Conflicting signals

A `Tamil resurgence' rally in Jaffna reiterates the LTTE's inflexible stand on the peace process, even as meetings in London raise hopes of a resumption of talks.

recently in Jaffna

"An interim state structure possessing full powers must be entrusted to the Tamils' sole representatives, the LTTE."

- from a declaration adopted at a "Pongu Tamil" rally in Jaffna on June 27, 2003.

FOR a beleaguered peace process, pushed to the brink since April, the last week of June brought mixed tidings. Hazy hopes of a revival of negotiations between the Sri Lankan government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in faraway London contrasted sharply with a strong message from the Tigers in the form of a "civilian upsurge" in Jaffna on June 27. The rallyists loudly demanded that the Army keep out of the northern peninsula and subtly raised the LTTE's bargaining position to that of an "interim state administration" for the region.

On June 23, weeks after the Tigers had boycotted the international donors' conference in Tokyo, Oslo's Special Envoy Erik Solheim met the LTTE chief negotiator, Anton S. Balasingham, in London. Later the same day, Solheim met Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremasinghe who was in London officially to meet British Prime Minister Tony Blair. The details of these two meetings - described by Norway, the facilitator of the peace process, as "frank and constructive" - have not been made public, but the meetings have raised hopes that the talks would be revived. Sources associated with the peace process told Frontline that an assurance from the LTTE that any offer from the government would not be rejected outright, but would be considered, could well form the basis for this new-found optimism.

In sharp contrast to these good tidings was the message from the Tigers that there would be no change on their core demands and their basic modus operandi. On June 23, a top Sri Lankan police officer investigating terrorist activities was shot dead at point-blank range in Colombo. A few days later came the rally in Jaffna, which kept the popular focus on two basic political demands of the LTTE - the relocation of the Sri Lanka Army from the northern High Security Zones (HSZs), and the establishment of an interim administration.

For the third time in as many years, the "Pongu Tamil" (Tamil resurgence) rally in Jaffna, the heartland of the decades-old separatist conflict, brought into focus the current core demands of the Tigers. On the face of it, the resurgence rally was organised by the students of Jaffna University. But the predominance at the event of the LTTE's agenda for shaping "popular sentiments" was all too obvious.

"Give us our land," was the slogan of this year's Pongu Tamil. Carrying posters of LTTE leader V. Prabakaran and raising slogans that sought to evoke popular emotions, thousands of people took part in the rally in the Jaffna Medical College grounds. Civilians and schoolchildren from all parts of the peninsula were brought in buses and other forms of popular transport. "The whole day I was ferrying people to the rally ground. All of us did the same thing. We were asked to do so," said an autorickshaw driver.

Officially, the LTTE distanced itself from the event. "This is a people's response. We have got nothing to do with it," an LTTE cadre said.

The "official declaration", read out by a university student, reflected the LTTE's current position. Pitching on the theme that "normalcy has not been restored yet", the declaration said: "The clouds of war have once again appeared on the horizon, for no fault of ours." It went on "to proclaim to the world" that the Tamils are "no longer going to tolerate being pulled about hither and thither". "We wish to get back to our own homes; the occupying forces must get back to their own homes to enable us to live in our own homes," it further said.

A subtle rise in the rebels' bargaining position was clear from the resolution, which said "an interim state structure possessing full powers must be entrusted to the Tamils' sole representatives, the LTTE" and that the "international community must recognise this interim state structure".

Terming the continued presence of the Army in Jaffna "military oppression", the resolution said the Tamil people were "not in a frame of mind to think about peace " when they were "living in an atmosphere of fear".

Any mention of democracy and pluralism was significantly absent. The resolution merely said: "A situation must be created whereby the Tamil people can, in an atmosphere free of fear and insecurity, participate freely and fully to bring about peace." The core principles arrived at the Thimphu talks in 1985 were also reiterated in the form of the "fundamental aspirations" of "recognition of the Tamils as a distinct nation, recognition of the traditional homeland and the recognition of the right to self-determination".

The LTTE's position was no different from the official declaration. C. Ilamparithi, the LTTE's political leader for Jaffna, the key speaker at the rally, said: "Despite the ceasefire, there is no improvement in the normal lives of civilians. On the contrary, their lives have been darkened with fear."

