For another great leap forward

China is all set to explore its own way into deep space with a manned mission.

IF unconfirmed news reports are any indication, this month China should become the third nation, after the Soviet Union/Russia and the United States to send man into space, 42 years after Yuri Gagarin orbited the earth. The maiden Chinese manned space flight could take place as early as October 10, as some reports suggest, and from the nation's political perspective, the timing would be just appropriate as it would follow the week-long countrywide celebration of the communist revolution. In any case, even according to official Chinese statements, the manned mission is a certainty before the end of the year.

The mission is a significant part of a new definitive phase, with a long-term vision, that China's space programme is poised to enter in the new millennium. Manned flight is likely to form the cornerstone of a coherent strategic plan for space technology development in the 21st century that has been laid out, the prime mover of which is stated to be none less than President Jiang Zemin himself. "Achievements in space science and technology would greatly spur economic development, scientific advancement and the modernisation of national defence," Zemin has said.

The political and the scientific vision is set on goals that go far beyond the 300-km plus near-earth orbit of the proposed mission. The manned mission is seen as the first step towards a comprehensive programme of deep space exploration that includes China's own space station, a permanent space infrastructure, a lunar probe and landing and planetary exploration missions beginning with Mars. Not in the least are the obvious military and territorial advantages lost to the makers of China's grand space policy for the future.

It is a sign of technological maturity and the growing confidence in its achievements and capability that for the first time since China's space programme got under way in 1956 a white paper on "China's Space Activities" was released on November 22, 2000. Indeed, there is visible increase in transparency to the Chinese space programme and more information is perhaps now available through official channels than ever before. It is also significant that the document was released on the anniversary of the successful first launch of the man-rated spacecraft Shen Zhou (which roughly translates as `heavenly vessel', a name coined by Zemin). The success of the first flights of SZ is already being regarded as the country's leap into the exclusive club of the big two. The white paper outlines a seven-point strategy for the short-term (next decade) and a four-point strategy for the long term (next two decades).

The Chinese space programme began in the 1950s. At the urging of Chairman Mao Zedong in 1958 that China too should produce man-made satellites, China launched its first satellite Dong Feng Hong-1, using the Long March (LM)/Chang Zheng (CZ)-1 launcher, an off-shoot of the missile programme, in April 1970. Since then, China has flown over 50 satellites of 15 different types that include communication satellites, recoverable remote sensing satellites, earth resource satellites, meteorological satellites, navigation satellites and research-cum-test satellites. It has developed 14 types of LM/CZ series of launchers. The maximum payload capacity that a Chinese launcher has today is 9.2 tonne into the Low Earth Orbit (LEO), 5.1 tonne into the Geostationary Transfer Orbit (GTO) and 6.1 tonne into sun-synchronous orbit (SSO). In the use of cryogenic engines, China was ahead of even the Soviet Union. In 1985, China entered the commercial launch market and offered launch services at highly competitive prices as compared to the American and European launchers, an enterprise which it continues to eye as a major revenue earner for the space programme.

China has greatly increased its investment in space industry in the Tenth Five Year Plan period (which began in 2001) during which an accelerated aerospace development is envisaged. The estimated expenditure on aerospace R&D in the 10th Plan is over 5 billion yuan (about $0.6 bn) as compared to 1.7 bn yuan in the Ninth Plan. It plans to launch 30 satellites during the period. The government is already stated to have approved the funding for the development of eight new commercial satellites which include the first ocean satellite HY-1, two second generation polar orbiting meteorological satellites FY-3s, two earth space exploration satellites ZY-2s and an environmental monitoring and disaster forecast satellite system comprising three small SJ-5 satellites.

Following the release of the white paper, Luan Enjie, the chief administrator of the China National Space Administration (CNSA), which is responsible for policy enunciation and management of the space programme, wrote in CNSA's official journal: "Looking forward to the 21st century, China will make great efforts to conduct space exploration and innovative technology demonstration simultaneously, give priority to exploration in LEO, carry out deep space exploration centred on the exploration of the moon and positively participate in the international Mars exploration."

While most commentators on the Chinese space programme do not see beyond national prestige as the main reason for the manned mission, Chinese officials themselves view space technology development as a key to national development. The primary aim of China's space activities, says the white paper, is "to meet the growing demands of economic reconstruction, national security, science and technology development and social progress, protect China's national interests and build up comprehensive national strength."

