Comeback kid

Jacob Zuma trounces Thabo Mbeki in a leadership battle in the ANC resolved through the ballot for the first time in 58 years.

Newly elected party

South Africa seems to be on the verge of a radical political transition. In the landmark election held in the small town of Polokwane on December 18 for the post of African National Congress (ANC) president, Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Zuma easily defeated the incumbent, Thabo Mbeki, after a rancorous campaign. Zuma won 2,329 votes against the 1,505 votes garnered by Mbeki. This is the first time in 58 years that a leadership battle in the party has been resolved through the ballot rather than a compromise.

Barring eleventh hour surprises, the populist Zuma is now all set to become the next President of South Africa. By tradition, the ANC president becomes the next President of the country. The ANC has an overwhelming majority in the countrys parliament. The South African political establishment has been wary of the re-emergence of the charismatic Zuma. But despite the best efforts of the so-called moderate wing of the ANC led by Mbeki, it was Zuma who finally emerged triumphant. The South African media have now started calling him Tsunami Zuma.

The hard-fought election has left many raw wounds. The partys patriarch, Nelson Mandela, had sent a message to the delegates saying that he was ashamed of the infighting in the movement for which he had sacrificed so much. Kgalema Motlanthe, its secretary general, was of the view that despite the bitterness which characterised the campaign the party would continue to be resilient. However, he conceded that there was a tendency to conflate the state and the ANC, which was not good for the organisation.

Kebby Maphatsoe, the chairperson of the ANC Veterans Association, said the struggle today in the ANC was about resources. He said that the ANC was surrounded by money and state power. Tokyo Sexwale, who was himself a dark horse for the ANC leaders post, said that the result reflected a desire for change among South Africans. The people have been vindicated. Democracy in South Africa has spoken and South Africans can rest assured that we are looking forward to a good cabinet, he told the media.

Mbeki is due to step down from the countrys presidency in 2009. He is constitutionally barred from contesting for a third time. He wanted to remain the ANC president to be able to put in a candidate of his choice at the helm of the countrys affairs in 2009. It is well known that there is no love lost between Mbeki and Zuma. Mbeki will now have to serve the rest of his term as a lame duck President.

Zuma was sacked as Deputy President in 2005, after his financial adviser was jailed for fraud. He was convicted for accepting bribes from a French defence company with which the South African government had signed a multi-billion-dollar contract. Zuma was accused of taking kickbacks when he was the Defence Minister.

The case against Zuma was initially thrown out on a technicality but the prosecution filed new and more damaging charges just as the ANC conference began. An affidavit signed by the Directorate of Special Operations said that it was in possession of substantial new evidence that Zuma had received larger kickbacks than originally thought. The payments based on the old and the new evidence are therefore more than three times greater than those based on the old evidence alone, the affidavit said.

Even more damaging to the new ANC leaders reputation was the charge of rape against him by an HIV-positive woman. A court acquitted him of the charge but Zumas statement that he had a shower after sex with the woman to prevent infection is still a matter of derision, especially among the elite. Two years ago, because of his mounting problems, legal as well as personal, Zumas political career seemed virtually over. Now, after the stunning electoral blow he has delivered to a sitting President, he is hailed as the comeback kid. Even the ANC Womens League, which had expressed doubts about him, finally endorsed his candidature.

Unlike Mbeki, Zuma does not have the benefit of a university education. But he is known as a good listener and a persuasive politician. Mbeki, who studied in elite universities abroad and spent most of his youth in exile, has built up a reputation of being unapproachable and of being more comfortable in the company of intellectuals than with the masses. It was Mandela who handed over the reins of power to Mbeki.

Support for Zuma, as is evident from the outcome of the elections, comes more from the grassroots. He joined the ANC at 17 and became an active member of its military wing, the Umkhonto We Sizwe, three years later in 1962. Arrested by the racist regime, he spent 10 years in the notorious Robben Island prison. He has been identified with the more radical faction of the ANC. At public rallies, he revels in singing the liberation era song Umshini Wami (Bring me my machine gun). The song has become the anthem of Zuma supporters.

The South African establishment, which has always viewed Zuma with suspicion, seems to be slowly getting reconciled to the inevitable. Zumas candidacy was supported by the South African Communist Party (SACP), the left-leaning ANC youth wing, and the South African Trade Union Confederation (Cosatu). Their backing was crucial to Zumas political rehabilitation and eventual triumph. Cosatu has been calling on the government to loosen monetary policy and increase spending so that the benefits of South Africas economic boom are shared by the millions of unemployed and poor. The left is of the view that Mbeki has been too friendly with big business and has been presiding over a jobless growth.

President Thabo Mbeki

The unemployment rate hovers around 40 per cent. Under Mbekis stewardship, South Africa continued to be the engine of growth for the entire African continent, but his market-oriented policies have left huge sections of the black majority still in poverty. A recent study by South Africas Institute of Race Relations found that the numbers living on less than $1 a day rose from 1.9 million in 1996 to 4.2 million in 2005.

Mbeki strongly refutes these statistics. It cannot be denied that under Mbeki there have been achievements. More than 2.4 million homes have been constructed for the poor. In his recent address to the nation, Mbeki claimed that poverty levels had dropped since the advent of democracy in 1994. At the same time, he admitted that the growth in the income of the wealthy had been rapid, leading to a widening of the disparity between the rich and the poor. He has attracted a fair amount of criticism for his failure to assess the magnitude of the problems created by the AIDS pandemic. More than 900 South Africans die of the disease every day.

Before the election, a confident Zuma embarked on a fortnight-long visit to important foreign capitals, including New Delhi. The main purpose of the trip was to assure the international community that no dramatic changes were in the offing. Zuma has promised that South Africa under him will stick to free market economics. But his main support base expects him to do much more for the poor and the working class. Zumas supporters look on him as a messiah who will usher in radical economic and social changes.

There are apprehensions in some quarters that a Zuma presidency may bring about some changes in the countrys foreign policy. Under Mbekis leadership, South Africa has been a key player in Africa and has been troubleshooting in crisis zones. Mbeki has played an important role in bringing about a fragile peace in countries such as Ivory Coast and Burundi. Importantly, when it came to the crunch, Mbeki, reflecting the solidarity forged during the decolonisation struggle, always supported Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe against destabilisation bids by the West. But Mugabes crackdown against the trade union movement has angered the SACP and Cosatu. Zuma himself is said to be critical of the way Mugabe has handled the economic and political crisis in his country.

Many commentators in South Africa have started speculating about a crisis scenario emerging as a result of the hard-fought party election. There is apprehension in some quarters that Mbeki could target Zuma using the wide powers of the presidency. Before the election, corruption charges against him were revived, raising the possibility that Zuma could still go to jail before Mbekis term ends.

Zuma steadfastly continues to maintain his innocence. He said he would quit the presidential race only if found guilty by a court. Zumas supporters have accused Mbeki of conducting a witch-hunt against his political opponents. A recent opinion poll shows that 40 per cent of black South Africans think that the corruption charges against Zuma are an attempt to discredit him politically.

Theoretically, the ANC, which is now under the leadership of Zuma, can pass a no-confidence motion in parliament against Mbeki and advance the general elections. But after the party elections, both Mbeki and Zuma have pledged that the ANC will remain united.

Zuma has publicly disavowed talk about displacing Mbeki before his term gets over. However, many of Zumas left supporters have already started demanding that he call for early elections.

One thing is now certain: South African politics will no longer be predictable and boring with Zuma taking centre stage.