Garcia's return

PERUVIAN PRESIDENT-ELECT Alan Garcia at a news conference on June 9. - PILAR OLIVARES/REUTERS

Alan Garcia wins the presidential election on a nationalistic platform, with right-wing support. By John Cherian

THE victory of Alan Garcia in the final round of the Peruvian presidential election on June 4 did not come as a surprise. Ever since Garcia's emergence as the challenger to Ollanta Humala after the first round in April, it was expected that the votes of the right-wing candidates would accrue to him in the run-off. In the first round, Humala won only around 31 per cent of the vote. Garcia won only a few thousand votes more than right-wing candidate Lourdes Flores. Both of them got around 23 per cent of the vote. In the final round, Garcia won around 53 per cent of the vote with Humala trailing at 46.5 per cent.

While on the campaign trail in the second round, Garcia went out of his way to woo the elite. He supported outgoing President Alejandro Toledo's decision to sign the controversial Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the United States. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez called Toledo a "traitor" for signing the FTA. Venezuela, along with Cuba and Bolivia, is promoting the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA), which seeks to liberate the continent from the domination of the Colossus of the North - the U.S.

Garcia also resorted to high-octane nationalistic rhetoric on the campaign trail. He personalised his ideological differences with Chavez. He was successful in portraying Humala as a puppet on a string controlled from Caracas, the Venezuelan capital. The unconventional Chavez had made his preference for Humala known even before the presidential race started. This led to an exchange of political barbs between Caracas and Lima. This degenerated into trading of insults as the election date drew closer. Each side withdrew its ambassador to the other country.

Garcia roused nationalistic fervour by harping constantly on Venezuela's alleged interference in the internal affairs of his country. Garcia is close to Carlos Andres Peres, the former President of Venezuela. Chavez had led a brief military rebellion against the Peres government in the early 1990s. Garcia's APRA Party has links with the Democratic Action Party (DAP) once headed by Peres. The DAP is now hand in glove with Washington in the continuing attempts to destabilise the government in Caracas.

The government of Alberto Fujimori had made serious allegations of corruption against Garcia after his first term in office. Garcia preferred to go into exile than fight the charges in a court of law. He only returned after the fall of Fujimori five years ago. In one of his weekly "Allo Presidente" addresses to the nation, Chavez had described Garcia as a "corrupt" politician dancing to the tune of Washington. Garcia retaliated by labelling Chavez a "dictator" and an "alcoholic". Chavez is a teetotaller and he has faced the electorate more times in the past eight years than any other elected head of state.

Chavez has never hesitated to voice his opinion about the internal politics of neighbouring countries. In fact, he is among a handful of leaders who are not afraid to criticise openly the President and Secretary of State of the U.S. Chavez is an outspoken supporter of Evo Morales, who went on to win the election in Bolivia last year with a thumping majority. Chavez is now putting all his bets on the return of Daniel Ortega to power in Nicaragua. The country is to go to the polls later this year. Opinion polls put the Sandinistas ahead at this juncture but the Bush administration is working overtime to derail Ortega's candidacy. The sordid American role in destabilising the Sandinista government in the 1980s is well documented.

Chavez has never let diplomatic niceties stand in the way of speaking on issues close to his heart. Latin America's political and economic integration is one such issue. However, it is the U.S. that has never shied away from interfering openly in the affairs of Latin American countries, which it considers as its backyard. In the elections held in Columbia in the last week of May, Washington openly backed President Alviro Uribe, who was seeking an unprecedented second term in office. Uribe is America's closest political and military ally in the region. Colombia receives around a billion dollars every year from Washington. The U.S. has a strong military presence in Colombia. American forces are stationed in the country ostensibly for waging a war against drugs.

Many conservative commentators in the region say that the electoral outcomes in Colombia and Peru represent a major setback for the Left in Latin America. Garcia in his victory speech tried to lend credence to this kind of wishful thinking. "The country has sent a message of sovereignty and national independence and defeated Hugo Chavez's effort to incorporate us in his expansionist strategy," he claimed after he was declared the victor. The President-elect is keen to signal to Washington that he is the only leader in Latin America who can emerge as a counterweight to Chavez. Uribe, the official American favourite, has been careful to maintain cordial relations with Chavez, despite their ideological differences.

Garcia, during his first stint in office from 1986 to 1990, was considered a part of the Latin American Left. However, after his return from a decade-long exile abroad, he has bent over backwards to play down his image as a radical gadfly. These days he talks more about religious redemption and his trust in Western monetary institutions. Humala's political platform had called for radical reforms, including the nationalisation of key sectors of the Peruvian economy like ports, airports and energy. He had pledged to increase taxes on foreign companies engaged in exploiting Peru's vast and varied mineral resources. "I am against the neoliberal economic model. We want an economy at the service of the people and have a sense of solidarity with other Latin American countries," Humala told the Cuban newspaper Granma while campaigning.

There are many reasons why Humala could not win in his first attempt for the presidency. He is a relative newcomer to politics. Unlike Garcia, who had a well-established party to mobilise support for him throughout Peru, Humala's newly founded Unity for Peru Party (UPP) had to confront a variety of factors. Ranged against Humala was the conservative Right, representing the economic oligarchy dominated by the white elite. They are the standard-bearers of neoliberal economic policies. Many of the smaller traditional-Left parties also did not support Humala's candidacy. There were some unanswered questions about Humala's past in the military and his links with vigilante groups that were involved in the killings and disappearances of activists belonging to the Maoist Shining Path and the left-wing Tupac Amaro guerilla groups. "It is better to vote for the crook you know than one you don't know," was the refrain of many Peruvian voters. Many of them have distinct memories of the hyper-inflation, corruption and violence that characterised Garcia's first stint as President in the late 1980s.

Despite the electoral setback, Humala has emerged as an important figure in Peruvian politics. While accepting the people's verdict, the former army officer said that he and his party would play a constructive role. The UPP has the largest bloc of seats in the new legislature. Garcia will have to do business with it if he wants his new government to function effectively and pass key bills.

The people who voted for Humala come from poor rural communities and mountainous areas of Peru. Half the country gets by with around $1 a day despite the annual 7 per cent growth rate registered in the last five years. International banking institutions may have praised the outgoing government for its management of the economy but the benefits have not percolated to the masses. The outgoing President's approval rating was in single digits for a long time. It started plunging almost immediately after he assumed office, reducing him to a lame duck in less than a year. The same fate may befall Garcia if he decides to ignore the interests of the majority.