A coup in Canberra

Julia Gillard swiftly topples Kevin Rudd to become Australia's first woman Prime Minister without being seen as a power grabber.

in Singapore

BY any standard of changing a head of government in a democratic country, the fall of Kevin Rudd as Australia's Prime Minister and Julia Gillard's ascent to that high office on June 24 ranks as a top-order political thriller. It was a political coup carried out at the speed of thought. Also unmistakable was the precision with which the action was carried out. This left some experts wondering whether the ruling Labour Party and the country's political system could easily absorb the suspected long-term effects of such a lightning strike.

Julia, 48, was Deputy Prime Minister when she toppled Rudd, who scripted Labour's formidable game-changing triumph in the general election in November 2007. In her swift and effective move, which took Rudd by surprise, and the way she settled down as the new Prime Minister, Julia demonstrated a sure political touch. It looked as if she was consciously seeking to allay the fears of pundits about the resilience of Australia's system of governance.

Born in Wales, Julia migrated to Australia as a child with her family in 1966. She studied arts and law in Adelaide. Proactive on the university campus, she became national president of the Australian Union of Students in 1983. Somewhere along that trajectory, she became associated with the political values of the Left. Julia later worked, not for long, as a solicitor with a law firm.

Beginning her political career as a chief of staff in Victoria in 1996, she hit the federal trail when she was elected to the House of Representatives in 1998. Since then, she has consistently raised her political profile to the point of now being seen as a leader with a mind of her own. Yet, for becoming the first woman Prime Minister of Australia, Julia did not of course set out to crash [her] head on any glass ceilings as she put it in her opening address to the nation.

The high drama of change, as it unfolded in the public domain, began around dusk on June 23. For many Australian politicians and observers alike, it was news in the original sense of the term when they heard that Julia had sought a leadership change within the ruling Labour camp.

For hours thereafter, Rudd was expected to resist the move in some form. It was thought that a contest might take place, if necessary, on the morning of June 24.

At that stage, as the stories of this amazing development did the rounds, some Australian experts were still wondering whether it was a practical joke after all. The reason for such genuine doubts was that Rudd was not seen as a failed Prime Minister despite his somewhat dismal popularity dip in the opinion polls at that time.

The political theatre almost invariably conceals the out-of-sight backstage manoeuvres. Such a general maxim became evident as Rudd found himself pushed out of power on the morning of June 24. Contrary to the initial expectations that he would not go down without a political fight, Rudd resigned. In the event, a clearly distraught Rudd could not even claim to have spared his party a bruising power struggle at the top.

Completely isolated

As Australian politicians and observers later pointed out, Rudd found himself completely isolated in the Labour caucus by the morning of June 24. That left him with a Hobson's choice of making way for Julia's climb to the top without any challenge at all.

However, questions were raised in the public domain about the political morality of Rudd's unceremonious overthrow. The general refrain was that he deserved a better deal, at least a better chance to explain himself. Not long after taking over a rudderless Labour, Rudd rejuvenated the party and led it to a remarkable victory in the 2007 general election.

In the process, he tamed a veteran political leader like John Howard. So ran these arguments, which were laced with the idiom of a fair deal for Rudd and a fair test of Julia's political style.

Rudd, for his part, gracefully bowed out of the centre stage of Australian politics, pledging to work for Labour's re-election in due course. A strong view in the party camp and outside was that he brought the political misfortune on himself by shunning the consultative Cabinet-style governance. He was supposed to have proactively practised the principle of prime ministerial prerogative as defined by Richard Crossman and others at one stage in 20th century British politics. In this perspective, Rudd's fall from the favour of his Cabinet colleagues became easy to explain.

Lack of conviction

A ready explanation for Rudd's loss of popularity in the public opinion polls was that he was seen to have not had or lost the courage of conviction on sensitive issues such as climate change. His ruinous failing, as portrayed in the aftermath of his downfall, was that he did not display sufficient political stamina to push for the promised carbon pricing. Unsurprisingly, in such a political climate of judgment on Rudd's record in office, Julia stole the political show by being as thoughtful and sensitive during her innovative ascent to power as he was during his forced exit from the helm.

Julia, already known for pragmatic firmness as Rudd's deputy, now rose to the political occasion of her own making. Shortly before being sworn in as Prime Minister by Governor-General Quentin Bryce in Canberra, she told reporters that the leadership change was designed to prevent a good government such as Rudd's losing its way any further.

Nonetheless, as she was not an elected Prime Minister at this stage, she would certainly seek a mandate in the coming months. Not only that. She would follow the political nicety of moving into the Prime Minister's official residence only if she were so elected by the people in the promised polls.

With the next general election due well before the end of the year, her comments showed that she would like to seek the people's mandate prior to the mandatory timeline.

Julia's promises

Praising Rudd, Julia said: He made wonderful history by saying sorry' to the indigenous Australians. He was the leader who withdrew our troops from Iraq and had the foresight to reinforce our commitment in Afghanistan. And, he came within a breath of brokering an international agreement on climate change.

In a subtle and subdued indictment of Rudd on the climate change issue, Julia said: If elected as Prime Minister, I will re-prosecute the case for a carbon price at home and abroad. Taking up another major contentious issue in contemporary Australian politics, she promised to seek consensus on the proposed Resources Super Profits Tax. Towards this aim, she said negotiations will occur with the Australian mining industry.

Such fine-tuned political sound bites were not the only stuff of Julia's initial agenda of wooing an electorate which, in her opinion, was beginning to drift away from Labour under Rudd's stewardship. While unseating him, she did not fight shy of citing her electoral calculus as one of the factors that drove the leadership change. Given her known preference for firm and practical governance as different from a grand universe of good ideas, Labour's ability to get re-elected would depend not only on policies of long-term good for the country but also on the style of governance itself.

Outlining stability and teamwork as the hallmarks of her Cabinet-style of governance, she retained Rudd's Ministry, minus of course the former Prime Minister. Of her own previous portfolios, the title of Deputy Prime Minister was conferred on the Treasurer, while education and other subjects were given to Simon Crean, who was divested of Trade. Foreign Minister Stephen Smith was given the additional charge of Trade. Such minimal portfolio changes were designed to showcase a certain continuity of the Rudd innings, now steered by a resolute captain in the place of a less spirited leader. This was Julia's discernible intention. The focus was on her as the new captain rather than on the Cabinet-team and the party, both of which would, in her theme song, stay as her partners.

Julia's ratings in the public opinion polls, especially as Labour's prime ministerial candidate at the election later this year, rose noticeably above those of Rudd's before his fall. The presumptive opposition candidate found himself trailing badly behind Julia and Labour's victory quotient, too, rose in these opinion polls.

These opinion surveys were also indicative of how she smartly unseated Rudd without attracting odium as a power-grab specialist of the kind not known to Australian politics. As this report is written in early July, Julia stayed ahead of all others on the domestic political scene.

On the international stage, she missed the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Canada. Having unseated Rudd on the very day he was scheduled to leave for the summit, she sent the new Deputy Prime Minister to represent Australia. Thereafter, Julia reaffirmed that Australia would stay the course as a long-standing ally of the United States. Beyond that, her foreign policy priorities and overall world view, perhaps still in the making, were not spelt out.