Divided they stand

IT has been a long-standing wish of the international community to see the island of Cyprus reunited. For the first time since the country was partitioned in 1974, the Cypriot people were given the opportunity to decide their future in a United Nations-supervised referendum in the last week of April. The referendum was timed in such a way that if the majority so willed, both parts of the country could have entered the European Union as one nation. Unfortunately, the more populous and prosperous Greek part of the island willed otherwise. The U.N. settlement plan, drafted by Secretary-General Kofi Annan, was overwhelmingly rejected by Greek Cypriots: 76 per cent of them voted against the proposal. On the other hand, more than 60 per cent of Turkish Cypriots voted in favour of unification.

The Turkish part of the island wanted to gain E.U. membership before the May 1 deadline. That would have helped it get part of the aid package the E.U. had earmarked for Cyprus. More importantly, reintegration would have ended the international isolation of Northern Cyprus, which is recognised only by Turkey. Greek Cypriots, on the other hand, have got a large number of U.N. resolutions passed against the North. The presence of 40,000 Turkish troops has been an essential prop for the government in the North. Most of the U.N. resolutions called on Turkish troops to withdraw from the island.

The Turkish government, which until the late 1990s was inflexible on the issue of northern Cyprus, has in recent years dramatically changed its stance. After the landslide victory of Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party in the parliamentary elections in November 2002, there has been a reversal of course in Ankara. Erdogan, who replaced Abdullah Gul as Prime Minister in March 2003, came to the conclusion that as long as Turkey backed the government in northern Cyprus militarily, it would be difficult for the country to gain entry into the E.U. Erdogan made the Turkish military leadership to fall in line by convincing them that E.U. membership was more important in the long run than having a military presence in Cyprus. He has gone out of his way to build diplomatic bridges with the new Centre-Right government in Greece despite the lukewarm support Athens extended to Kofi Annan's settlement plan. After the U.N.-sponsored unification bid failed, Erdogan went on an official visit to Greece, the first by a Turkish Prime Minister in more than a decade.

Erdogan's position was markedly different from that adopted by Rauf Denktash, the President of the unrecognised Turkish Cypriot state. The recalcitrant Denktash was steadfastly opposed to the U.N. proposals. The acceptance of Annan's proposals would have meant the ceding of some of the territory Turkish Cypriots had grabbed from their Greek compatriots after the Turkish Army invaded the island in 1974. Reunification would also have ended Denktash's long hold on power. Greek Cypriot President Tassos Papadapoulos adopted an equally intransigent stand. He issued a call to Greek Cypriots to reject the U.N. plan, which envisaged a loose form of federalism between the Greek and Turkish halves of the island. In his speeches, Papadapoulos implied that Greek Cypriots were already assured of E.U. membership and hence the need to settle the reunification issue in a hurry did not arise.

The hardliners among Greek Cypriots demand the return of all the land taken over by Turkish Cypriots, along with guarantees that all the houses that once belonged to Greek Cypriots in the North could be repossessed. The Cypriot Communist Party, Akel, which is a key partner in the coalition government running Cyprus, has adopted a moderate line. Unfortunately, the Akel leadership could not influence the opinion of its support base.

Senior E.U. officials have blamed the Greek Cypriot leadership for misleading them. They said that they were given to understand that in lieu for E.U. membership, the Greek Cypriot leadership would adopt a more flexible stance on the question of reunification.

There have been calls by senior European politicians to blacklist the Greek Cypriot President for his stonewalling of the unification proposals. They also fear that Papadapoulos will use the powers bestowed by E.U. membership to try and scuttle Turkey's entry into the community. Theoretically, according to the E.U. Constitution, Cyprus now has the power to veto Turkey's entry into the community. E.U. officials feel that some influential member-states that are opposed to Turkey's entry into the community may secretly encourage the Greek Cypriot leadership to pursue an anti-Turkish agenda. The pressure on the Greek Cypriot leadership to adopt a more flexible stance from within the E.U. and the U.N. is expected to increase. There are also indications that some of the economic sanctions on the Turkish Cypriot state are going to be relaxed. For the first time in three decades, international public opinion seems to be swinging its way.