Tamil Nadu Assembly election: Crucial role of straight contests

A study of past elections indicates that the 131 constituencies where the Dravidian majors are facing each other directly hold the key to determining who will emerge as the single largest party and form the government.

Every election is a fresh beginning with new issues, parties, alliance partners, and candidates. In Tamil Nadu, the pattern of contests and winning ratios in successive elections in the past two decades shows a trend that enables us to predict the party that is likely to emerge victorious in the upcoming Assembly election.

Assembly elections in the State have always witnessed a two-cornered contest between alliances led by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) irrespective of the number of parties outside the two alliances. The emergence of a third alternative was only a narrative without actual electoral gains to show for it. In a few specific constituencies the alliance partners may marginally tilt the winning chances between the two Dravidian parties. But what remains a fact is that the alliance partners’ victory is ensured only by the landslide victory of either of the dominant two Dravidian parties, as elaborated by the authors in the article “ No room for a third front in Tamil Nadu ” ( Frontline , December 18, 2020).

Lessons from the past

The two Dravidian parties have led successful alliances in the four Assembly elections since 2001. Each Assembly election threw up a clear mandate to either of the two Dravidian parties. The leading indicator of the winning alliance is the victory of a Dravidian party in its direct contests its Dravidian rival. In the analysis of voting patterns, we classify the constituencies as a contest between (1) The AIADMK and the DMK directly, (2) Dravidian major and an alliance partner of the other, and (3) the alliance partners of the two Dravidian majors. In 2016, the AIADMK contested in all the 234 constituencies.

This analysis throws up three major trends.

One, in the direct contests between the two Dravidian parties, the AIADMK won 94 per cent, 87 per cent, and 51 per cent of the seats to form the government in 2001, 2011, and 2016, respectively, while in 2006, the DMK won 71 per cent of the seats to form the government. Thus, securing more than 50 per cent of seats in the direct contest is a necessary condition for a Dravidian party to form the government. This is also crucial because the two Dravidian parties have never had an equal alliance partner in terms of political strength in the State.

Two, in the past four elections, the Dravidian party that secured more than 50 per cent of the seats in the direct contest also secured a higher proportions of the seats in the contest with the opposition’s alliance partners. In this category, the AIADMK won 93 per cent and 96 per cent of the seats in 2001 and 2011, respectively, while the DMK won 75 per cent of the seats in 2006.

Three, in the direct contest between the alliance partners of the two Dravidian parties, the victorious Dravidian party’s alliance partners proved to be more successful than the alliance partners of the defeated Dravidian party.

All told, the Dravidian party that wins a higher proportion of seats in the direct contests between the Dravidian parties also performs far better in the contests with alliance partners of the opposition, and it helps in winning a greater number of seats for its own alliance partners in the contest with the alliance partners of the opposition.

Faceoff in 131 seats

In the upcoming 2021 Assembly election, the two Dravidian parties are facing each other directly in 131 constituencies. In this direct contest, the winning ratio must be 90 per cent to secure 117 seats— a simple majority to form the government. This is quite unlikely; hence, if one of the two parties gets, say, 60 per cent of the seats, or 79 seats, the remaining 38 should be obtained from the other categories of contest.

The AIADMK and the DMK are facing each other’s alliance partners in 48 and 42 seats, respectively. Securing 38 seats is also quite unlikely in this category of contest. Moreover, the contest between the alliance partners of the two Dravidian parties is restricted to 13 constituencies, which is too small to fill the deficit to reach the halfway mark in the Assembly.

Let us assume one of the Dravidian parties wins 70 per cent of the seats in the direct contest between them, that is, it secures 92 seats. Securing the remaining 24 seats out of more than 40 seats in the contest with an opposition alliance partner is easily achievable and takes the total tally beyond 117. Therefore, winning 70 per cent of the seats in the direct contest between the AIADMK and the DMK is the minimum requirement for either of the Dravidian parties to improve the probability of crossing the halfway mark and emerge as the single largest party to form the next government in the State.

Historical patterns

Let us see the history of these 131 constituencies in the 2011 and 2016 elections. In both these elections, the AIADMK won more than half of the seats and formed the government. Obviously, it is not the winning ratios that motivated them to choose these 131 constituencies for the direct contest. It is the vote share that they individually enjoy in the majority of these constituencies.

Wherever the two Dravidian parties had a direct contest within these 131 constituencies, they together garnered a vote share of more than 80 per cent. Each Dravidian party secured vote share of over 40 per cent. Wherever one of the Dravidian parties contested against the other Dravidian party’s alliance partners, the vote share of that Dravidian party was in the 38-47 per cent range. Thus, the two Dravidian parties had contested at least 118 out of the 131 constituencies in the last two elections and secured around 40 per cent of the vote share, which gave them the strength to engage in a direct contest. Since the two Dravidian parties engage in a direct contest in 131 constituencies, these are the places where the actual election-centric political discourse happens between them. And that sets the agenda for discussion in all other places. This is rationale for the argument that the major Dravidian party in these 131 constituencies influences the voters in other constituencies.

The two Dravidian parties’ individual strength in these 131 constituencies would ensure who would secure more than 70 per cent of the 131 seats. Since the difference in vote share between the two Dravidian parties is not huge, even a slight swing in vote share in a direct fight makes a huge difference in the seat share. The trends in these 131 constituencies are likely to decide which party will get to form the next government.

S. Raja Sethu Durai is a professor of economics, University of Hyderabad. R. Srinivasan is a professor of econometrics, University of Madras.