A new dawn in Turkish politics as Erdogan’s dominance unravels

With Erdogan’s party reassessing its position in light of its defeat in local elections, political opposition stands on the threshold of a new era.

Supporters of Istanbul Mayor and Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidate Ekrem Imamoğlu celebrate outside City Hall in Istanbul, on March 31. | Photo Credit: Khalil Hamra/AP

In the heart of Ankara, under the warmth of a spring sun, a seismic shift was taking place on March 31. Murat Oktay, a retired government official and a steadfast supporter of Türkiye’s Justice and Development Party (AK Party) led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was at a polling booth waiting to cast his vote. Eighteen times since 2001, he had cast his vote for Erdogan’s party but on this day, he was driven by a desire to address the economic difficulties plaguing his country by turning his back on the very political force he had helped nurture. And his decision would echo across the nation.

Across Türkiye, millions of voters signalled a potential end to Erdogan’s long-standing grip on power as the AK Party faced a startling defeat in the local elections against the secular opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), which took control of a significant number of urban and rural strongholds. The CHP’s victory in 14 metropolitan cities, 21 provinces, and 337 district councils marked a pivotal moment in Turkish politics, illustrating a clear departure from the past.

The CHP secured 37.76 per cent of votes and the AK Party 35.48 per cent. In the presidential election last year, the CHP got less than 25 per cent vote share contesting as part of an alliance. A 12 per cent jump in vote share in a year despite multiple dissensions and breaking of alliances is a remarkable achievement for the party that was launched by modern Türkiye’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, and had gone into oblivion over the past four decades.

The results of the 2024 Türkiye local administration elections, which took place on March 31, 2024. | Photo Credit: Supreme Election Council of Türkiye

Barometer of national sentiment

Across much of the world, local elections do not generate much interest, but in Türkiye, they are a vital barometer of national sentiment, as there are no State governments like in India. In terms of political significance, the Mayor of Istanbul can be compared to, say, the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh.

Further, the local administration is the third pillar of the Turkish governance structure after the presidency and parliament. They control local taxes and are responsible for services such as transport, land use, waste collection, water, gas and parks, roads, and other recreational facilities. Local councillors or Muhtars enjoy a considerable influence in their localities.

Marking a milestone in the megapolis of Istanbul, Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu, who was re-elected, has emerged as a strong challenger to Erdogan as well. His triumph is not merely local but also symbolic, given Istanbul’s economic heft and demographic prominence. His political capital could prove foundational for his speculated national ambitions.

Analysts say a victory in Istanbul, widely considered a microcosm of Türkiye, could have given Erdogan the political momentum and economic resources to move ahead with his goal to amend the constitution to prolong his time in office. There was also speculation that his party was planning to remove the word “secular” from the constitution.

Conceding defeat of his party, Erdogan stated that the nation exhibited its will in the ballots, without encountering any restraints and that it was a major gain for Turkish democracy. “The victor of this election is democracy, the nation’s will, regardless of political views of the electorate,” he said.

Erdogan admitted that his party could not achieve the desired result, especially nine months after the general and legislative elections, in which the AK Party emerged the winner. “We worked intensely for the election. AK Party staff worked day and night, in harmony, with self-sacrifice,” said Erdogan, who himself toured 52 cities on the campaign trail over the past two months.

Istanbul’s mayor and Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidate Ekrem Imamoğlu makes a speech in front of supporters celebrating outside the main municipality building, following local administration elections held across Türkiye, in Istanbul on March 31. | Photo Credit: Yasin Akgul/AFP

The loss of key cities and regions, once considered bastions of AK Party support, underscored a broader disenchantment among the electorate, particularly concerning economic policies and concentration of power. The economic strife, characterised by persistent inflation and financial instability, emerged as a central theme in the electoral discourse.

“It had a big impact. There are some 15 million pensioners in the country. They all teamed up with first-time and young voters and shifted loyalties to teach Erdogan a lesson,” Mehmet Ozturk, a political commentator, told Frontline. The rising cost of living was the theme for young voters.

The CHP’s resurgence beyond its traditional coastal strongholds into the heartland of Anatolia, signifies a profound realignment in Turkish politics. This expansion reflects the broader appeal of the CHP’s message resonating with voters across diverse regions and demographics. Therefore, the party’s success is not just a victory in numbers but a testament to the changing political and social dynamics within Türkiye.

Highlights

• In Türkiye, voters signal an end to Erdogan’s potential control as AK Party faces a local defeat by secular opposition, CHP, gaining urban-rural strongholds. In Istanbul, Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu’s re-election marks a milestone; he emerges as Erdogan’s challenger.
• Loss of key cities underscores voter disenchantment in AK party, highlighting concerns over economic policies and power concentration; new force, Yeniden Refah Partisi, emerges.

New political force

This election also witnessed the emergence of a new political force, the Yeniden Refah Partisi (New Welfare Party), which managed to carve out a niche in the political landscape. The Islamist party led by Ali Fatih Erbakan, son of Erdogan’s mentor and former Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan, emerged as the third largest political force, securing 6.19 per cent of the votes and taking control of one metro city and one province. In some cities, the party got a 20 to 30 per cent vote share.

In the 2023 presidential election, this party had sided with Erdogan but soon broke away. The party’s performance indicates the emergence of a new Islamist party, a development that could have lasting implications for Türkiye’s political spectrum. The conventional Islamist Saadat Party fared poorly in the elections along with two other ultra-nationalist parties, the MHP and the Good Party.

Leader of the New Welfare Party Ali Fatih Erbakan speaks during a rally in Istanbul ahead of the local elections in Türkiye. His party’s Istanbul mayoral candidate Mehmet Altinoz is also seen. | Photo Credit: Dilara Senkaya/Reuters

Analysts say the election outcome shows that it is more than a mere partisan victory; it serves as an implicit referendum on the administration’s policies. It is also a clarion call for reform, an embodiment of the public’s aspiration for accountability, transparency, and respect for democratic norms.

The geopolitical implications of these elections are also significant. Erdogan’s foreign policy, particularly his stance on Israel and the conflict in Gaza came under scrutiny, reflecting the electorate’s expectation for a more assertive Turkish position on the international stage. Many voters were expressing resentment at Erdogan not doing enough to act against Israel. Although Erdogan did organise public meetings and spoke against Israeli bombardment, many on the streets were demanding an end to diplomatic relations and commercial ties with Israel.

Glimpse of the future?

As Türkiye navigates this new political terrain, the election results offer a glimpse into the future direction of the country. The CHP’s gains and the electoral shift signal a demand for a fresh approach to governance, economic policy, and Türkiye’s role on the world stage. The unfolding political narrative in Türkiye is not just about a change in leadership; it also represents a profound transformation in the country’s political and social fabric.

The repercussions of this are far-reaching, potentially altering Türkiye’s strategic choices and domestic priorities. As Erdogan’s party reassesses its position and strategies, the political opposition, led by the CHP and other emerging forces, stands at the threshold of a new era in Turkish politics. This moment is not merely about electoral victory; it is also a reflection of a nation’s desire for renewal, accountability, and a more inclusive and democratic governance model.

In this landscape of change, the future of Turkish politics is poised on the brink of a new dawn. The electorate’s message is clear: it is the time for transformation, for a governance that truly reflects the will and aspirations of its people, marking the beginning of a new chapter in its storied political history.

Iftikhar Gilani is an Indian journalist based in Ankara.