Arab winter

Egypt: An Islamist President is elected even as an intricately networked dictatorship stages a comeback.

in Cairo

Normally, a presidential election held after the toppling of a hated dictator in a popular uprising should be a joyous occasion a celebration that marks the culmination of a legitimate process of political transition, steered collectively by the people who have chosen the ballot over coercion to shape their destiny.

But this familiar script has not been followed in Egypt, where Mohamed Morsy, a Muslim Brotherhood candidate, is set to become the countrys first elected President. A power grab a few days ahead of the final round of polling by a military clique called the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) has interrupted, if not derailed, Egypts transition to democracy. SCAFs avoidable intervention turned the presidential election overnight into a grim tussle between those who recognised and were desperate to stem the high tide of counter-revolution, and the remnants of the old guard, well networked with the military and big capital, equally determined to stage a comeback.

Egypts military-led administrations first target seemed to be Parliament, which had been freely elected nearly six months ago. In a stunning judgment, less than a week before the elections, the highest court of the land dissolved Parliament and opened the door for SCAF to take pervasive control of legislative and financial powers. The courts ruling expectedly generated a political firestorm, with accusations flowing thick and fast that under SCAFs watch Egypt had witnessed a judicial coup. Soon after the courts order, Abdel Moneim Abul Fotouh, a moderate Islamist and a former presidential candidate, alleged that the collusion between SCAF and the judiciary had resulted in a military coup.

But far from being despondent, he predicted that the militarys stratagem to manipulate and usurp power would be short-lived. Anyone who believes that Egypts millions of revolutionary youth will allow this to pass must be delusional, he asserted. Egypts young activists, who were at the heart of the uprising that toppled Hosni Mubarak, agreed that the ruling marked a major assault on their aspirations for democracy. We are now legally, constitutionally, and directly under military rule/dictatorship, tweeted Gigi Ibrahim, a young activist who emerged as one of the stars of the 18-day revolt that brought down the autocratic rule of Mubarak in January 2011. Many youth activists were of the view that the courts ruling was part of a larger plot hatched by SCAF to bring back the remnants of the Mubarak regime to power. Ahmed Maher, the founder of the April 6 Youth Movement that pioneered the anti-Mubarak uprising, described the order as provocative: The verdict means the ousted regime is being re-established and revolution must continue, he said.

Others in the youth brigade also concluded that the protesters must now be prepared for the long haul, notwithstanding the inability of the liberals so far to meld a pro-revolution critical mass. No revolution gets settled in 18 days or 18 months. If we all agree that this is a war with the regime that will last for several years, then why is everyone suddenly panicking and saying its over? wrote Hossam El-Hamalawy, a social activist on the website jadaliyya.com.

The court had also ruled that Ahmed Shafiq, Mubaraks last Prime Minister and the face of the counter-revolution, would be allowed to run for the presidency despite the passage of an earlier law by Parliament, endorsed by SCAF, which prohibited members of the former regime from running for office.

The ruling left little doubt that the high judiciary, gelled during the Mubarak era, had become a tool of the military top brass to siphon off power from a democratically elected Parliament. The conspiracy to grab power also seemed to have considered all the other familiar ways in which the opposition could stage a counter-attack. Anticipating street protests probably radiating out of the iconic Tahrir Square to raise public awareness about the militarys misdeeds, SCAF had armed itself with draconian powers. Just ahead of the judicial coup, it decreed that the army could carry out arbitrary arrests and haul detainees before military courts, a clear expression of its readiness to deny people civil liberties and basic human rights. Many saw in the measure sharply defined lines of a re-emerging police state.

SCAF diktat

But the military top brass was not finished yet. As the counting was under way and a dispirited public seemed distracted, yet another decree aimed at sapping the power of an elected presidency was issued. The generals ruled that the incoming President would not have the power to declare war unless SCAF approved of the decision. The message was clear a civil administration had no right to curtail the hefty powers and privileges that the military had accumulated over decades. Another notification further clarified SCAFs mindset of functioning as a state within a state. The website of the Egyptian daily Al Ahram reported that SCAF had formed a military-dominated National Defence Council. While it would be headed by the President and also include the Speaker of Parliament, the Defence, Interior and Foreign Ministers, it would be packed with officers drawn from the military. These include, among others, the chief of staff of the armed forces, the naval and air force chiefs, the chief of military operations, the director of Egyptian general intelligence and the chief of the military judiciary. The announcement had the distinct flavour of deja vu, reminiscent of the old Turkish model where real power was concentrated in the military despite the presence of an elected civil administration.

