In Chhattisgarh, tribal discontent and unfulfilled promises seal Congress’ fate

The BJP’s win spotlights the effectiveness of its multi-pronged strategy, which leveraged the Modi factor, social media, and communal messaging.

Former Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel releasing the Congress manifesto for the Assembly election, in Raipur on November 5. Despite an unbeatable list of populist promises, the Congress was soundly defeated by the BJP. | Photo Credit: PTI

The results of the Assembly election in Chhattisgarh surprised both the incumbent Congress and the BJP State unit. The verdict also proved all opinion and exit polls wrong. Of the 90 seats, the BJP took 54, with a vote share of 46.27 per cent, while the Congress won 35, with a 42.23 per cent vote share. “Even the local BJP leaders didn’t expect a success on this scale,” said an editorial in the daily Chhattisgarh. Privately, several BJP supporters concurred, even as they credited Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the party’s biggest ever electoral victory in Chhattisgarh. (The election was conducted in two phases: on November 7 and 17.)

The BJP contested the election without a chief ministerial candidate, a considered decision by the central leadership on account of the party’s defeat in 2018 when it slumped to 15 seats after three terms in power since 2003. It somewhat made up for this humiliation by winning nine of the 11 Lok Sabha seats in 2019.

In the run-up to the latest election, the BJP’s campaign remained lacklustre from the start but it seemed to pick up closer to the first phase of polling on November 7. The party’s success lay in deploying different strategies for different constituencies and communities.

The sitting Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel exuded confidence but was burdened by the poor execution of welfare policies in his State and deviating from his party’s core political ideology. Under Baghel, the Congress in Chhattisgarh tried to create an image of being “the sole flag-bearer of Hindutva”, which failed. Although Baghel retained his seat, Patan, at least nine of his 13 Cabinet colleagues were defeated.

‘Modi Ki Guarantee’

The trump card, as it turned out, was the “Modi ki Guarantee” stamp on the BJP’s welfare promises, which, incidentally, were fewer than the Congress’ welfare measures. As additional ballast, the BJP worked on communal polarisation of the electorate, even among warring tribal groups, and reaped benefits.

Interestingly, the party secured a major share of the OBC vote as well. Sudiep Shrivastava, psephologist and political commentator, said that the BJP benefited from an undercurrent of Hindu-Muslim polarisation in the western plains of the State and a growing conflicts between different tribal communities in the hills. “The BJP swept the western part, defeating five Congress Ministers, at least three of whom were considered close to Baghel, including Mohammed Akbar, the Kawardha MLA and sole Muslim Minister in the outgoing government. The Congress won the majority of its seats in the eastern part,” said Shrivastava, adding that the demographic features of the two regions were nearly the same.

Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and Bhupesh Baghel performing rituals on the occasion of the Govardhan Puja festival, in Raipur on November 15. Under Baghel the Congress tried to create an image of being the sole flag-bearer of Hindutva, but that did not help it win votes. | Photo Credit: ANI

Emotive issues

The Congress could also not cut through the BJP’s subterfuge of election narratives built around emotive issues such as interfaith marriages and the alleged desecration of the saffron flag. Communal polarisation was engineered at Kawardha in Kabirdham district in 2021, over the alleged desecration of the saffron flag, and then in Biranpur in Bemetara district earlier this year over an interfaith marriage, and both issues were raked up during the campaign. They played a huge role in the rout of the Congress in districts such as Kabirdham, Mungeli, Bemetara, Raipur, and Durg, and parts of Bilaspur, Gariaband, and Mahasamund districts. “Of the total 24 seats here, the BJP bagged 22,” said Shrivastava.