Previous Pongu Tamil rallies had emphasised the demands of the LTTE, including the one to end the war, commence peace negotiations and recognise the LTTE as the sole representative of Sri Lankan Tamils. Since the demands put forward by earlier Pongu Tamil rallies were subsequently met, the resurgence rally could well be a pointer to the shape of things to come.

IF the situation in the north was one characterised by popular emotions, the government's response was one of careful optimism. On June 26, the chief government negotiator, G.L. Peiris, told journalists in Colombo that the government would shortly send a set of proposals to the Tigers, outlining the "basic features" of a "provisional interim administration" in the North.

From the time the LTTE made vocal its demand for an interim administration, Sri Lanka's conflict resolution process has hurtled into something of a circular argument. The Tigers want Colombo to spell out a "workable mechanism" for an interim administration before the resumption of talks. The Sri Lankan government, for its part, expect the LTTE to rejoin negotiations so that it could spell out what it wanted to give the latter.

The demand for "something solid on the table", as Balasingham puts it, before negotiations resumed was a clear manifestation of extreme brinkmanship. By adopting the stand that they wanted Colombo to spell out what was on offer, the Tigers put the ball in the government's court.

The past three months also witnessed a staring game of sorts, with neither the Ranil Wickremasinghe administration nor the LTTE blinking, as both had points to prove to several constituencies ever since the Tigers unilaterally snapped the negotiation process on April 21 and pushed the peace efforts to the brink.

Despite the slender hopes raised after the June 23 meetings, it is evident that the LTTE remains firm on what it wants. That the LTTE is in no haste to climb down from its demand for a politico-administrative interim state structure is also apparent.

Sticking to the stand that the government should spell out its proposals, Balasingham reportedly told the facilitators: "The LTTE cannot suggest any inputs at this stage. We expect the government to place something solid on the table so that we can work on it."

Yet another long-standing position of the LTTE relates to the distinction it makes between "basic problems" and "day-to-day problems". While the former refer to what has now broadly gained currency as the "core issues" of the conflict, the latter relate to issues such as those faced by civilians. This distinction, as previous negotiations have proved, has been fatal to any attempt to find a negotiated political settlement.

Since the commencement of the peace process by the Ranil Wickremasinghe government, "existential problems" have become the basic concern of the negotiators. Balasingham also made it clear that there had been no change in the Tigers' position that, for the moment, "day-to-day problems" gained precedence over "basic problems".

Barely weeks after the much-publicised Tokyo donors' conference came up with milestones for gauging the peace process and road maps for peace, Balasingham said: "Instead of pursuing guidelines, milestones and road maps for an imaginary solution, the talks should address crucial issues related to the harsh existential realities of the ground situation."

When it started the peace process, Colombo worked towards putting in place an "international safety net". The first serious test that the "safety net" faced was in the run-up to the Tokyo conference. The LTTE's boycott of the Tokyo meet, hence, was a reality check for the government.

Referring to the expectations raised by sections of the Sri Lankan media before the talks were stalled, Balasingham criticised "the extraordinary high profile given to each round of talks" by "propping up international press conferences that generate expectations of substantial breakthroughs within a short period of time".

Despite the Tigers continuing to fire all their guns, the slender possibility of resuming talks has raised hopes. Colombo's soft climb also reflects the political difficulties for the Wickremasinghe administration, which has staked its future on the peace process. Resuming the peace negotiations - even if it were for another phase of merely broad-ranging discussions - would be its priority. The crucial questions, however, are: will the Tigers be willing to play ball once again, and if so, why?

Balasingham's statement after the June 23 meeting is worth noting here: "Our leadership is awaiting the government's proposal for an interim administration. If a concrete set of proposals is presented, the LTTE will study the framework and suggest amendments and improvements. Thereafter, the parties could enter into negotiations to formalise and finalise the envisaged interim administration."

Given the sharp positions adopted by Colombo and the Tigers and, more important, the rivalry of the southern political parties, Sri Lanka's peace process, for the moment, remains frozen on the brink.