Fears of a global arms race

Russia's reaction to the United States' new missile defence plan has been mild, but there is concern in the Kremlin that the American move could unleash an arms race that will involve many nations and destabilise strategic relations the world over.

in Moscow

IT is not merely George Lucas' Star Wars that is making history again. The flavour of the year seems to be United States President George Bush's brand new "Son of Star Wars" project. The only difference is that the erstwhile "evil empire", as termed over the years by the U.S., is taking Bush's announcement with a rare equanimity and a show of quiet fortitude. The world at large is not amused with dangerous games, for without a doubt, gaming is wildly under way both in the newly announced U.S. plans to revive Ronald Reagan's dream of a missile defence system and in pushing through a second war on beleaguered Iraq.

Even as the U.S. government, for the first time since the 1960s, begins the process of fielding a comprehensive missile defence system one that necessarily entails the deployment of 10 ground-based interceptor missiles at Fort Greeley, Alaska, by 2004 and an additional 10 interceptors by 2005 or 2006 at least the reaction from the Kremlin to this major U.S. strategic shift on the surface borders on the indifferent. What would have earlier caused an earthquake does not seem to cause even a ripple today. In a mildly worded communique, Russia's Foreign Ministry regretted the U.S. decision to reactivate the missile shield: "Moscow with regret follows the activation of the attempt by the United States to create a so-called global anti-missile defence. Now, after taking a political decision to deploy in 2004 several strategic interceptors with support from space, the realisation of these plans has entered a new "de-stabilising phase". Russia further stressed that, "consigning its principles to oblivion can lead only to the weakening of strategic stability, a new senseless arms race in the world, including the spread of weapons of mass destruction, and diverting resources to counter today's real challenges and threats, above all, international terrorism."

It is significant that President Putin has not come out with a statement so far. Foreign Minister Igor S. Ivanov expressed regret on the U.S. decision. Strategic analysts feel that the current U.S. decision to launch a global missile deterrent system does not come as a surprise for Moscow as it was expected for some time. "I think the serious strategic debates on the topic... ended long ago," informed Ivan Safranchuk, director of the Russian branch of the international think tank, the Centre for Defence Information, in a recent media interview. He stressed that the two sides had reached a negotiable stand on this issue, "which allows the Americans to go ahead and build while Russia can go on expressing its disgruntlement without any serious countermoves or threats". He further added that the U.S. is bound to hear further echoes of "passive discontent" from Russia but nothing major will happen.

Currently, within Russia there is a degree of expectation on the issue of U.S.-Russian cooperation in the area of missile defence. Recently, Dmitry Rogozin, the head of the Russian Parliament's International Affairs Committee, told Interfax that Moscow was studying U.S. proposals on cooperation in missile defence. He also declared that Russia hoped to work with other European countries on a comprehensive missile defence system covering Europe.

Financially, the prospect of being a partner in the missile defence programme looks rather attractive to the Kremlin. Although there is growing consternation on this issue, fears are that Russia may not profit despite hopes as the U.S. and allied contractors would take away the lucrative contracts for the project. However, the two concessions being held out to Moscow are, first, assurances given by Washington in the form of treaty obligations that the U.S. will reduce its arsenal by two-thirds thereby accompanying reductions in Russia's nuclear arsenal and second, the promise of scrapping the restrictions in the START-II that have obstructed Russia from using multiple war-heads on its missiles.

Yet, Moscow-based strategic experts acknowledge that these concessions are nothing new and have been bandied about in the diplomatic arena for some time. It is also not very clear yet whether these concessions and hopes will actually translate on the ground into positive returns for Moscow. On the other hand, obvious, long-established fears of Moscow would now re-emerge with the U.S. missile defence project and form a very alive and strong undercurrent once again.

Moscow's unshakable calm may be restricted to the surface. Underneath, there is growing concern within the Kremlin. The Russians fear that this new development could unleash an arms race spanning many nations and would de-stabilise strategic relations the world over. The fear is that even as an arms race builds up in countries such as China, North Korea, and Pakistan, Russia's position could be further undermined.

Russia's nuclear arsenal is currently in the process of being reduced, and according to projections it would get steadily reduced over the next 10 years until it comes down to a third of its current strength. Simultaneously, many Russian missiles would have come to the end of their natural life and would be phased out. According to estimates, at the current rate, the country will have only 100 to 120 of the new Topol missile systems by 2010. These fears were expressed recently by a Russian parliamentarian, who said: "Russia will enter the second decade of the 21st century with a nuclear arsenal equal to that of France, Britain or China, much smaller than that of the United States. We can assume that in the near future China may surpass Russia greatly." Despite fears, Russia has been expecting this announcement from the U.S. ever since the latter walked out of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty a year ago. Sharp misgivings had then arisen in Moscow as Russian hard-liners threatened to resume deploying multi-warhead missiles that could defeat any proposed U.S. defence system.