In Saja constituency in Bemetara district, where over 98 per cent of the population are Hindus, senior Congress leader and seven-time MLA Ravindra Choubey was defeated by Ishwar Sahu, a rickshaw-puller, by profession who had lost his son in a communal clash. Sahu won by more than 5,000 votes on the BJP ticket. Soon after his son’s death, the clash, Chief Minister Baghel had offered financial compensation and a government job to Sahu, but the aggrieved family had turned down the offer. During the campaign, Home Minister Amit Shah projected Sahu as a human embodiment of the fight for justice. In fact, the BJP relied heavily on polarising issues across the State, with issues such as the alleged settlement of illegal immigrants, “love jehad”, the new Ram temple in Ayodhya, and the alleged “disrespect and abuse” of Sanatana Dharma.

The State saw a crackdown by Central investigating agencies. Chief Minister Baghel said that the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and the Income Tax Department were “contesting the election on behalf of the BJP”. Observers said that Baghel’s overconfidence underlined a streak of insecurity that emerged from unfulfilled promises, poor execution of welfare policies, and his government’s deviation from the party’s core political ideology.

Shrivastava said: “The BJP swept the western part, defeating five Congress Ministers, at least three of whom were considered close to Baghel, including Mohammed Akbar, the Kawardha MLA and sole Muslim Minister in the outgoing government. The Congress won the majority of the seats in the eastern part.” He added that the demographic features of the two regions were nearly the same.

Highlights

• The BJP successfully deployed different strategies for different constituencies and communities, outmaneuvering the Congress’s one-size-fits-all approach. This highlights the importance of tailoring campaign strategies to specific demographics.
• The Congress’s poor execution of welfare policies and deviation from its core political ideology alienated voters and led to its downfall. This underscores the need for political parties to stay true to their core values and deliver on their promises.
• The BJP’s reliance on polarising issues like illegal immigration, “love jehad,” and religious disrespect resonated with a segment of the electorate, contributing to their victory. However, the new Assembly boasts unprecedented social diversity, suggesting a shift towards a more representative political landscape in Chhattisgarh.

Congress’ promises

To woo women, the Congress promised the biggest ever economic benefits, including loan waivers and an annual direct cash transfer of Rs.15,000 to every woman above the age of 18. From tribal people to farmers and landless labourers to high-income groups, the Congress promised direct economic benefits to each section of society. One of its promises was free wood for cremation in urban areas. It did not work.

Sunil Kumar, editor of Chhattisgarh, claimed that the results were a verdict against the idea of trading votes for sops. “It’s truly amazing that Chhattisgarh’s voters, the majority of whom are below the poverty line, rejected the Congress’ offer of cash benefits worth tens of thousands of crores and voted in favour of the BJP, which had almost nothing compared with the Congress manifesto,” he said. Ironically, the BJP’s welfare measures included cash offers such as the Mahtari Vandan Yojana, which promised married women financial assistance of Rs.12,000 a year.

Ironically, Sunil Kumar pointed out, under Baghel’s leadership the Congress worked hard to create and maintain an image of being “the sole flag-bearer of Hindutva”. Clearly, that attempt also failed.

Tribal vote

In the tribal areas of Bastar and Surguja, the Congress suffered a serious setback. Baghel tried to use the “Chhattisgarhi pride” campaign here. The majority of Congress candidates had already served two terms as MLAs, and both regions are culturally and linguistically different from each other, and from the plains (Bilaspur, Raipur, and Durg). “This is why Baghel’s campaign didn’t resonate in these regions,” said Shrivastava, pointing out that the non-tribal population in these areas was disenchanted and there was anti-incumbency.

Chhattisgarh’s 32 per cent tribal population is divided into three groups: tribal people, Hindus, and Christians. During Baghel’s tenure, the conflict between these groups intensified, and the BJP was successful in polarising the Hindu vote in these areas, according to Alok Putul, a Raipur-based senior journalist and political commentator. There were several incidents of attacks on Christian tribal people, who were repeatedly denied permission by other tribal people, backed by radical Hindu groups, to even bury their dead even in their own land.

