‘Fir Ek Baar, Modi Sarkar’. ‘Ab ki bar 400 par’. These slogans might have reached a crescendo, but it is getting increasingly clear that there is no single national agenda working for the BJP on the ground. In Maharashtra, Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis told media: “unlike 2014 and 2019, the BJP voter is now silent.” Why? It was evident after talking to the voter standing in line in Chandrapur, Ramtek and Nagpur in Maharashtra, that they were voting for the local issues rather than national ones.
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi made controversial remarks in Rajasthan on April 22—“If Congress is voted to power, they will give half the property to infiltrators”—it was bound to antagonise voters. For instance, in the second phase of the election, Maharashtra had four seats where Muslim votes were sizable, enough to in fact tilt the outcome: Akola, Amravati, Parbhani and Nanded. And in rural Marathwada, western Maharashtra, voters began talking about ‘Maratha and Muslims’ coming together.
It wasn’t the polarising narrative, but rural distress that was their primary concern. The buzz around the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Yojana, which grants Rs. 6,000 to each farmer per year, has all but evaporated since the programme was announced in 2019. Rural voters instead talk about how taxes on fertilisers have increased; the poor income from soyabean, cotton and tur. Indeed, the idea that ‘beneficiaries’ are becoming the ‘vote bank’ of the ruling party, looks shaky on the ground.
In fact ‘Ab ki baar, 400 paar’ has possibly had an adverse effect on the ground. When Congress leader Rahul Gandhi spoke, raising a copy of the Constitution, it created a buzz among the Dalit voters. And the statements of BJP leaders have forced the community to rethink their association with the saffron party. In Amravati, Maharashtra, Omprakash Zod, a professor and once a card holder of Bahujan Samaj Party, told Frontline that these comments are making BJP’s case worse. “These videos are reaching every mobile of Dalit youth. Even those do not like Congress are now towards the grand old party. This slogan has backfired on the BJP.” Realising this, the BJP immediately changed course. Modi said he needs 400 plus seats to make sure the Constitution is be protected.
The fifth phase of voting took place in Mumbai’s six seats, three seats in adjoining Thane, one in Palghar and three North Maharashtra. Shiv Sena’s Uddhav Thackeray’s speeches went viral. His rallies have drawn huge crowds. But when it comes to Mumbai, it looks like there will be a neck-on-neck fight.
‘No clean sweep’
Meanwhile, all seats of Gujarat went to poll on a single day. If there was one particular idea running through the voter’s mind it was: ‘This time there will be no clean sweep’, unlike BJP’s 26 out of 26 performances in 2014 and 2019. After Parshottam Rupala, Union minister and BJP’s Rajkot candidate, made controversial remarks against the Kshatriya community, Rajkot has seen huge gatherings against the BJP. Videos of this were circulated on social media, and on WhatsApp.
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There is a lesson from the political observers of the 2024: nobody, however mighty, can take voters for the granted. In Vikhroli Assembly constituency of Mumbai, Suyodhan Kamble, was standing in the queue to vote. When asked about the issues that may impact the elections, he said, “the arrogance of the power. Who gives them the right to say they are winning more than 400, even before voting starts? Do they think we are fools?”
