PAKISTAN President Pervez Musharraf's call for the "demilitarisation" of Kashmir at an Iftar function in the last week of October evoked a mixed response from New Delhi. Musharraf suggested that India and Pakistan mutually agree to demilitarise some regions of both Pakistan- and Indian-controlled Kashmir and maintain a joint control over the disputed territory. The General added that it could be followed up with the holding of a United Nations-supervised election that would allow the Kashmiri people to choose their future.
Senior Pakistani diplomats in New Delhi were surprised by the strong reaction the suggestion elicited in India's official circles and media. They say, in defence of Musharraf, that the President was only thinking aloud about one of the possible scenarios on Kashmir that could be discussed when the two sides meet for substantive talks. They point out that Congress leader Salman Khurshid, while in Pakistan recently, had talked about "the Irish model" as a basis for the solution of the Kashmir problem. Pakistani officials insist that Musharraf was not trying to use the media to surprise New Delhi with a new "out-of-the-box" proposal on Kashmir.
All the same, Musharraf's new suggestions on breaking the military and political logjam in Kashmir have been generally welcomed by the international community. But Indian officials feel that Musharraf is trying to score points with the international community. They stress that there is no scope for any further division of the subcontinent. The External Affairs Ministry has said that issues relating to Kashmir should only be part of the dialogue process and should not be debated through the media. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) and other Left parties in India are of the view that it would have been more prudent if the Pakistani side had taken up the issue in the course of the upcoming high-level bilateral talks.
Diplomatic observers in India have not failed to notice, in Musharraf's new initiative, a departure from Pakistan's long-standing position on Kashmir. For the first time, a Pakistani head of state has indicated that the Line of Control (LoC) could provide the rough contours for an internationally recognised border between the two countries. He has also acknowledged that "Azad Kashmir" and the Northern Areas, which are under Pakistani control, are "disputed territories".
Musharraf's new proposal has put the question of "plebiscite" on the backburner and has instead identified seven regions of undivided Jammu and Kashmir. They are the Buddhist-dominated Leh, the Shia-dominated Kargil, the Hindu-dominated Jammu, Kathua and parts of Udhampur, the Muslim-dominated Rajouri, Poonch and Doda districts, Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir, Gilgit and Baltistan. As per the idea floated by Musharraf, the people in the seven regions can separately decide their future.
New Delhi has let it be known that for the time being it would wish to focus on issues other than the emotive Kashmir problem. Pakistan's new Prime Minister, Shaukat Aziz, will be visiting New Delhi on November 3. New Delhi wants to take up with him issues relating to music and video "piracy". According to Indian officials, New Delhi would propose the setting up of a Joint Working Group (JWG) to combat this problem. The two sides are to meet in the second week of November to discuss the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus route proposal.
There seems to be some forward movement on the gas pipeline issue. The Indian and Pakistani Petroleum Ministers are to meet soon to discuss the Iranian proposal for a gas pipeline to India passing through Pakistan. There are some indications that Islamabad is thinking of delinking this issue from the "core" issue of Kashmir. Teheran has been trying to push the gas pipeline project since the mid-1990s. At that time, there was little interest in the project in India and Pakistan. As Pakistani diplomats point out, a lot of international funding is needed for the project. The United States, especially in the light of recent developments, would be loath to see Iranian oil and gas find a lucrative market in India.
Senior U.S State Department officials, including Secretary of State Colin Powell, have been issuing statements supporting the India-Pakistan dialogue process. They have been appreciative of Musharraf's latest initiative. Powell recently claimed credit for having revived the dialogue process between the two countries last year. In an October 18 interview with a U.S. daily, Powell said that it was a phone call from him to the former Indian Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, that melted the ice between Islamabad and New Delhi. Former External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh, known for his pro-Washington predilections, was quick to deny Washington's hand in the behind-the-scenes diplomacy. But a U.S. State Department spokesman insisted that it was Powell's intervention that led to the present diplomatic thaw between the two countries.
The Bush administration sent Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca to the subcontinent in the last week of October. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage will visit India and Pakistan in November after the U.S. presidential elections. High on the American agenda is keeping the dialogue process between India and Pakistan on track.
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