military-business complex has not been touched and no government can rule effectively if there is no support from the military."

Not surprisingly, among the contestants it was not just Susilo who came from a military background. Wiranto, a former TNI General, was among the five candidates in the preliminary round of the presidential poll. As no candidate reached the mandatory threshold of votes in that round, a run-off was ordered between the top two candidates, Susilo and Megawati.

Following that Megawati sought to join forces with some former adversaries in order to try and neutralise the lead that Susilo had gained over her in the preliminary round. However, as the provisional results show, her game plan did not work. Now, with Susilo having emerged the winner, his job acquires two dimensions in addition to the general need to provide an able and effective leadership. These aspects relate to the need to demystify the role of the military in Indonesia's politics and to place the country firmly behind India and the United States as the world's third most populous democracy.