Emirates dilemmas

Politics is on the back burner in the UAE, which enjoys relative peace in a region in turmoil.

in Abu Dhabi

THE winds of change sweeping the region have so far had a minimal impact on the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The authorities here are, however, not taking any chances. A few pro-democracy bloggers were briefly arrested in 2011. An online activist was stripped of his citizenship and deported to Thailand in the middle of 2012. Citizenships of four other individuals have also been revoked. The UAE government has struck a deal with the government of Comoros to issue passports to those deprived of UAE citizenship. In the run-up to the Independence Day celebrations this year, the authorities even banned the sale of Guy Fawkes masks. These masks have become a symbol of protest worldwide. Earlier in the year, the government had shut down the offices of the National Democratic Institute (NDI), funded by the United States government, in the country. The NDIs mandate is to promote democracy around the globe.

With the countrys mainly oil-based economy continuing to do well, politics remains on the back burner. Citizens are generally assured of well-paid government jobs and generous social benefits. Education and health care are free for all Emiratis. But there are an estimated 100,000 stateless bidoons, comprised of nomadic Bedouins and people who had migrated to the UAE before it became independent 41 years ago but were denied citizenship. In many of the other member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), there has been more overt turmoil. This is particularly true in the case of the Kingdom of Bahrain. The UAE has sent in a token force along with Saudi Arabia to prop up the ruling family there.

Anwar Gargash, the articulate Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, talking to the media, said that the Arab Spring could be divided into two phases. According to him, the first phase was triggered by idealistic young people but now established parties have consolidated their hold on the governments where the Arab Spring had brought about regime change. The values of the established parties did not coincide with that of the youth. Many of these parties have strong views on social issues but are not well grounded on economic issues, said Gargash. He referred to the recent events in Egypt, which is now being ruled by a government dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood. In Egypt today, the Islamists are pitted against the rest of civil society. He emphasised that politics through the ballot box would not provide simple solutions to the complex problems that plagued the region. The political parties that have gained power are all very ideological. They feel that the path they are taking is the only way forward. They will only create a faade of democracy, said Gargash. The UAE, he said, had no pretensions of being a democracy but at the same time the government was strengthening and modernising the rule of law while avoiding chaos and instability.

The Minister also said that the unfolding events in Egypt were of great importance to the rest of the Arab world. The secular section of Arab society is saying that Egypt is sliding towards dictatorship, he said. In reply to a question, Gargash, who has a PhD from Cambridge, said: Jehadis have hijacked Islam. They have destabilised Pakistan and Iraq and are now trying to hijack the revolution in Syria. The Minister said that many in the younger generation had been brainwashed by the fundamentalists. In the UAE, this situation had been rectified, the Minister claimed. The education sector is strictly monitored by the government.

But it is neighbouring Iran, and the impasse in the UAEs relations with it, that is the top foreign policy priority for the country. The sanctions unilaterally imposed by the West on Iran have had an impact on the UAE. The UAE and Iran are also embroiled in a dispute over the ownership of three small islands in the Persian Gulf. The GCC, dominated by Saudi Arabia, has also accused Iran of meddling in the internal affairs of some of its member countries. The Saudis would like to believe that the Iranian government is fuelling the popular upsurge in Bahrain.

Gargash said that though the decisions revolving round Irans nuclear file were taken in Washington, Tel Aviv and Tehran, their ramifications would have an impact on the UAE. Any Israeli attack on Iran will be a disaster. It will affect us adversely, said the Minister. Iran is part of our historic and strategic space. Iran is a big trading partner. We dont want any confrontation, the Minister emphasised. That the bilateral relations with Iran were far from rosy was evident from the Ministers observation that Tehran was interventionist in its foreign policy. Gargash said Iran would be even more interventionist if it actually went nuclear. Iran sometimes acts like a state and sometimes like a revolution. As a state it believes in international norms. As a revolution it encourages [certain] groups in countries like Lebanon and Yemen, said the Minister.

The UAE remains, of course, a staunch ally of the West, while striving to keep Tehran in good humour. Iranian banks are allowed to function in the Emirates despite pressure from Washington. There are an estimated 400,000 Iranians working in the UAE. The UAEs exports to Iran are four times higher than its imports. But the UAE feels vulnerable in a volatile neighbourhood. It hosts small Western military bases and has invested heavily in Western state-of-the-art military technology.

The UAE is also part of the International Assistance Force led by the U.S. in Afghanistan. According to the Minister of State, the UAE is helping the West in Yemen and Somalia in stopping extremists from getting a safe haven. The Gulf country also helped the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) in effecting regime change in Libya. The UAE prefers to be low profile in its foreign and defence policies unlike Qatar, its publicity- and influence-seeking neighbour. As of now most of the UAEs oil exports go through the Strait of Hormuz, a potential choke point in case hostilities erupt in the Persian Gulf. The UAE has completed work on an alternative pipeline that will take its oil to Fujairah. Fujairah is the only emirate in the UAE that is located on the Arabian Sea.

Gargash pointed out that the UAEs biggest trading partner was India, stressing that the UAEs foreign policy was not Arab-centric. The Minister of Foreign Trade, Sheikha Lubna al Qasimi, put the figure at $53 billion in 2011. She said that the figure would go up by 10 to 12 per cent in 2012. The Minister of State for Foreign Affairs revealed that doing business with India was at times very difficult as decision-making was hampered by the internal politics of the country. India has a lot of demand for gold, said Sheikha Lubna. The bulk of Indias trade with the UAE focusses on the import of gold.

The majority of the blue-collar workers in the Emirates hail from India. The Minister admitted that a lot more had to be done to improve the working and living conditions of the labour force. Improvements in the situation of labour are in progress. It will be a challenge for the next 30 years, he said.