The BJP repeatedly accused the government of allowing religious conversions in the tribal areas. Addressing a rally in Kanker in November, Prime Minister Modi accused the Congress of opposing a tribal person from becoming President of India. The BJP’s two “parivartan yatras” from tribal pockets and the rallies addressed by Modi, Amit Shah, and Nadda in these areas helped the party consolidate its position.

The BJP won eight of the 12 seats in Bastar division, where Modi inaugurated the Nagarnar steel plant in October. In 2018, the Congress had bagged 11 seats in Bastar. Likewise, the BJP wrested all 14 seats in Surguja region from the Congress.

Interestingly, Mohan Markam, a tribal face of the Congress, who was Minister in charge of development of Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, OBCs, and minorities, lost to the BJP’s Lata Usendi in Kondagaon in Bastar division. In Lundra constituency in Surguja, despite protests from the State unit, the BJP gave the ticket to Prabodh Minj, a practising Catholic Christian and former Congress leader, who to contest from Lundra constituency in Surguja. He defeated Pritam Ram of the Congress by over 24,000 votes.

Similarly, the BJP’s Rajesh Agarwal defeated Deputy Chief Minister T.S. Singh Deo from Ambikapur in Surguja district. In the Bharatpur-Sonhat seat, reserved for STs, the Union Minister of State for Tribal Affairs, Renuka Singh, defeated the Congress’ Gulab Singh Kamro by 4,919 votes.

Although there was a decline in naxal-related violence under Baghel’s rule, there were several reports of fake encounters and human rights violations. In tribal areas, residents held several demonstrations against the growing militarisation of the areas and the expanding corporate footprint, which had led to the displacement of local populations. On many occasions, demonstrators at the protests were forcibly evicted. Such developments are in stark contrast to what the Congress had promised when it came to power. For instance, towards the end of his tenure, Baghel did a complete U-turn on his the promise of banning liquor in the State, claiming that it was not feasible.

Apart from the BJP, the AAP too attacked the Congress Chhattisgarh government when a liquor scam hit the State it last year. AAP leader Saurabh Bharadwaj demanded that the ED arrest Baghel and probe his role in the alleged scam. Incidentally, the AAP candidates lost their deposits in all 54 seats they contested. The BJP has not yet promised a liquor ban in Chhattisgarh.

The BJP also used the Enforcement Directorate (ED) to link Baghel with the Mahadev betting app scam based on unverified accusations. Baghel said the ED and the Income Tax Department were “contesting the election on behalf of the BJP”. Incidentally, the AAP candidates lost their deposits in all 54 seats they contested. The BJP has not yet promised a liquor ban, its leaders including Raman Singh weaponised the issue to attack the Congress.

BJP leaders celebrating the party’s win in the Chhattisgarh Assembly election, at the party’s State headquarters in Raipur on December 3. | Photo Credit: R.V. MOORTHY

Congress disconnect

Sunil Kumar said: “The Congress became a prisoner of the perception it created and failed to realise that the people were well aware of the non-performance of the government. Corruption, some to the extent of organised crime, was overlooked by it. For party leaders, corruption was not an issue in Chhattisgarh, even though irrespective of the fact that the Congress claimed to have defeated the BJP in Karnataka on the issue of corruption.”

Political observers also said the Congress failed to harness the power of social media and understand the resentment brewing among young voters. Shashank Tiwari, a Raipur-based political commentator, said: “The young voters who are quite active on social media seem to be enamoured of Narendra Modi. The election outcome is also a reflection of their anger against inadequate recruitments and job scams under the Baghel government. Modi clearly understood the gravity of the matter and reacted to it in his election rallies.”

In his speeches, Modi slammed the Congress government, saying that the party’s priority was to distribute jobs to its leaders’ kin. One remarkable consequence of the results is the unprecedented social diversity of the new Assembly. Prof. Ghanaram Sahu, a social-political commentator, said: “The number of OBC MLAs in the Assembly so far was never more than 25. This time we have 35 MLAs from diverse caste backgrounds—19 from the BJP and 16 from the Congress.”