The Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League’s victory in Bangladesh’s January 7 election has sparked off an opposition-led campaign on social media calling for a boycott of Indian goods. Although most observers are sceptical about the efficacy of the anti-India campaign, it has managed to attract the attention of most Indian media outlets and foreign news agencies if only because it comes close on the heels of a similar “India Out” movement in Maldives.
Hasina’s fourth consecutive victory, making her the longest serving leader in the country, has led to a deep sense of unease among her detractors about their political future, and they blame India for her return to power. The US had exerted pressure on Hasina for democratic backsliding for several months before the election. The fact that it finally accepted Hasina as the elected leader has frustrated her opponents more. President Joe Biden joined other leaders in congratulating Hasina on her victory and expressed his desire to work with her on issues of mutual interest.
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Most of Hasina’s opponents believe that India, a close strategic partner of the US, used its influence to make Biden adopt a more agreeable position on Hasina. “There is a growing perception that Hasina has remained in power by rigging elections because of India’s meddling and support,” said Shama Obaid, an organising secretary of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the main opposition. However, the BNP has maintained ambiguity on the campaign, allowing some leaders and affiliates to publicly associate with the “people’s protest”, while not committing itself officially. “The BNP is yet to make an official statement on the campaign or endorse it,” said Mohammad Asaduzzaman, a practising lawyer and head of the party’s human rights wing.
Unsure about “boycott India”
The Bangladeshi Bengali daily Prothom Alo reported on March 27 that the BNP was going to hold a brainstorming meeting to decide the party’s approach to the “boycott India” campaign. The BNP sees the campaign as a social movement but has not yet made up its mind whether to officially associate with the campaign as that would further strain its relations with India. Recently, the BNP’s senior joint secretary general, Ruhul Kabir Rizvi, joined the campaign to boycott Indian products. So did Nurul Haque Nur, president of the Gono Odhikar Parishad, a political party aligned with the BNP.
In the run-up to the election, India differed from its Western allies, particularly the US, about Hasina and democracy in Bangladesh. India maintained that it respects Bangladesh’s democratic process and wants to see a “stable, peaceful, and prosperous nation”. The Biden administration, however, accepted the opposition’s charge that Hasina had been rigging successive elections to stay in power. It sanctioned Hasina and threatened visa restrictions on anyone found to be involved in manipulating the elections. US State Department officials actively engaged with Bangladesh’s political parties to hold a fair election. India argued that though it supported democracy in Bangladesh, it did not want to meddle in the election process as it was an “internal matter” of the neighbouring country. The BNP expected Hasina to submit to US pressure and install a caretaker government to hold the election. But when she refused to oblige and proceeded to conduct the election according to provisions of the country’s constitution, the BNP and other opposition parties decided to boycott the election. This gave Hasina an unchallenged fourth term.
Bangladesh Nationalist Party activists run from tear gas shells fired by police during a protest in Dhaka, in October 2023, demanding the transfer of power to a non-partisan caretaker government to oversee the 2024 general election. | Photo Credit: Mahmud Hossain Opu/AP/PTI
“The BNP realised that no outside power, irrespective of its size, can install it in power,” said Shahab Enam Khan, a Dhaka-based commentator. “It cannot claim to represent the people when it runs away from contesting the election.” The BNP claimed that most Bangladesh people rejected Hasina and blamed India for supporting and legitimising her. Amir Khosru Chowdhury, a member of the BNP’s standing committee, argued that the January election was a referendum against Hasina as most people stayed away from voting. “We have now reached an inflexion point. There is resentment against Hasina and also India for the support it extends to the Awami League government,” he said.
Highlights
- The Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League’s victory in Bangladesh’s January 7 election has sparked off an opposition-led campaign on social media calling for a boycott of Indian goods.
- The Bangladesh Nationalist Party sees the campaign as a social movement but has not yet made up its mind whether to officially associate with the movement as that would further strain its relations with India.
- The “India Out” campaign has failed to find wide acceptance among the people, contrary to the expectations of its proponents that the movement would snowball into something major as it did in Maldives.
