As state visits go, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s was a short one, but during his stay in New Delhi, he did sign a raft of agreements, including the key one relating to the sale of the S-400 air missile defence system. Putin was in New Delhi in the first week of October to attend the annual India-Russia summit, which was held at a time when tensions were escalating between Washington and Moscow over a host of issues.
India had signed security and defence agreements with the United States that virtually made the country a military ally of Washington. The high-level two-plus-two talks in New Delhi in September involving the Defence and Foreign Ministers of both countries was an illustration of the growing closeness between the two countries. No similar mechanism for bilateral talks exists between India and Russia even though the strategic and military relationship between New Delhi and Moscow is much older and time-tested.
The Donald Trump administration had strongly signalled to the Indian government that it was against the S-400 deal with Russia. The U.S. had also warned that it wanted all countries to stop buying Iranian oil before the end of the year. The threat of punitive action under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) was invoked by senior U.S. officials visiting Asia against countries buying oil from Iran or signing defence deals with Russia. The Trump administration had imposed sanctions on a Chinese company that had purchased the S-400 missiles just two weeks before Putin’s scheduled visit to India.
After a period of apparent hesitation brought about by overt arm-twisting by the U.S., the Indian government went ahead and finally signed the $5.43-billion S-400 missile deal with Russia. It is the second biggest defence deal signed during the tenure of the Narendra Modi government. Only the controversial Rafale deal with France is pricier. It has been reported in sections of the Indian media that National Security Adviser Ajit Doval was among those in the senior echelons of government arguing against the signing of the S-400 deal.
Before Putin’s visit, Doval was in Washington meeting top Trump administration officials. The main topic of discussion reportedly centered around India’s purchase of the S-400 missile systems from Russia and its relations with Israel.
The Indian Air Force (IAF) had been insisting on the S-400 system, reputedly the best and most cost-effective in the world, to make up for its lack of fighter planes. The IAF has around 32 squadrons at present; the IAF leadership wants at least 42. The S-400 has a range of 400 kilometres. The Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) system, the U.S.’ answer to the S-400, has a range of only 180 km. In any case, the U.S. has not yet offered to sell it to India.
Sanctions on India?
Speaking to the media in Washington in the second week of October, Trump said that India would find out, sooner rather than later, whether it would be the target of punitive CAATSA sanctions following the Modi government’s decision to purchase the S-400 weapons system from Russia. Only the U.S. President has the right to grant a waiver under the CAATSA.
India has extended an invitation to Trump to be the chief guest for next year’s Republic Day Celebrations, but Trump has not confirmed his participation so far. Most experts are of the view that he will exempt India from CAATSA-related sanctions. The U.S. is all set to replace Russia as the biggest arms supplier to India. India, along with Saudi Arabia, is among the biggest buyers of armaments globally. Imposing sanctions on India will be counterproductive for the U.S. military-industrial complex.
After the S-400 deal was finally signed, both sides ensured that there was not too much discussion about it. The deal was only mentioned in passing in the joint statement released during the Putin visit. Only one sentence in the 68-paragraph-long joint statement mentioned the agreement. “The sides [New Delhi and Moscow] welcomed the conclusion of the contract for the supply of the S-400 long range surface to air missile system to India,” it said. There was also no mention of other military cooperation agreements on the verge of being signed by the two countries.
Modi went out of his way to avoid mentioning the S-400 deal in his press statement following his summit meeting with Putin. More defence deals are said to be in the pipeline, including the signing of a $2-billion deal to buy Krivak 111-class frigates for the Indian Navy and a $1.5-billion contract to manufacture 200 Kamov-226 light helicopters. The Russian Ambassador to India, Nikolay Kudashev, has expressed confidence that a deal to manufacture Kalashnikov assault rifles in India will be signed soon. He said that the threat of the U.S. imposing sanctions on India under CAATSA was being used to put “political pressure” on India and was an example of “unfair competition”.
Modi’s press statement was full of praise for Putin’s statesmanship and the Russian leader’s “personal” contribution to the strengthening of the “unique” bilateral relations. In his welcoming statement, Modi said that an “old friend is better than two new ones”. Modi’s rhetoric was meant to reassure the Russian President that India’s growing closeness to Washington would not necessarily lead to long-term strategic realignment. Modi said that the two sides discussed all “international issues of mutual interest” and added that both Delhi and Moscow had “common interests” relating to the issues of terrorism, Afghanistan and the “Indo-Pacific”.
Russia’s suspicion
It is not a secret that Russia looks with suspicion at India’s growing strategic proximity to the U.S., and Japan in the Asia-Pacific region. Russia is averse to using the term “Indo-Pacific”, recently coined by the Trump administration for the region. China is Russia’s main military and strategic partner today. Their militaries had staged their biggest war games together in September. Interestingly, with the acquisition of the S-400, India will be the second member of the BRICS (Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa) grouping to have the missile defence system after China. The U.S. policy in the Asia-Pacific, which India seems to be subscribing to, is blatantly aimed at militarily encircling China and keep tensions boiling in the South China Sea.
The two sides are more closely aligned on the issue of terrorism and the violence in Afghanistan and the wider region. The Indian government had chosen to take an uncompromising stance on the Taliban, preferring to label it as a proxy of Pakistan. Russia, China and most of Afghanistan’s neighbours were much more realistic in their attitude towards the Taliban. The Taliban was being viewed as increasingly indispensable for the achievement of durable peace in Afghanistan by these countries.
India is also now belatedly giving its full support to the “Moscow format” that seeks a quick solution to the crisis in Afghanistan. The Trump administration has also veered to the position that the Taliban will have to be involved in the peace process if the U.S. is to make a face-saving exit from Afghanistan. During the India-Russia summit, the two sides pledged to boost economic ties. At the Russia-India Business Forum, the Russian Economic Development Minister, Maksim Oreshkin, confidently predicted that the trade turnover between the two countries would exceed $30 billion and investments would rise to $50 billion by 2025. Currently, bilateral trade between the two countries stands at a modest $10 billion.
India has proposed the setting up of a special economic zone for Russian business in the country and a “green corridor” to expedite smoother trade between the two countries. As of now, the economic relationship is centred on arms sales. Russia continues to be the biggest supplier of defence weaponry to India.
Most analysts and observers of the region are of the opinion that if meaningful progress has to be made in strengthening economic relations, India will have to participate in the Belt Road projects as well as the Eurasia Economic Union. China and Russia are playing key roles in both these undertakings.
India has watered down its objections to the Belt Road project but remains opposed to the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, a key component of the ambitious Belt Road project in Asia. India is also a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, an important grouping that has the potential to be a key driver of Eurasian integration. But India’s status as the U.S.’ only “major defence partner” in the region and the signing of agreements like COMCASA (Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement) and LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement) have thrown a spanner in the works on plans for Eurasian integration with India’s participation. India has to decide whether it wants to opt for a genuine multipolar global system or side with the U.S. as it strives to hold on to its hegemonic role in international affairs. Washington views COMCASA and LEMOA as “foundational agreements” and the final stepping stone towards a military partnership with India similar to the one the U.S. has with NATO member countries.
The U.S. is dangling the prospects of selling high-tech defence equipment to India as it tries to wean the country away from its traditional defence partner, Russia. However, it is unlikely that the U.S. will go to the extent the Russians have in sharing high-tech defence know-how with India.
In recent years, Russia has loaned its nuclear submarines to India and in the process shared valuable technical expertise that will help enhance India’s deep-sea capabilities and strengthen its nuclear triad. The Russians have been helping India in other sectors too, especially civilian nuclear power.
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