THE political stance of the two major parties of Uttar Pradeshthe Samajwadi Party (S.P.) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)towards the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA ) at the Centre in recent times has been marked by spells of sabre-rattling followed by conciliatory moves and reaffirmation of support. Conventional political wisdom tends to relate this to a singular factor: the disproportionate assets cases (DPA) against Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati, the chiefs of the two parties, filed by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI). While the importance of these cases cannot be ruled out, the indeterminate posture of the leaderships of the parties is dictated by other, larger, political concerns too. These concerns essentially relate to the prospects of the parties in the next Lok Sabha elections.
Sources within the S.P. point out that large sections of the leadership as well as the rank and file want the party to fight the elections on a plank opposing the Congress and the governance record of UPA II. The party is also clear that it has to force early Lok Sabha elections in order to retain and advance the gains made in the Assembly elections held six months ago. To do this, the Manmohan Singh government would have to be brought down by withdrawing the S.Ps support. However, the party leadership wants to go about this cautiously . The S.P. does not want to find itself in the situation that the Left parties were in in 2008. They withdrew support but could not take political advantage of it as the UPA survived. If we withdraw support, the government should fall. We are not sure that it will happen now. Hence, the to be or not to be approach, said a senior S.P. leader to Frontline.
For the BSP, whose core Dalit vote bank is not swayed by immediate political or economic considerations, electoral gains in the next round form the basis of all political calculations. The party had recently conducted a survey to estimate the number of seats it would get from the State in the next Lok Sabha elections. The projections apparently were as follows: S.P. 33, BSP 30, BJP 11 and Congress 6. The survey results had also apparently indicated that an alliance with the Congress would benefit both the parties. However, the BSP leadership does not want to commit itself on an alliance immediately because it thinks that the anti-incumbency factor against the Akhilesh Yadav-led S.P. government in the State will grow in the days to come, leading to greater gains for the BSP on its own.
It is the play of these diverse political concerns that drives the blow hot, blow cold approach of the two parties, clearly, to the advantage of the Congress and its UPA government.
Venkitesh RamakrishnanCOMMents
COMMents
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