The Indian Air Force requires some 200 more aircraft urgently to update its combat squadrons, but the progress towards a purchase deal, worth $9 billion, is made at a slow pace.
in BangaloreSPEAKING at Aero India 2005, Chief of the Air Staff Air Chief Marshal S.P. Tyagi said that he wished the 126 combat aircraft that India was planning to buy joined the Indian Air Force (IAF) "today". Apparently, he was referring to the inadequate number of combat squadrons, which slipped to 35 from the authorised strength of 39 and a half. And with a number of Russian-made MiGs (especially MiG-21s and MiG-23s) being retired from service after having completed their technical life, the squadron strength is expected to slip to 30 in the next two to three years. This will necessitate the addition of at least 10 combat squadrons to the IAF, which means at least 180 aircraft, and an additional 20 for war wastage and as maintenance reserves.
But with the new inductions being only the Russian-made Su-30s and a few British-made Jaguars, and with India's own Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas (which was planned as a replacement for the MiG 21s) not likely to see squadron service before 2010, it is obvious that the IAF's combat fleet phase-out rate far exceeds the rate of induction. So, unless the Ministry of Defence (MoD), the Aeronautical Development Authority (ADA, which designed the LCA) and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL, which is license-producing the Su-30MKI) work with a sense of urgency, India could end up woefully short in its force levels.
Some military experts say that given the IAF's capabilities of air power and increasingly dominant role - it is no longer seen as a tactical support arm to the Army, but as a strategic partner - by 2020 it would need 50 to 55 squadrons made up of aircraft that have multi-role, strike, air defence, reconnaissance and electronic warfare tasks. But people such as former Air Chief Marshal S. Krishnaswamy think otherwise. He says that expecting 55, or even 45 squadrons, to join the force is a pipedream. It would be creditable if the IAF could fill up the squadrons that are being number-plated and retain a 39 and a half combat squadron strength. Krishnaswamy said: "Maintaining the authorised strength itself could take 15 to 18 years. The nation has to look at the costs."
So the key questions are, aircraft of what size, range and capability, and how many? Moreover, can India afford - both strategically and financially - to have highly specialised aircraft, which are purely of a strike, interception or air defence capability? For example, the Jaguars, purchased in 1978 to meet the IAF's requirement for a deep penetration strike aircraft, are only capable of a strike role and are unlikely to survive an attack by, say, F-16s. Hence they have to be escorted by an air-superiority fighter such as the MiG-29. Again, the MiG-29s with the IAF are slotted for an air defence role and do not carry any punch against ground targets. Krishnaswamy said: "The Jaguars do have a role but their concept is based on the British philosophy of the 1960s of flying low below radar - days when aircraft aerodynamic design capabilities were not as good as they are today. Today we have multi-role aircraft such as the Mirage 2000 or the F-16. They can carry almost as much weapon loads as the Jaguar and are still capable of looking after themselves."
Another view holds that the IAF's combat inventory should be narrowed down to consist of three types of aircraft: air dominance, multi-role combat and tactical combat. While the 140 Su-30MKIs to be built by HAL in a phased manner over the next 12 to 13 years will help fulfil the IAF's air dominance and long range strike capability, the void in multi-role and combat-role capabilities needs to be filled urgently. (The Su-30MKIs will join the already delivered Su-30s to form around 10 squadrons.) The IAF is looking for smaller aircraft that can be used in close air support or battlefield interdiction situations. The IAF needs 126 lightweight multi-role tactical "swing role" fighters that can switch roles during the course of a mission (most modern aircraft have a primary and a secondary role). These are meant to serve as an interim measure replacing some of the IAF's ageing, in-service MiG-21s (the IAF has operated around 16 MiG-21 squadrons, some of which have already been disbanded) and stand-in/supplement for the long-delayed LCA. In addition, the 125 MiG-21Bis aircraft will augment the combat fleet. Essentially used for air defence, they are now being upgraded (so far 100 have been refitted) to become tactical fighters and rechristened MiG-21 Bisons.
Although the proposal to buy 126 combat aircraft (the IAF had asked for 150) was cleared by the government in 2002, it took the MoD three years to send requests for information (RFI) to Russia's RSK MiG Corporation (for the MiG-29M/M2), Sweden's SAAB (for the JAS-39C Gripen) and France's Dassault (for the Mirage 2000-5 Mk2). An RFI was later sent to the United States' Lockheed Martin, producers of the F-16 Fighting Falcon.
ALTHOUGH the $9 billion deal may take some time to materialise - MoD sources say that the tender is scheduled for April 2005 and the technical evaluation of the machines will take place in late 2005 - all four contenders were present at Air Force Station Yelahanka during Aero India 2005, each highlighting the attributes of its aircraft and promising the transfer of technology and work share should India decide on its fighter. The deal would include a number of aircraft being built overseas and then flown to India, with the rest being manufactured by HAL. The contract would also include long-term maintenance, spares and technological support.
