A democratic experience

Asif Ali Zardari, PPP co-chairperson, and Nawaz Sharif, former Prime Minister and PML(N) leader, after their meeting in Islamabad on February 21.-AAMIR QURESHI/AFP Asif Ali Zardari, PPP co-chairperson, and Nawaz Sharif, former Prime Minister and PML(N) leader, after their meeting in Islamabad on February 21.

The coming together of the two largest political forces in the country for the first time raises hopes of governance by consensus.

THE first question asked about a government run by more than one political party is how long it will last? When the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League (N) announced, after emerging as the first and second largest parties in the February 18 elections, that they would join hands to form federal and provincial governments, there was surprise that the two parties had shown the political maturity to set aside their differences within four days to get down to business.

But the real question now is: what next for President Pervez Musharraf?

If the apparent chemistry between PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari and PML(N) leader Nawaz Sharif is to be taken at face value, the news cannot be all that good for Musharraf. When the two appeared at a joint press conference after their two-hour talks on government formation, their faces were bathed in big smiles for the popping flash bulbs.

However, Sharifs smile disappeared during the course of the press conference and his look changed to that of a sullen child. A person who likes complete silence and order at press conferences and even public meetings, he looked that way perhaps because of chaotic bunch of journalists at the crowded media conference. But he declared that he respected the peoples verdict in favour of the PPP and that he would work to ensure that the party completed its full five-year term.

Zardari, who has been running the PPP as its co-chairperson following the assassination of his wife and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in December, said the two parties would work together to strengthen democracy.

At the time of writing, there was no word on who the PPP parliamentary party would elect as Prime Minister, but the name of Makhdoom Amin Fahim figured on top of the list, especially after Zardari ruled himself out, saying he would take on the big responsibility of running the party. The resurgent Awami National Party (ANP) is likely to play a role in the formation of the government. The Karachi-based Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM), an ally of Musharraf, but quite willing to work with the new combine, may also be accepted on board.

It is not clear yet if the PML(N) will participate in the government or offer to give outside support. If another election becomes inevitable, Sharif, whose candidacy for this election was rejected, would prefer to keep his positions insulated from the compromises that being in government entails. On the strength of the Sharif-Zardari agreement, the PML(N) can hope for the PPPs support to form the Punjab provincial government, where it has emerged as the single largest party but does not have enough seats to rule on its own.

The coming together of the two largest political forces in the country for the first time raised hopes that a new era of governance by consensus was at hand. But more immediately, the focus is on the impact of this new alliance on the political survival of Musharraf. The denouement will depend on how each party perceives Musharrafs role if any in the next dispensation. This will also determine how long the Zardari-Sharif bonhomie will last.

For the present, with the eyes of the world on them, Zardari and Sharif have papered over their most well-known point of divergence on the reinstatement of Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhary and the restoration of all the superior judges their number is close to 60 who were ousted in Musharrafs November 3 emergency move.

In the run-up to the February 18 elections, the PML(N) adopted this as its main plank. Sharif was emphatic throughout the electioneering that talking about democracy was meaningless without accounting for the pre-November 3 judiciary. After voters overwhelmingly chose the two opposition parties over the former ruling party, the Pakistan Muslim League (Q), Sharif once again reiterated his promise to restore the judiciary.

The PPP, on the other hand, has been more guarded about committing on the judiciary issue. Benazir only once went so far as to march up to the barricades around the home of former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhary, who was placed under an undeclared house arrest following the declaration of the state of emergency, and declared that he is still the Chief Justice of Pakistan.

But she quickly withdrew from that position into the generality that the PPP stood for the independence of the judiciary, which was more important than individuals. Later, she refined this position by declaring that the next Parliament would decide whether or not to restore the judges.

Zardari too adopted the identical position in the run-up to the elections, and when the results came out, it seemed as if this difference of stand on the judiciary would prevent the two parties from joining hands to form the government.

Even hours ahead of the landmark meeting with Zardari, Sharif made a surprise appearance at a lawyers demonstration for the release and reinstatement of the former Chief Justice, pledging to personally escort him back to the Supreme Court within days. But Sharifs dramatic appearance at the barricades to express solidarity with the lawyers may have been more to reassure them on the compromise he was about to strike with Zardari.

It was late at night on the same day when the two leaders emerged to address a joint press conference after their talks. Unfolding a piece of paper before the cameras, Sharif read out what he called a brief two-line joint formulation that the two parties had no disagreement over the issue of the restoration of the judges, and that they had agreed to leave the modalities of this to the new Parliament. But this compromise can offer little comfort to Musharraf.

Both Zardari and Sharif have pointed to the verdict as the voice of the people against Musharraf. In statements, both leaders recalled that Musharraf had said he would step down if the people of the country wanted him to go. Zardari and Sharif made it clear several times after the elections that this was how they interpreted the verdict. The PML(N) chief went one step further, urging him to step down (the sooner he accepts the verdict, the better it will be for him), warning that if he did not, the issue of his legitimacy would be judged by the reinstated judges of the Supreme Court.

But unlike Nawaz Sharif, Zardari has not said in so many words that he cannot work with Musharraf. The most favourable outcome for the retired General from the hung verdict would have been for Zardari to join hands with the PML(Q), and make up the balance of numbers by striking alliances with the MQM, the party that has proved itself to be the only political force in Karachi, and the newly resurgent ANP.

Indeed, Zardaris visit to the United States Embassy to meet Ambassador Anne Patterson triggered speculation that Washington was trying to dissuade him from joining hands with a confrontationist like Sharif, or that it was even trying to seek a rapprochement between Zardari and the PML(Q). The government tried other pressure tactics on Zardari, such as pressing charges before a Swiss court of stashing illegal wealth in that countrys banks.

Musharrafs fate lies in the hands of Parliament. If it decides to reinstate Chaudhary and the other judges, the issue of his legitimacy is likely to come up before the Supreme Court once again, and there is every chance that he may be asked to step down.

His only hope is that the PPP and the PML(N) may not see eye to eye on this, and that Zardari may back off from an open confrontation with the presidency.

The U.S. too put out an important signal in this regard. While saying that America looks forward to working with the next Prime Minister of Pakistan, Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher added that it looked forward to working with President Musharraf in his new role.

Another looming issue for Musharraf is the agreement between the PPP and the PML(N) that Parliament has to be strengthened. In other words, the new Parliament could quickly move to repeal Article 58 (2) (b) of the Constitution that empowers the President to sack the government and dissolve Parliament. Benazirs insistence on this was an obstacle between her and Musharraf when they were holding negotiations back in October 2007.

Her husband is clear that he too is in favour of correcting the balance of power between the President and Parliament, and has often made reference to the sovereignty of Parliament. In his second tenure as Prime Minister, Sharif had repealed this clause but Musharraf restored it, with the caveat that the decision to sack the government would be adjudicated by the Supreme Court within a month.

If Musharraf decides to stay on, analysts say at the very least he runs the risk of becoming a lame-duck President. And the Pakistan Army, which under General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani is trying to repair the image of the institution after it took a battering all of last year on account of Musharraf, may not bail him out.