Earlier this year, former Russian Defence Minister Igor Sergeyev said that the U.S. should put restrictions on its missile shield in order to prove that it is not targeted against Russia. He told the daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta that "unlimited missile defence assumes the active use of defence systems, and that would signal that it is aimed also against Russia". He stressed that "American defence plans must be transparent for Russia". The fact that the U.S. missile defence plan has caused unease in the Kremlin is also reflected in the statements made by the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov in March. He said that Russia would do "everything possible to counter these threats when they take shape". He further mentioned that missile defence would not become a reality until 2015-2020, and by then the Russian Army would have undergone a thorough overhaul. The fact remains that a U.S. reactivation of missile defence will trigger reactions from other countries along the same lines. Russian fears of an allout global arms race are very real as most countries will, by the logic of missile dynamics, get hooked into the race and into building missile shields.

Reports in Izvestia, the Russian daily, indicate that following the U.S. decision to withdraw from the ABM treaty Russia has begun work on its own missile defence system. The System-135 of the Moscow Missile Defence system is expected to undergo thorough restructuring within a year and installation work is expected to be completed at the Volga Radar Station near Russia's border with Belarus. The complete upgradation of the missile defence system is expected to be completed over the next few years. Reports indicate that there are plans to modernise the system's energy and mechanical equipment, a computer complex, transmitting and receiving devices and other systems.

The erstwhile Soviet Union had deployed the anti-ballistic missile system around Moscow in 1974; it consists of radars and 64 missile interceptors. It was also the first system of its kind, and in later years it was continually modified to enhance its ability to intercept ballistic missiles with independently targeted multiple war-heads. Its latest version, the A-135, which includes both long- and medium-range missile interceptors, has been in use since 1994. However, the system was in complete compliance with the ABM Treaty, which allowed Russia and the U.S. to protect a site with only 100 interceptors.

That Russian concern on this front has been high is also reflected in statements made by Ivanov during a visit to a Strategic Missile Forces base in the Ural mountains in early 2002. He said that the Strategic Missile Forces remained one of the most important factors "in the deterrence of aggressive aspirations and intentions towards Russia". He has been quoted by the news agency ITAR-TASS as saying: "Russia will develop its Strategic Nuclear Forces regardless of the relations it maintains with the United States or any other country."

The U.S.' decision to deploy a missile defence system beginning 2004 comes a year after it withdrew from the ABM Treaty in order to conduct further development of a system to shoot down long- and short-range missiles. This is the first U.S. attempt after the 1960s to field an anti-missile system, and the deployment plan calls for fielding 10 ground-based interceptor missiles at Fort Greeley, Alaska, by 2004, and an additional 10 interceptors by 2005-2006. Forward radars are expected to be deployed in the United Kingdon and Denmark to tighten the defence.

The system is expected to provide the U.S. with a limited defence against long-range missile threats, from terrorists and rogue states. Recent U.S. intelligence reports have indicated that the maximum threat is from international terrorism and "rogue" states such as North Korea, Iran and Iraq.

DESPITE hype, serious doubts have surfaced regarding the viability of the "Son of Star Wars" concept. Experts say that progress on the project has been extremely slow and results have shown several failures. They believe that the U.S. is decades away from the extremely expensive multi-layered defence shield envisaged by President Bush. There has been considerable criticism of the anti-ballistic missile defence, which aims at hitting a missile with a missile. Critics feel that this is not a fool-proof solution as the attacker can confuse the mechanism with decoys. They further argue that the actual threat posed by "rogue" states acquiring missiles that could reach the U.S. is still years away, and that diplomacy rather than defence is the better way to deal with the issue of missile proliferation.

The fact remains that with this single step, initiated by the U.S., world politics may be poised to change once again. Whether the project worth billions of dollars, which comes into its own two decades later, is worthwhile to the U.S. and Europe remains to be seen. Its impact on the world in initiating an arms race will become clear very soon. Russian fears on this front are very true, though doubts remain on whether Russia would ever join this race. It is more likely that China, North Korea, Pakistan, and several other nations will be vying to give the U.S. a run for its fears.