India’s strategic and diplomatic embrace of the United States became tighter after the two-plus-two meeting of the Foreign and Defence Ministers of the two countries, the first of its kind, in the first week of September. U.S. Defence Secretary James Mattis and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo found it opportune to fly down for the talks after India made the necessary compromises. The Donald Trump administration had earlier sent some of its top emissaries to New Delhi to put pressure on the Indian government to implement the unilateral U.S. sanctions on Iran and to send out a warning against the purchase of sophisticated Russian weaponry, such as the S-400 surface-to-air missile systems which India had already contracted to buy. The two-plus-two meeting was initially scheduled to be held in May in Washington, but the U.S. chose to reschedule the date and change the venue.
It was only after India indicated that it was willing to sign the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) and signalled its willingness to substantially reduce its imports of Iranian oil and gas, that Washington confirmed the dates for the meeting. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, after his meeting with the Chinese President Xi Jinping in Wuhan, briefly gave the impression that there was a serious “reset” in India’s relations with China. Relations between the two countries had deteriorated after the precipitate decision of the Indian government to march troops into Doklam, an area of minor territorial dispute between China and Bhutan. After the Wuhan meeting, the two sides pledged to avoid Doklam-like incidents in the future and cooperate in the international arena. Modi, in a speech in Singapore soon after the Wuhan meeting, spoke about the need for India to retain its “strategic autonomy” in the conduct of foreign policy. He also said that India would refrain from joining any military alliance in the region.
"Foundational agreement"
All that seems to be water under the bridge now after the two-plus-two meeting. With the signing of COMCASA, which the U.S. views as a “foundational agreement” that would strengthen military ties between the two countries, India will be viewed as a frontline state in the strategic alliance led by the U.S. against China. Australia, Japan and South Korea have closer military ties with the U.S. than India. COMCASA is modelled after similar agreements the U.S. had signed with these countries and is being touted as “a force multiplier” for India vis a vis its stated rivals, Pakistan and China. A senior Trump administration official told the media that the U.S. had signed similar agreements with 30 other countries. India has already been designated as “a major defence partner” of the U.S.
The U.S. adheres to intrusive inspection processes in these countries to ensure that its sophisticated military equipment and secrets are not compromised. At the same time, such intrusive investigation could jeopardise the national security of recipient countries. The signing of the Logistics Exchange Memorandum Agreement (LEMOA) two years ago by the National Democratic Alliance government opened up the Indian military bases and ports to the U.S. military. COMCASA, according to many military experts, will give the U.S. access to secret Indian military communications. COMCASA will open the doors for the sale of more U.S. weaponry, along with advanced communications systems, to India. The U.S. weapons systems, such as the C-130 and C-17 aircraft, which are already with India, will be significantly upgraded with the installation of more sophisticated electronics.
The new agreement is meant to facilitate better interoperability between the armed forces of the two countries. “The landmark agreement deepens our military-to-military cooperation and our ability to share the most advanced defence technology, making us both stronger,” Mattis said in New Delhi. In the long run, it would force India to be more dependent on U.S. military equipment and expertise as the Russian weaponry becomes more and more incompatible with the U.S.’ state-of-the-art weaponry. The U.S. has made it obvious that one of its primary goals is to sell more weaponry to India. The U.S. already occupies the second spot in the lucrative Indian arms bazaar. India is the leading purchaser of weapons globally. Russia is providing around 60 per cent of India’s needs currently. But most security experts believe that the U.S.is poised to pull down Russia from its perch. Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman claimed after the two-plus-two talks that defence cooperation between the two countries “has emerged as the most significant dimension of our strategic partnership and a key driver of our overall bilateral relationship”.
Weaponry and energy products
Pompeo said that he expected India to buy more weaponry and “energy products” from the U.S. to cover the yawning trade deficit. Ahead of the talks, a senior U.S. official had told the media that Washington was engaged in “very detailed conversations” with India on the need to completely stop all oil imports from Iran. At present, India is Iran’s second biggest importer of oil after China. The Secretary of State said in New Delhi that the U.S. was not thinking of penalising “a great strategic partner” like India over the issue of Iran oil or S-400 missiles from Russia.
But subsequent statements from senior officials of the Trump administration have given no indication that India-specific sanctions waivers would be granted under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). Mattis was the Trump administration’s pointsman arguing for exemptions to be given to India. He has opposed many of Trump’s impulsive foreign policy initiatives, including his dumping of the internationally accepted Iran nuclear deal. Reports in the U.S. media say that his days in the Trump Cabinet are numbered. India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval was in Washington in the third week of September to hold talks with Trump administration officials on Iran and Russia. His U.S. counterpart is a known Iran and Russia baiter. India has already given an assurance to the Trump administration that it will drastically reduce the import of oil from Iran before the November deadline set by the U.S. to remove Iranian crude from the global market.
The Trump administration is also not happy with India’s involvement in developing the Iranian port of Chabahar. This port will give India direct access to the Central Asian markets and the energy reserves there.
It was also announced that India and the U.S. would have an annual trilateral military exercise, involving the navies, armies and air forces of the two countries. As things stand today, India conducts the largest number of military exercises with the U.S.. Besides, the Modi government has revived the trilateral “Malabar exercises” involving the U.S., India and Japan. There is also an on-going attempt to resuscitate the “Quad”, bringing in Australia into the military alliance that is so patently aimed at militarily encircling a rising China.
The U.S. game plan is to create a military grouping mimicking the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) in the Asia-Pacific region, with India as a key member. The joint statement issued after the meeting echoed the U.S. position on the South China Sea, talking on the need to uphold a “rules-based order” and guarantee the freedom of navigation.
"A major step forward"
After the New Delhi meeting, India and the U.S. agreed to the posting of liaison officers in each other’s bases. Indian naval officers will be sent to the U.S. Navy's Central Command Base in Bahrain. A permanent hotline will be established between the offices of Secretaries of Defence and State with their ministerial counterparts in India.
The Indian side confirmed at the meeting that it would be signing the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-Spatial Cooperation (BECA), the third and the last of the so-called “foundational agreements” with the U.S. It was no wonder, therefore, that the U.S. Foreign and Defence Secretaries were more than thrilled with the outcome of the talks. Pompeo said that the COMCASA agreement was “a major step forward” in bilateral relations. The U.S. officials said that the agreement would allow India to buy armed long-range Predator and Reaper drones that would help it monitor the movements of Chinese ships and submarines in the Indian Ocean.
External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj praised the Trump administration’s policy on South Asia and Afghanistan. She told the media that the U.S. and India were on the same page on the issue of cross-border terrorism. She said Trump’s demand that Pakistan stop the policy of supporting cross-border terrorism found “resonance” in India. Pompeo made a brief stopover in Islamabad before coming to New Delhi. He warned the new government in Pakistan that it would face tough action from Washington if it did not stop supporting the Afghan Taliban and terrorist outfits waging cross-border terrorism.
The joint statement issued after the two-plus-two talks welcomed India’s “enhanced role in Afghanistan’s development and stabilisation” while calling on Pakistan to “ensure that the territory under its control is not used to launch terrorist attacks in other countries”. The U.S. was less forthcoming on the issue of granting more H1B and H-4 visas to Indians or on tariffs on Indian aluminium and steel.
In short, the much-hyped meeting was a diplomatic gain for the embattled Trump administration. India has chosen to side with a waning superpower thousands of miles away while frittering away the goodwill in the region. Most of India’s neighbours prefer to focus on the economic well-being of their people. They prefer to be part of China’s Belt Road economic project rather than be a member of a hegemonic military alliance.
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