Already, the military seems to have made up its mind to curtail the longevity of Egypts first elected presidency. In an interview with Al Jazeera, Sameh Ashour, the head of SCAFs advisory council, said that the incoming President would last only until the time a new Constitution was drafted. The upcoming President will occupy the office for a short period of time, whether or not he agrees, observed Ashour. His office term will be short despite the huge efforts exerted in the election campaigns.

Familiar with all the tricks in the trade of keeping rivals out a legacy of Mubaraks 29 years of authoritarian rule SCAF has ensured that a new Constitution is drafted in such a way as to defend its core interests. Under its new ruling, SCAF can appoint a new constituent assembly, in case the one emerging from the dissolved Parliament, which is already in existence, encounters obstacles. The draft Constitution will then be subjected to a public referendum. Egypts democracy campaigners reacted with dismay as the implications of the militarys decision to stamp its diktat on all organs of the post-Mubarak state began to sink in. The new constitutional declaration completed Egypts official transformation into a military dictatorship, wrote Hossam Bahgat, director of Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, in an online comment. Mohamed ElBaradei, elder statesman and former Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said that the militarys declaration was a grave setback for democracy and revolution. SCAF retains legislative power, strips president of any authority over army and solidifies its control, he tweeted. The Muslim Brotherhood condemned the decree as null and unconstitutional.

Mobilising street power

Aware of the challenges that lie ahead, the Muslim Brotherhood has correctly sensed that irrespective of Morsys impending elevation to the presidency, public celebrations or grandstanding are luxuries that it can ill-afford. Familiar with SCAFs predatory instincts, the Brotherhood is, instead, preparing for agitations in the days ahead to preserve whatever little remains of Egypts fast receding democratic space. While it has decided to engage the military in a political dialogue and has planned to impose pressure on it by knocking at the doors of the judiciary, it is focussing in earnest on mobilising street power, as a preparation for a prolonged confrontation with SCAF.

The Muslim Brotherhoods June 19 demonstration kick-started a new phase of anti-SCAF agitations. Rejecting the ruling that dissolved Parliament, Brotherhood lawmakers decided to file into the Peoples Assembly building although an armed guard had been placed outside to prevent their entry. It has planned a large-scale street agitation on June 30, the day when the ruling generals hope to officially hand over power to the civilian administration.

In yet another instance of defiance against SCAF, the 100-member constituent assembly met in the debating chamber of the dissolved Parliament on June 18 and elected the head of Egypts judiciary, Hussam El Ghuriany, as its chairman. Ghuriany pledged that a charter protecting minority rights would be drafted swiftly. Summing up the combative mood in the Muslim Brotherhood camp, Mohamed Beltagy, a Member of Parliament, wrote in an online comment: The revolution continues, and the political path cant be victorious on its own. He added: When we were divided, the counter-revolution was able to gather its forces.

But forging a new sense of unity is easier said than done. Over the past year, the Muslim Brotherhood has been criticised for working opportunistically either by hobnobbing with SCAF and keeping pro-democracy campaigners of a liberal and leftist persuasion in the dark or pushing an Islamist agenda in the dissolved Parliament.

Hopefully, the run-up to the elections has served as a wake-up call to the fact that while Mubarak is gone, an intricately networked dictatorship, which includes the military top brass, big business and landlords, is impatient to stage a comeback.

The elections have also shown that in a divided Egypt, Islamists and secularists are nearly evenly split. It no longer requires a rocket scientist to figure out that unless the liberals and Islamists unite into a working coalition against SCAF, the crafty military elite will manage to outwit them again.

On their part, some of the liberal activists disenchanted with both Morsy, the Islamist, and Shafiq, a Mubarak-era remnant, may have got it wrong when they decided to boycott the elections. Their absence at the polling stations was acutely felt in Cairo, where Shafiq triumphed over his Islamist rival by a wide margin. Similarly, Hamdeen Sabbahi, the rising star among the secularists, may have missed the point when he recently announced the formation of a secularist coalition that would equally oppose the Muslim Brotherhood and the SCAF.

Among the pro-democracy campaigners, Hamalawy, the socialist, may have hit the nail on the head when he wrote in his insightful piece that the revolutionary camp lacks a coherent united front that coordinates between the different revolutionary groups in the capital and the provinces. He warned: And in such tough times, when the counter-revolution is in full steam, the need for such an organisation becomes more urgent.