F-16 worries

India protests against the U.S. decision to the sell F-16 aircraft and other sophisticated weaponry to Pakistan.

ALTHOUGH a formal decision is yet to be taken, it seems that the long-delayed sale of United States-made F-16 fighter aircraft to Pakistan will happen in the near future. Apart from the F-16s, the U.S. would sell naval reconnaissance P-3C aircraft and 2,000 anti-tank TOW 2-A missiles to Pakistan. U.S. diplomats in New Delhi have confirmed that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) will soon be inducting the planes into its fleet. In fact, the F-16s were to join the PAF in the early-1990s and Islamabad had made a down payment for 28 of them in the late 1980s. However, the U.S.-imposed sanctions on Pakistan because of its nuclear programme prevented the sale. The nuclear tests by Pakistan in 1998 further stiffened the U.S. resolve to keep the military sales pending.

However, the events of September 11, 2001, changed dramatically the equation between Islamabad and Washington. The traditionally close relations were reinforced as Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf unconditionally became an ally of George W. Bush in his so-called war against terrorism. The U.S. military and intelligence agencies are operating freely from Pakistani territory. Bush and Musharraf have struck a close personal friendship, which was on display when the Pakistan President was in Washington in early December. Evidently, the startling evidence of nuclear and missile proliferation from Pakistan, which surfaced in early 2004 and involved top establishment figures, has not affected Washington's policies towards Islamabad.

Islamabad told Washington that New Delhi's acquisition of the Phalcon AWACS (Air-borne Warning and Control Systems) and the possible purchase of Arrow missile systems from Israel gave India tremendous additional military muscle. Both the Phalcon radar and Arrow systems, though produced in Israel, make use of U.S. technology.

Interestingly, after Washington's decision to give the green signal for the sale of F-16s to Islamabad, New Delhi was offered the option to buy the U.S.-made Patriot anti-missile system. India is among a handful of countries that supports the Bush administration's National Missile Defence (NMD) programme.

Washington seems eager to sell all kinds of weaponry to the two South Asian neighbours, who between them are among the biggest spenders on defence in the world. So far Patriot missiles have been found to be highly unreliable in intercepting incoming missiles, but they could prove to be highly effective against F-16s. The policies of the Bush administration could provoke a new and more dangerous arms race.

THE Indian government reacted strongly to the Bush administration's decision. Senior Indian officials warned the U.S. that if it went ahead with the deal, it would do serious harm to the ties between the two countries. The Congress-led government in New Delhi is trying to build on the strong ties that the previous government had with Washington. "India and the U.S., being the world's biggest democracies, are natural allies," said a senior Indian official. It is believed that the timing of the F-16 sale would harm the ongoing dialogue between New Delhi and Islamabad. The pressure on Islamabad to deliver on its promises to stop "cross border terrorism", for instance, is bound to ease. With the F-16s in its kitty, Islamabad may now be loath to give more concessions on issues relating to Kashmir, India believes.

Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee said in the second week of December that the "argument put forward by the United States that the weapons [for Pakistan] are being given to contain terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda and the Taliban does not stand". Pranab Mukherjee said that he, along with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and External Affairs Minister K. Natwar Singh, had tried to convince U.S. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld that the sale of the sophisticated weaponry to Pakistan at this juncture was untimely. Rumsfeld was in New Delhi in the second week of December.

Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran, during a recent visit to Washington, raised "concerns" about the proposed arms sale in his meeting with U.S. National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz. Although the Foreign Secretary said for the record that the Indian government was "not in a position to pass judgment", Indian officials claimed privately that they had told their U.S. interlocutors that New Delhi would be forced to take all necessary actions to counteract the threat posed to Indian security by the induction of the F-16s into the PAF. "We will have to do whatever is necessary for our defence preparedness and the United States will have to pay a price. American goodwill in India will be diminished," said a senior official.

However, several defence experts in India think that New Delhi is going overboard in its reactions to the proposed sale. They point out that the firepower of the Indian Air Force (IAF), especially after the induction of the state-of-the-art Russian-made Su-30s, is far superior to that of its Pakistani counterpart. The IAF is also much bigger in size. The addition of the F-16s to the PAF, it is felt, will make only a marginal difference to the existing military balance of power between the two countries.

Meanwhile, top officials in New Delhi and Islamabad are claiming that South Asia is no longer a "nuclear flashpoint". Manmohan Singh made this point in the first week of December, saying that the India-Pakistan peace process had helped improve the peace environment in the region. His views were seconded by top Pakistani officials who said that the talks between the two countries on important issues relating to nuclear confidence building measures (CBMs) had progressed. But the governments have not arrived at any formal agreement on nuclear and missile tests. Facts on the ground prove that a missile race is under way between the two countries. The introduction of F-16s and Patriot missiles into the picture will not make South Asia less of a nuclear "flashpoint".