Unwieldy peace

ROBERT B. ZOELLICK, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State. - GEORGE OSODI/AP

High-level U.S. intervention has enabled the signing of a peace agreement on Darfur, which will be difficult to enforce.

THE United States-backed Darfur Peace Accord signed on May 5 between the Sudan's government and the largest rebel group, the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA), has received a cautious welcome in the region. Though the African Union (A.U.) hosted the peace talks in the Nigerian capital of Abuja, the American role in the diplomatic breakthrough was crucial. Though the Sudanese government had given its assent days before the April 31 deadline suggested by the A.U., the three main rebel groups continued to raise objections. It was the arrival of the U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Robert B. Zoellick in Abuja in the last week of April that broke the stalemate.

The European Union, Britain and the Arab League also formally support the Darfur peace deal. All of them had their high-level representatives at Abuja. U.S. President George W. Bush was quick to describe the agreement as "the beginning of hope for the people of Darfur".

The conflict in Darfur escalated after the Sudanese government signed an accord of peace and power-sharing with the rebels in the south early last year. It was obvious that the rebels were aiming for a deal as magnanimous as that between the government in Khartoum and the south. That deal was effected after the West put considerable pressure on the government of Sudan.

According to World Health Organisation (WHO) statistics, more than 70,000 people have been killed in the conflict in Darfur. Western sources cite a much higher figure. Hundreds of thousands have been left homeless and destitute.

The new agreement gives the rebels a share of power at the centre besides other major concessions. They will have majority representation in the legislatures of the three provinces in the Darfur region, and rebel leaders will join the government. Minni Minawi, the leader of the SLA, will be assuming the post of Senior Assistant to the President of Sudan, the fourth-highest position in the Sudanese government. A ceasefire will be in force from the middle of May and the victims of violence will be adequately compensated. An international donors' conference to raise funds for Darfur is scheduled to be held in a couple of months' time. Five thousand rebel soldiers will be incorporated into the Sudanese army.

The Khartoum government has also undertaken to disarm the "Janjaweed", an armed militia that is responsible for many of the atrocities that have taken place in Darfur since fighting erupted on a wide scale in 2003. Disarming the militia, according to most analysts, is easier said than done. The "Janjaweed" has been operating in the inhospitable terrain of Darfur for centuries, preying on property and livestock.

The "Janjaweed" was also not represented in the talks at Abuja. When this correspondent was in Darfur late last year, senior government officials maintained that they had no control over the militia. They also dismissed the assertion that the "Janajaweed" was an exclusively Arab militia.

The Darfur Peace Accord may ultimately lead to the presence of United Nations and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) peacekeeping forces for the first time in Darfur, a prospect viewed with alarm by many of Sudan's neighbours. Both President Bush and U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan have called for the immediate deployment of 20,000 troops under the U.N. flag.

According to reports in the American media, Bush administration officials pledged to deploy U.S. soldiers in the province to conduct a headcount of rebel fighters and incorporate them into the Sudanese army, in a bid to convince the Darfur rebels to agree to a peace deal.

The Darfur issue had become a cause celebre in American politics, cutting across the political divide. Black Congressmen in particular had lobbied the Bush administration vigorously to put pressure on the government in Khartoum. George Clooney, the Hollywood star known for his liberal leanings, participated in a march with other celebrities under the banner of the "Save Darfur Coalition" in the last week of April. Among the vociferous supporters of the "Save Darfur Coalition" are neoconservative American politicians such as Senator Tom Lantos and pro-Israeli organisations dedicated to justifying the continued occupation of Palestinian land.

The Government of Sudan has come under tremendous pressure from the West in the last couple of months following the recent surge in fighting and the rise in casualties. The violence has also destabilised neighbouring countries such as Chad and the Central African Republic. The Chadian government is facing a serious challenge from rebels.

To further complicate matters for Khartoum, Osama bin Laden, in his latest speech, called on all Arabs and Muslims to ensure that Darfur remains an integral part of Sudan, saying that Washington's game plan is to grab the vast energy resources the province is known to have.

Bin Laden's unsolicited backing was the last thing the government in Khartoum would have wished for. Even Islamist-oriented parties in Sudan have refused to subscribe to the points contained in his analysis of the situation in Darfur. Hassan al Turabi, the tallest Islamist leader in Sudan, told this correspondent in Khartoum last year that there were justifications for the rebellion and anger in Darfur against the Sudanese government. He said that the outrage among the majority of Darfurians was mainly because of the wilful neglect of their region by the government.

Interestingly, the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) guerilla group, which is said to be close to Turabi, has so far not signed the agreement. Khalil Ibrahim Muhammad, the JEM leader, in his book The Imbalance of Power and Wealth in the Sudan, has accused Sudanese of Arab origin of having disproportionate representation at the top levels of government and administration. The other rebel groups fighting the Sudanese army are expected to come on board soon. Washington has issued a stern warning to them. Robert Zoellick was quoted as telling guerilla leaders that the U.S., while being a "good friend", could also turn into a "fearsome enemy".

Bringing lasting peace to the Darfur region, a sparsely populated arid area the size of France, is going to be difficult. The troubles now seem to be inextricably linked with that of neighbouring Chad. President of Chad Idris Deby is in power only because of the French military presence in the capital Ndjamena. The Chadian President has alleged that the Government of Sudan supports the rebels in his country. Khartoum, on the other hand, has charged the Chadian government with providing sanctuary and help to some of the rebel factions in Darfur.

Over the past couple of years, Chad has started exporting oil in sizable quantities. It is said that the adjacent Darfur region also has considerable oil and gas resources waiting to be exploited. The recent developments may help the Americans get a foothold in the hydrocarbon-rich region, long dominated by the French, under the guise of "humanitarian intervention".

There are many in Sudan and in the African continent who believe that the West's ultimate game plan is to fragment Sudan. Under the terms of the peace agreement with the south, the people there have been given the right to secede. A referendum will be held before 2011 on the issue. Darfur could be next in line for secession.