THE three-week-long political paralysis in the unity government in Zimbabwe ended on November 5 after the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), led by Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, ended its boycott of the Cabinet. The boycott was prompted by a superior court decision to try on charges of sedition Deputy Agriculture Minister Roy Bennett, a white Zimbabwean farm owner who is a prominent supporter of the MDC and a key adviser of Tsvangirais.
Before independence, Bennett was with the white minority regime led by the notorious Ian Smith. Arms were found on his farm earlier in the year. Government investigators alleged that he was involved in a plan to overthrow the government.
Tsvangirai denied that the Bennett case had influenced his decision to announce the boycott. But observers feel that it is no coincidence that the MDCs move came immediately after the courts decision to prosecute Bennett.
Most Zimbabweans will be happy with Tsvangirais decision to rejoin the Cabinet. The Prime Minister was evidently advised by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) not to precipitate another crisis in the long-suffering country. Since the formation of the unity government, the shattered economy has been showing signs of recovery. The United States dollar has now become for all practical purposes the official Zimbabwean currency. It has been used widely since 2007 when inflation started going out of control.
Although prices remain high, commodities such as bread and cooking oil are now freely available in the cities. Many shops in major cities such as Harare (the capital) and Bulawayo have not yet reopened, but Indian- and Chinese-owned stores are doing brisk business. The parallel economy has disappeared. However, there are reports that in rural areas the suffering continues, mainly because people do not have access to American dollars. Many of the factories that closed are yet to reopen, and the unemployment rate remains high.
The government is trying to boost sectors such as tourism, which at one time provided a significant contribution to the economy. One gets the best view of the magnificent Victoria Falls from the Zimbabwean side. The countrys wildlife reserves are well stocked with the big five: lions, leopards, elephants, rhinos and wild buffalos. The added attractions of the Eastern Highlands and the historical Great Zimbabwe, a World Heritage site, have the potential to make the country a rival to Kenya and South Africa as far as tourism is concerned.
Walter Mzembi, the Minister of Tourism, told this correspondent that he expected tourism once again to play an important role in the economy. He said the sector had recovered to a great extent and accounted for 16.1 per cent of the gross domestic product in 2007. The Minister was quick to emphasise that the GDP had shrunk substantially since the late 1990s. Mzembi said that the tourism sector, like all other sectors, took a hit in 2008, which he described as a a lost year, because of the internal political turmoil. His Ministry is doing its best to remove negative global perceptions about Zimbabwe and market it as a premium tourist destination. The Minister wants Indian companies to invest in the sector, noting that 30 per cent of all the tourists who visit South Africa also come to Zimbabwe.
Zimbabwe has the lowest crime rate in the region. Its people enjoy the highest literacy rate (98 per cent) in Africa. Mzembi, who represents the Zimbabwe African National Union Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) in the Cabinet, said the recent actions of the MDC would affect the revival of the economy and would further delay the lifting of Western sanctions. He said what was being witnessed in Zimbabwe today was a reflection of the urban-rural divide.
He pointed out that even during the countrys long and bloody liberation struggle the main source of support against the racist regime came from the rural areas, where 60 per cent of the population lives. The support for the goals of the liberation struggle is still strong in the rural areas, the Minister asserted. As the results of last years elections showed, the rural populace is still with the ZANU-PF. There is evidence to show that the agrarian reforms carried out by the government benefited a significant chunk of the rural populace.
The government seems to be of the view that the quickest way to jump-start the economy is by opening its mining sector to outside investors. Zimbabwes mineral deposits are considered to be second only to those of Sudan, and most of them are still untapped. Rich new deposits of diamonds, chromium, platinum and copper have been discovered. The U.S. State Department recently stated that the export of minerals could help Zimbabwe recover economically. The report said that the country was also richly endowed with coal bed methane. Zimbabwe also has large uranium deposits. America and the West are no doubt keen to get their hands on the countrys mineral resources.
The ZANU-PF has been saying that the Wests game plan is to do this through the auspices of the MDC. President Robert Mugabe, leader of the ZANU-PF, said in a speech last year that the sun no longer rises in the West, it rises in the East, as the government tried to secure more investment from and loan deals with China.
