Yatra challenge

The socio-political context of the blasts and the BJP Yatras in their wake pose major challenges to the UPA.

VENKITESH RAMAKRISHNAN in Lucknow and New Delhi

"MANY things have changed in the world over the past two decades, but politically we are getting back to the same context that existed in the country in the late 1980s and early 1990s. And therein lie the relevance and the political mobilisation potential of the twin Yatras announced by the Bharatiya Janata Party." BJP general secretary Vinay Katiyar did not conceal his enthusiasm as he presented this elucidation of the Hindutva-oriented party's national campaign launched in the wake of the Varanasi serial bomb blasts. Katiyar repeated the contention made on March 8 by his leader Lal Krishna Advani when he announced the Yatras - that the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government's policies of minority appeasement have contributed to a rise of Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism in the country. He added that the principal objective of the initiatives being taken by the BJP and other organisations in the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS)-led Sangh Parivar would be to "channel the Hindu anger against the UPA's policies".

By any yardstick, the new campaign of the BJP can turn out to be the biggest threat posed by the principal opposition to the UPA government in its 21 months of existence. All earlier campaigns of the BJP and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) it leads had failed, but the "new context" campaign has potentially dangerous ramifications. Primarily, the campaign raises the prospect of rampant communal polarisation that could throw large parts of the country into turmoil. The political messages emanating from the UPA government's actions, particularly its blatant departure from the National Common Minimum Programme (NCMP) for governance on vital areas such as economic and foreign policies and the resentment of large sections of Muslims against the foreign policy tilt accentuate this threat.

Katiyar's reference to the revival of the political context of the 1980s and 1990s makes it clear that the Sangh Parivar perceives parallels between the policies of the Rajiv Gandhi-led Congress government and those of the UPA. The Rajiv Gandhi government came to power in the 1984 Lok Sabha elections riding a soft Hindutva wave in the wake of the assassination of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and the anti-Sikh riots that followed it. During its tenure, the Congress vacillated between efforts to retain the soft Hindutva political advantage and to contain Muslim resentment against this line.

This manifested itself in the form of exercises such as legislation to uphold the Muslim Personal Law following the Supreme Court verdict on the Shah Bano case on the one side and the opening of the gates of the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya for Hindus to worship, on the other. While the legislation that followed the Shah Bano case verdict gave out a pro-Muslim socio-political message, the Ayodhya action virtually countered it by appeasing Hindu fundamentalist interests. It was in this context that the BJP and other Sangh Parivar outfits launched an aggressive Hindutva campaign to "liberate the Ayodhya Ram mandir" through programmes such as the Advani-led Ram Rath Yatra and made impressive political gains by building up a Hindu polarisation in its favour. The Congress could not match this all-out Hindutva campaign with its balancing act between soft Hindutva and pacification of minorities.

As it gets ready to launch the new twin Yatras to be led by Advani and party president Rajnath Singh, the BJP is certainly looking forward to a repeat act. A variety of issues such as the controversy over the Justice Rajinder Sachar Committee's survey on the status of Muslims in the country, the creation of the new Ministry of Minority Affairs, the 15-point minority welfare programmes announced through the President's address to Parliament, job reservation for Muslims in the Congress-ruled State of Andhra Pradesh, and the Justice Banerjee Committee report on the Godhra train fire will figure prominently in this campaign. The perception within sections of the Sangh Parivar is that the UPA has embarked on these "minority appeasement" measures essentially to balance its overwhelming pro-United States economic and foreign policies in the context of the perceived global conflict between Islam and the West. This may also figure in the campaign, albeit in subdued tones.

According to Sangh Parivar insiders, the campaign is designed to unfold in various phases for short, medium and long-term political impact. In the immediate term, the Yatras will strive to create an impact in the five States going to polls this year. The medium and long-term plans revolve around Uttar Pradesh, where Assembly elections are due, in February 2007. The revival of its fortunes in Uttar Pradesh is crucial to the BJP; hopes have been strengthened by signals from the grassroots suggesting the kind of stirrings of communal polarisation that the Sangh Parivar wants.

Communal polarisation has taken place in spurts since the last major terrorist strike before the Varanasi blasts, the assault on the makeshift Ram temple at Ayodhya on July 8, 2005. The ground-level reaction to the Ayodhya attack was characterised by composure. However, according to a senior official in the State Home Ministry, the socio-political situation in Uttar Pradesh has changed now: "The difference is that communal tensions have grown in several parts of the State over the past eight months owing to factors ranging from the local to the international, and these hostilities are repeatedly manifested in dangerous ways."

Barely four days before the Varanasi blasts a Hindu-Muslim communal riot in Lucknow led to the loss of four lives and property worth crores. This riot was triggered by a virulent protest by a clutch of Muslim organisations against the visit of U.S. President George W. Bush to India. The Muslim activists tried to force a general strike in the town but Hindu traders in the Nazirabad locality objected. Soon street battles broke out in the locality and adjoining areas. The Hindus of Nazirabad had no special liking for Bush, but the locality had abundant latent tension between the communities. By all indications, the virulent agitation provided an opportunity to release this tension.

Last October communal clashes took place in the eastern Uttar Pradesh town of Mau, resulting in the death of over a dozen people as well as the widespread destruction of property and places of worship. Just as the police and the government brought the situations in Mau and surrounding areas under control, communal violence broke out in a number of villages in November and December. These were following the killing of BJP Member of the Legislative Asssembly Krishnanand Rai, allegedly at the behest of Mukthar Ansari, independent MLA from Mau. The efforts of Sangh Parivar outfits, particularly the Viswa Hindu Parishad (VHP), to enforce a bandh after the Varanasi blasts generated tension in different parts of the State, although this did not lead to any major incidents.

At the State level, the Sangh Parivar campaign is bound to target the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (S.P.) government, holding it responsible for the terrorist attacks in Ayodhya and Varanasi. The perception that the S.P. has exploited the anti-U.S. campaigns to get over the embarrassment caused by the drug-trafficking charges against a Minister and the revelations that came up against party general secretary Amar Singh during the telephone-tapping controversy would also come in handy for the Sangh Parivar.

In terms of medium-term goals, the BJP would aim for the collapse of the S.P. government in Uttar Pradesh. The Congress, as well as the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), is in agreement with the BJP on this count. In fact, the Varanasi blasts and the new BJP campaign have come at a time when the Congress not only had decided to withdraw support to the S.P. government but was trying to wean away the Ajit Singh-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) from the S.P. Ministry in order to pull it down.

These moves were carried out on the premise that it was necessary to weaken the S.P. in the State for a Congress revival.

It remains to be seen whether the Congress would persist with this line in the context of the new Sangh Parivar agitation. But there can be little doubt that the BJP and the rest of the Sangh Parivar will persist with their Uttar Pradesh-centric manoeuvres along with the national campaign.