Indeed, China's Committee for National Defence has identified space science, technology and industry as key elements in national defence. In fact, the new Cabinet unveiled early this year, had the former General Commander in charge of China's manned space flight programme, Cao Gangchuan, as the new Defence Minister. The close links with the military programme have been the key feature of China's space programme. Its origins can be traced to the missile development programme based on the Soviet R-2 missile in the 1950s. "We should carry forward the spirit displayed in developing China's first nuclear bombs, missiles and satellites, establish new system of combining military technology and civilian production," Enjie has said.

"The Chinese space programme is as a whole run by the military and the launches take place from PLA bases," points out Phillip Clark of the United Kingdom-based Molniya Space Consultancy, a long-time watcher of China's space programme. "Also, in a country like China, anything linked to the military will get more political support than something with no military application. The overall manned mission is being run by the Chinese military, and I have always been certain that it has been "sold" to the Chinese politicians because of perceived military applications," Clark adds. But there is also a growing realisation that launchers based on missiles are not sufficient anymore for manned missions and beyond.

Reports have suggested that one of the objectives of China's plan for manned flights and a space station is to further space-based military strategies. In fact, Clark believes that instead of having a crew on-board a reconnaissance platform, it would be much better to have a station that operates automatically and which can be visited by crews with fresh equipment and return films and experiments back to earth. However, the exact military applications that the Chinese envisage are at best speculative at this stage.

Another refrain in media reports and commentaries is that China's achievements are largely based on technology borrowed from Russia or on know-how illegally acquired from the U.S. (a la the Cox Report). Given the visual similarity of the spacecraft SZ with the Russian Soyuz, this view is being aired again even as the Chinese have said that they have built everything for the spacecraft. Clark says: "Such a claim is an insult to Chinese engineers and designers."

Although the Chinese have taken Soyuz as the basis of their design, all the dimensions of SZ - its cylindrical diameter of 2.8 m, length of 8.8 m and mass of 7.6 tonne - are greater than the corresponding values for Soyuz. Also, the orbital module of SZ had thrusters for independent manoeuvrability in orbit, which Soyuz does not have. Also, the orbital module and the descent module have separate pairs of solar panels for independent operations unlike Soyuz, the solar panels of which are in a windmill-like formation. What the Chinese did acquire from the Russians are the Soyuz-TM life support system, an androgynous docking unit and a pressure suit used by cosmonauts, as sample items. "They are not copying these; they are learning from them and applying what they learn to their programme," Clark wrote.

"In terms of complexity," Clark points out, "SZ is perhaps 2-3 orders of magnitude greater than anything else which China has launched and the Chinese seem to be putting a great emphasis on safety. There is no evidence that there were any orbital missions connected with SZ or the overall Project 921 prior to SZ-1. However, when the project was given the go-ahead, I am sure it was not like Kennedy announcing the Moon-landing goal where all of the design work still had to be done. The Chinese knew specifically what they needed to do and `hit the ground running', to use an American phrase." Since Soyuz's basic design was meant for manned missions to the moon, SZ should also be a potential spacecraft for the Chinese manned mission to the moon, according to space experts.

CHINA'S plan for manned space flights goes back to the 1970s. In November 1975, it succeeded in recovering its first remote sensing/photoreconnaissance satellite FSW-0. The recovery was the first attempt of its kind by China, which became the third country to do so. In this, China was ahead of the U.S. which succeeded in returning a satellite from orbit only with Discoverer 13. In all, nine FSW-0s, four of the five FSW-1s and three FSW-2s were successfully launched and retrieved. These successes at recovery led to speculation in the 1970s about a Chinese manned programme. However, as Clark points out, FSWs were primarily reconnaissance satellites similar to Discoverer/Corona satellites and had characteristics different from possible manned spacecraft designs. "Clearly, however, the Chinese had mastered one important procedure for manned flight," Clark observes.

China did actually undertake a project to develop a manned capsule. The FSW satellites were themselves too small to carry an astronaut. But the development of Shu Guang spacecraft with the specific objective of a manned mission based on the FSW technology was undertaken. In fact, 19 astronaut-candidates had also been selected from among the best of China's Air Force pilots. But in the turmoil of the Cultural Revolution, the Shu Guang project was poorly funded and was closed down. China has also not disclosed any technical details of the Shu Guang spacecraft.