In March 2002, India had looked to France to meet its need for frontline fighter aircraft. The plan was to augment the two Mirage 2000 squadrons with the more advanced Mirage 2000-5 Mk2. The Mk2 incorporates new technologies and functions such as computing capabilities and weapon systems from Dassault's Rafale aircraft programme. Yves Robins, vice-president, international relations (defence), Dassault, said: "The Mirage 2000-5 Mk2 is ideally suited for interception and air superiority missions. It is suited for high-altitude interception at high supersonic speeds (Mach 2.2 at 55,000 ft) thanks to its aerodynamic qualities and its engine [Snecma M53-P2 which is undergoing an upgrade]."
The IAF, which first acquired the fourth-generation Mirages in 1986, has long sought the expansion of its 40-odd-strong - (two squadrons) Mirage 2000H/TH inventory. But so far it has only got a "top up" reorder of 10, which has only helped in taking care of the present strike off/maintenance wastages. Ironically, the IAF's Mirages, which have an exceptional flight safety record, suffered four mishaps in 2004. While two were attributed to human error, one occurred when the aircraft's main wheel came off as the pilot pulled in the undercarriage after takeoff. The fourth one occurred when an engine blade broke off in a trainer causing a restriction of power.
Dassault hopes that the IAF's familiarity with the Mirage will win it the contract. But the MiG Corporation too is thinking on the same lines. Alexey Fedorov, the corporation's director-general, is not worried that the aircraft is still only in the prototype stage. He said: "The MiG-29 M2 has commonalities with the [much heavier, 38-tonne] Su-30MKI. It is more advanced than the Mirage 2000. The avionics and weapons systems will be of Russian, French and Indian origin. With the F-16 too in the fray it will be a stiff competition." Currently, MiG fighters are not designed to be multi-role aircraft. But Fedorov says that the MiG-29M/M2 will make up for this. While the MiG-29M is a single-seater variant, the M2 is the twin-seats trainer version.
Although many aviation experts expressed surprise at the Indian government's decision to ask Lockheed Martin for an RFI, the company takes a different view. Loren E. Timm, deputy, F-16 customer requirements, Lockheed Martin, said: "You can't buy a more cost effective aircraft than the F-16 and we support the programme from cradle to grave. Twenty-four countries are operating them. It has a 72-to-nothing record in air kills and is a true multi-role military aircraft that is capable of day/night, all-weather, air-to-ground, air-to-air, air-to-sea, closed air support and reconnaissance capabilities. If the U.S. State Department allows us to compete in the Indian bid, we will beat the Mirage 2000. We have never lost a competitive bid to Mirage."
The surprise member of the quartet is the JAS-39C Gripen, which is the only truly multi-role aircraft among the four contenders. According to Anders Annerfalk, communications manager of Gripen International, the aircraft is a more modern machine when compared to the others. While it was developed in the late 1980s, all the others date back to the 1970s. The Gripen is powered by the Volvo Aero Corporation RM12 modular power plant, which is based on the General Electric F-404-400 engine.
The four aircraft are currently being evaluated for their operational capabilities in areas such as radars, computers, navigational attack systems, the range of the missiles that could be carried, and so on. Other considerations - the kind of technical support and technology transfer that would be given, whether there would be a buy-back arrangement, what advantage the Indian manufacturer (HAL) and the nation as a whole could derive from the deal, whether the manufacturer would be dependable (for technology as well as spares), and whether political compulsions would affect the deal - would also be factored in before a final decision is made. Moreover, the IAF already operates a variety of combat aircraft of both Western (mainly French and British) and Eastern (Russian) origin, each with its own distinct design and operating philosophy. The question is whether inducting a Gripen or an F-16 would further exasperate the situation, leading to increased infrastructural expenses and wastage of time while trying to make them compatible with the IAF's present training methodology, fleet inventory and maintenance.
Spokespersons of all the companies said that they had replied to the RFI and it was now up to the Indian government to call for request for proposals (RFP). The question is how long the MoD will take before it sets the ball rolling again. Aircraft manufacturers are aware that India took more than two decades before it finally settled for the Hawk as the IAF's Advanced Jet Trainer. Krishnaswamy said: "Yes, we have procurement procedures, but there is no point in taking 15 years to buy/order aircraft which have a 10-year production cycle. In my estimate, only if we quickly procure the 126 aircraft and the LCAs roll off the production line can we hope to maintain our authorised squadron strength." Even assuming a finalisation of the order for multi-role aircraft in the next two to three years, the new fighters are not likely to be part of the IAF's inventory before 2010.