Failure to find wide acceptance
However, the “India Out” campaign has failed to find wide acceptance among the people, contrary to the expectations of its proponents that the movement would snowball into something major as it did in Maldives. “We shouldn’t overstate the significance of this campaign,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC. “Since it’s led by the public, not the state, it’s unlikely to get far.” He pointed out that in Maldives, the campaign was more potent because it was state-sponsored and state-orchestrated. In Bangladesh, the campaign was bound to have limited success despite many Bangladeshis supporting it because the Hasina government had a strong interest in curbing it owing to its close ties with India. Bangladesh relies heavily on India for essential items like food, fuel, fertilizer, and raw materials for its industries. Implementing an “India Out” policy would also impact the corporate sector, mainly software and services, as a substantial number of skilled workers and experts from India are employed in Bangladesh. In 2022, India’s exports to Bangladesh amounted to more than $16 billion, making it Bangladesh’s second largest trade partner. If Indian products are withdrawn, it will harm Bangladesh as the essential items that come from India are far cheaper than what it would cost Dhaka to import from elsewhere.
“I don’t think the campaign has been thought through,” said Imtiaz Ahmed, who teaches political science at Dhaka University. “It is mainly being driven by the Bangladeshi diaspora who are either BNP members or closely associated with the party.” According to him, anyone with a little knowledge of economics will know that implementing such a policy will increase the misery of the common people. Ahmed pointed out that, privately, the BNP realised that boycotting the election was a mistake. However, its public position was that it could not take the blame for the boycott, neither could it call out the US for its volte-face of reaching out to Hasina. And, with China maintaining a hands-off policy during the election, India became the favourite fall guy.
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Although political observers speculate about the role, if any, that India played in the election, most accept that between the two rivals, India would surely opt for Hasina. Since Narendra Modi became Prime Minister in 2014, he has managed to strike a strong bond with Hasina, and in the last 10 years the two countries have cooperated in a wide range of areas. Under a BNP government, India had experienced not only non-cooperation on developmental projects but also a rejection of past agreements. The BNP government’s hostile approach was evident when anti-Indian forces freely operated from Bangladeshi soil to carry out activities detrimental to Indian interests. Even when the BNP was out of power, it remained hostile to India, as demonstrated by BNP leader Khaleda Zia not meeting the visiting Indian President Pranab Mukherjee in 2013.
Chief of the Air Staff of India Air Chief Marshal V.R. Chaudhari with Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, in Dhaka on February 28. | Photo Credit: ANI
Some observers said that the BNP’s Ruhul Kabir Rizvi joining the anti-India campaign was an indication that it had the approval of the party’s acting chairman in self-imposed exile in London, Tarique Rahman, as Rizvi is considered close to him. But others said the BNP might be having a rethink about its approach to India. “The BNP is divided on the India question,” said the political commentator Shahab Anam Khan. He pointed out that one section still believed in taking a hard-line stance against India, while others were keen to build bridges with India’s leadership. “There is a grudging realisation that India is too big a player to ignore,” said Khan. Therein perhaps lies the reason for the BNP’s ambiguity about the current campaign. “We shouldn’t underplay the strong anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh—it’s very real and quite extensive,” said Kugelman. But he did not think that it would mushroom into a mass movement, especially since Dhaka had shown a willingness to crack down on public sentiment that worked against its interests.
There are issues that can force Bangladesh to take a united stand, cutting across party lines, such as the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA), which gives Indian citizenship to all religious minorities who had come to India from neighbouring countries where Islam is the state religion. Hasina has so far managed to allay fears in Bangladesh by arguing that it is India’s internal matter. However, once implemented, the fallout, especially if it leads to expulsion of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, can pose a serious challenge for Hasina. “There is no debate on the CAA now but its fallout could be controversial and difficult to manage,” said Imtiaz Ahmed. Khan predicted the rise of Islamist fundamentalist forces if the CAA started impacting Muslims in India. Predictably, such a scenario will be challenging not only for Bangladesh but also for India.
Pranay Sharma is a commentator on political and foreign affairs-related developments. He has worked in senior editorial positions at leading media organisations.