The manned spaceflight programme appears to have been revived in 1992. Codenamed "Project 921", the programme got its go-ahead in September 1992. To date, four launches of the man-rated spacecraft SZ aboard the new launcher CZ-2F have taken place - in November 1999, January 2001, March and December 2002 - which have carried dummies with sensors, animals, plants, seeds and other scientific experiments. The fifth one is expected to be the manned flight later this month.

The SZ has a descent module and an orbital module, the latter orbiting for as long as 6-7 months. The SZ modules in all the four launches so far have been basically of the same design and size except that they have been progressively heavier (perhaps owing to on-board equipment), from 7.6 tonne of SZ-1 up to 7.8 tonne of SZ-4. The spacecraft can carry up to three astronauts. (In Chinese, astronauts are variously referred to as `taikonauts' derived from taikong, the Chinese word for universe but the official phrase is `yuhang yuan' meaning `space traveller'. A total of 14 yuhang yuans, from a select group of 2,000 candidates, have been under extensive training as part of the revived manned space programme, including two in Russia.)

The first flight of SZ-1, which lasted a little over 21 hours, was simply to test the basic design and systems of the spacecraft, carrying a dummy astronaut and some plant specimens. It consisted of a forward orbital module. The descent module separated and landed in Inner Mongolia on November 20, 1999. It was reported that SZ-2 carried a monkey, a dog and a rabbit and unspecified number of snails. The spacecraft also carried 64 experiments on board. It also carried equipment to monitor cosmic radiation - specifically gamma - as well as other aspects of space environment. The SZ-2 flight lasted 162 hours and on January 16, 2001 the descent module landed in Inner Mongolia. The orbital module carried out three manoeuvres and was allowed to decay naturally after March and it re-entered the atmosphere on August 24. SZ-3 was launched on March 25, 2002, against the first expected date of August-September 2001. SZ-3 for the first time carried the complete life-support system and a dummy human to test these systems. The orbital module was in orbit for six months. The spacecraft did not carry any animals this time. The descent module was recovered after five days in orbit. The SZ-3 orbital module finally decayed in November 2002. SZ-4 was launched on December 29. With an eye to the manned launch, SZ-4 carried a fully functioning life-support system, a sleeping bag, food, medicine, fire extinguisher, hygiene articles and other necessities. The stated total cost of the manned mission - 1992 to 2005 - is 19 billion yuan ($2.3 bn), according to Brian Harvey, a Dublin-based expert on the Chinese space programme.

THOUGH the Chinese officials have stated that they would announce the crew as well as the duration of the flight shortly before launch, there has been no official word as yet on how many yuhang yuans will eventually undertake the maiden piloted mission. There is no information on the duration of the orbit as well. The earlier expectation was that two are likely to fly. Also, till summer People's Daily had been reporting that two would be sent. However, Clark told Frontline in a recent e-mail communication that he believed that China is likely to fly only one astronaut as the Chinese have reportedly stated that the flight would be made as simple as possible and there will not be any major experiments on board. However, there are reports that the orbital module - which will operate for about 6 months after the manned flight is over - will carry a reconnaissance camera with a ground resolution of 1.6 metres. Clark also believes that it is likely to be for a day. In fact, he expects it to be for about the same duration as the first flight of SZ, which was for about 21 hours.

The plan for manned operations is a three-step programme: 1.Launch manned and unmanned spacecraft; conduct suitable earth observation and scientific experiments; 2. Extra vehicular activity (space walk), rendezvous and docking activities; launch a space laboratory; 3. Build large, permanent manned space station.

According to Clark, SZ has been designed to accomplish Step 1 and first part of Step 2. He expects Step 2 in the manned mission to be completed by around 2004-05 with the launch of a space laboratory using the launch vehicle CZ-2E(A) being developed with a payload capacity of about 14 tonnes. This could be in the form of four docking ports, say two SZ orbital modules with specialist equipment and working space attached on a long-term basis and the other two ports could be used by SZ craft carrying crew to and from the laboratory, says Clark. Step 3, however, would need to wait for the development of the new generation - CZ-5 family - of launch vehicles. With its payload capacity of 20 tonnes - the same mass as Russian Salyut orbital stations, the Mir core module and each of its four large docking specialist modules - CZ-5's core single stage launcher with four strap-on boosters should be able to put together a space station by 2010, says Clark.

FOR embarking on the ambitious space missions that the policymakers envisage for the 21st century, the development of a high lift launch vehicle is being accorded a great deal of importance and thrust. "China's existing launch vehicles cannot meet the requirements of a space station to be established," pointed out Zhang Qingwei, vice-president of the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation. The new generation launch vehicles will use technology that goes beyond missile-based rocketry.