In fact, many Zimbabweans feel that an Angola-type deal with China on the exploitation of the mineral resources will speedily put the economy back on track. China gave Angola a $2-billion cash injection in 2005 to rebuild its war-shattered economy. The soft loan helped Angola ward off stringent demands from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)/World Bank for economic and political reforms. In exchange, China was given contracts to exploit the countrys strategic deposits. Zimbabweans hope that China will bail their country out in a similar fashion. Zimbabwes external debt is currently at $5.7 billion.
Finance Minister Tendai Biti, who belongs to the MDC, seems to be more focussed on gaining popularity among the urban middle class. He has allowed the duty-free import of alcohol. Although some essential food items are still in short supply, imported beer, wine and whisky from all over the world are available in plenty. Bitis admirers have described him as Africas best Finance Minister.
Both the ZANU-PF and the MDC are claiming credit for the dollarisation of the economy. The decision to scuttle the Zimbabwean dollar was taken in January, just before the unity government was formally sworn in. The Zimbabwean dollar has literally been thrown into the dustbin. This correspondent saw the currency notes scattered on the ground at a busy marketplace in Harare. Only the 30-trillion dollar note seems to have some value: it is being hawked to tourists as a souvenir.
Professor Sam Moyo, Executive Director of the African Institute of Agrarian Studies, is of the view that economic recovery will take some time. He pointed out that Zimbabwes economy had been virtually cut off from the rest of the world for the last 10 years.
Zimbabwes problems, according to Moyo, started when the government refused to implement the IMFs Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1996. Economic meltdown followed as a result of the country being denied essential funding by international financial institutions and the withdrawal of private capital.
Moyo, who has written extensively on agrarian reforms, said that after the government started its land reforms programme in response to growing nationalist demands in 1997, there was an immediate response. The non-governmental organisations (NGOs) opposed to the governments programme helped form the MDC. Since then the NGOs and the MDC have been acting in tandem. Moyo said that the governments problems were further compounded by the prolonged drought that followed the introduction of land reforms.
Moyo says that the unity government as it exists today does not have a functioning administration. International agencies are funnelling funds through NGOs. Owing to the alarming decline in revenue generation in the last decade, there is very little money for budget allocation. The budget has shrunk by one-fifth. It was hoped that the participation of the MDC in government and its handling of key portfolios, such as Finance, would lead to the lifting of the sanctions imposed by the West.
Recent moves of the MDC have shown that it is not in a hurry to convince its friends in the West to lift the sanctions. Its major preoccupation seems to be to precipitate new elections under international supervision. Voice of America (VOA) reported in August that the MDC would sweep the polls if elections were held immediately. The report was based on the result of an opinion poll whose credibility is challenged by the ZANU-PF.
The ZANU-PFs focus, on the other hand, according to Moyo, is to end the countrys international isolation and to revive its economy. The government is wooing countries such as China and India to come and invest in lucrative sectors such as mining. Many in the ZANU-PF leadership would like to drive a hard bargain with foreign investors. They want to replicate the Bolivian model where the state retains up to 60 per cent of the revenues.
China is among the countries that offered Zimbabwe credit and soft loans at a time when the country most needed it. When international banking institutions cut off funding and the West implemented a trade embargo, most African countries continued to do business with Zimbabwe. China was the other notable investor, but it was careful to coordinate its policy on Zimbabwe in close cooperation with South Africa. The South African government played a key role in mediating an end to the political impasse that paralysed the country in 2008.
There are few Zimbabweans willing to bet on a peaceful transfer of power through the ballot box. War veterans (who fought in the liberation war) and their allies are not willing to see their country come under the influence of its former colonisers once again. The security establishment, according to analysts in Harare, remains steadfastly opposed to the MDC and the West. Moyo, however, feels that a section of the ZANU-PF leadership could capitulate in the face of unrelenting pressure from the West. The threat to prosecute prominent leaders of the ZANU-PF in the International Criminal Court and the travel bans on the leadership could have an impact on the future course of politics.
The prospect of a civil war will increase as nationalist ideals clash with bread-and-butter issues, warns Moyo.
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