The Chinese heavy lift launchers have been traditionally based on DF-5 ICBMs. Missiles use only storable propellants like a combination of nitrogen tetroxide (N2O4) and Unsymmetric dimethyl hydrazine (UDMH) for enabling launch at short notice. However, the specific impulse (a measure of payload carrying capacity) of these propellants is low as compared to cryogenic (non-storable) fuels like liquid oxygen (LOX) and liquid hydrogen (LH). Though cryogenic engines have been in use in the upper stages of launchers to deliver up to five tonnes of payload in GTO, or up to 8-9 tonnes in LEO, the new generation launchers that can launch up to 20-25 tonnes in the LEO use cryogenic engines in the core stage of the vehicle.

The new launch vehicles, according to Qingwei, will be modular in concept and will be based on core stage with 500 kilo Newton thrust LOX/LH or 1200 kN LOX/kerosene engines. The basic CZ-5 design is likely to have the first stage and the strap-on boosters use LOX/kerosene while the upper stage will use the higher-energy LOX/LH combination. It is of interest to note that Chinese have purchased RD-120 LOX/kerosene engines from Russia and have been trying to purchase higher thrust RD-170 engines as well.

Three modules with different core stage diameters of 5m, 3.35m and 2.25m are proposed to be used. The basic idea being that the 5m core stage will use 3.35m diameter module as its booster and 3.35m will use 2.25m as its booster. Also 3.35m and 2.25m core stages will also be used independently. The development is expected to take about 5 years. "The problem we need to solve urgently is to reduce LH cost," says Qingwei. While the basic 5m core stage will suffice to launch LEO payloads like a space laboratory, with boosters the new generation launchers will be able to launch payloads in the 10-25-tonne range in LEO and 6-13 tonne in GTO.

The new series of launchers will enable the launching of a man-tended space station or a large space telescope, or deep space probes such as the lunar probe and Martian probe, according to Qingwei. A proposal for the construction of a new launch complex facing the ocean in Hainan province is also being made. Apparently the existing three complexes cannot meet the emerging needs because of their locations. A proposal for the development of a reusable launch vehicle or a shuttle also exists. First a two-stage partially reusable vehicle will be developed and then a single-stage-to-orbit reusable vehicle.

IN recent months, China has also officially announced its lunar orbiter mission, christened Chang'e-I after a fairy in Chinese mythology. While cost estimates of the mission have not been made public, like India, China too is planning a three-stage lunar mission. The first stage, according to Enjie, is obtaining a 3-D map of the lunar surface, analysing the lunar soil characteristics and material distribution. The orbiter will use the proven DF-3 satellite platform to be launched by the LM/CZ-3A rocket and will use the existing S-band space monitoring network for deep space communication. The first stage is expected to be completed by 2010, according to him. While the altitude and such details of orbit have not been revealed, Enjie says that it will be a extreme full moon orbit, enabling survey of the entire lunar surface unlike part surveys of earlier missions.

Enjie has also given indication of the Chinese intent to establish a permanent lunar study station and use the lunar environment to develop products and industries outside the earth, and set up "self-sufficient" extraterrestrial homeland. "The prospect for the development and utilisation of the potential lunar mineral and energy (helium-3) resources is the most important driving force for returning to the moon," Enjie has said. The subsequent stages are likely to involve roving lunar robots followed by a sample returning mission before undertaking a human landing mission. These would require the development of high-lift CZ-5 family of launchers. Ouyang Ziyuan, the chief scientist in charge of the moon mission expects manned outposts to be realised by 2020 or 2030.

China's extra-terrestrial territorial ambitions were, in fact, articulated by a group of scientists of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. In a consultation report, "Building China's Space-based Infrastructure" in January 2002, they said: "Space-based infrastructure refers to the engineering system that will be built in space and used in developing and exploiting space resources and expanding the habitation of humankind." The report urged developing the space territory as a national strategy "to exploit as well as reap huge political, military and economic benefits from the `fourth territory' (after land, sea and air)".

The breadth of space technology development and its applications that China has set its vision on for the new millennium certainly evokes a great deal of curiosity and admiration. While one might be tempted to say that how the programme evolves needs to be watched, history also bears evidence to the fact that the Chinese possess the political will and technological skill to find their own way into deep space.