High-stakes contest

While it is important for the Congress to hold on to its last bastion in the north-eastern region, the BJP will be able to boost its tally in the region significantly in the 2019 Lok Sabha election if it can wrest the State from the Congress.

Chief Minister Lal Thanhawla.

MIZORAM just has one Lok Sabha seat and 40 Assembly seats. However, for both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the November 28 election to the Legislative Assembly in this north-eastern State bordering Myanmar and Bangladesh is critical to the popular perception of their relative influence in the region ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha election.

A total of 7,68,181 voters will decide the fate of 201 candidates. The ruling Congress and the opposition Mizo National Front (MNF) have fielded candidates in all the 40 seats. The BJP has fielded candidates in 39 seats. Chief Minister Lal Thanhawla is contesting from two constituencies, Serchhip and Champhai South. Former Chief Minister and MNF president Zoramthanga is contesting from Aizawl East-I constituency.

The Congress is seeking a third consecutive term in this last bastion of the party in the region. After a series of debacles in Assembly elections in Assam, Meghalaya and Manipur, the Congress hopes that a victory in Mizoram will boost its resurgence in the region.

From the point of view of the BJP, if the party is able to wrest Mizoram from the Congress, it will achieve its goal of a “Congress-mukt north-east”, and this in turn will influence elections to the 25 Lok Sabha seats from the region. In March, BJP president Amit Shah set a target for party units and workers of winning more than 21 of these 25 seats. The party is running coalition governments in Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Nagaland and Tripura and has its own government in Arunachal Pradesh.

In 2013, the Congress, riding on the back of its flagship programme New Land Use Policy (NLUP), retained power for a second consecutive term, winning 34 seats. The MNF won five seats, while its ally, the Mizoram People’s Conference (MPC), won one seat. The BJP drew a blank in all the 17 seats that it contested. The Congress polled 44.63 per cent of the votes; the MNF, 37.22 per cent; the MPC, 6.15 per cent; the Zoram Nationalist Party, 17.42 per cent; and the BJP, 0.37 per cent. The number of seats and the electoral equation, however, changed in the weeks running up to this election.

The Congress, which faces a perceived anti-incumbency sentiment, has been dealing with desertion by party leaders and legislators since September. As many as five Congress legislators, including Home Minister R. Lalzirliana, former Minister Buddha Dhan Chakma and Assembly Speaker Hiphei, have jumped ship. Buddha Dhan Chakma and Hiphei are contesting on the BJP ticket. Lalzirliana is contesting on the MNF ticket. The lone MPC legislator also joined the MNF. In the outgoing Assembly, with an effective strength of 35, the Congress now has 29 seats and the MNF six.

The MNF is a constituent of the North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), which was formed at the behest of the BJP in 2016. Therefore, even though both the BJP and the MNF are fighting each other in Mizoram, a post-election alliance between the two parties would not come as a surprise. The two parties may even have reached a tactical alliance, and not forging a pre-election alliance may well be part of a strategy aimed at dethroning the Congress. A similar strategy adopted by the BJP and another NEDA constituent, the National People’s Party (NPP) led by Conrad Sangma, in Meghalaya had worked. The Congress emerged as the single largest party in a fractured mandate; the BJP, with just two legislators, played a key role in the formation of a coalition government led by the NPP. (The NPP has fielded candidates in eight constituencies in Mizoram.)

Secret MNF-BJP pact?

Indeed, the Congress’ campaign thrust is that the MNF and the BJP have reached a pact that is being kept secret because the two parties are apprehensive that sentiments hostile to the BJP may affect the MNF’s election prospects in this Christian-majority State. The MNF counters the campaign by harping on how the Congress and the BJP came together in an unlikely alliance in May to govern the Chakma Autonomous District Council (CADC) after elections to the council returned a fractured mandate.

In the elections held in April to the 20-member autonomous council, which enjoys autonomy under the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution, the MNF won eight seats, the Congress six, and the BJP five. The election to one seat, where the returning officer had declared the Congress candidate elected uncontested, was stayed by an order of the Aizawl bench of the Gauhati High Court. The Congress and the BJP then joined hands to keep the MNF out of power. In June, the court vacated the interim stay order on the election of the Congress candidate, and the Congress strength increased to seven in the CADC.

Chief Minister Lal Thanhawla, who has been in the hot seat since 2008, and his party are pinning their hopes on the New Economic Development Policy (NEDP) implemented by the incumbent government in 2016-17. They expect this policy to be the game changer in rural Mizoram, just as the NLUP was in 2008. The State government allocated Rs.750 crore in 2017-18 and increased the budget allocation under the NEDP to Rs.1,000 crore for the current financial year.

In 2008, the Congress returned to power after 10 years of MNF rule. Its election promise of the NLUP proved crucial because farmers in Mizoram had been devastated by “mautam”, the phenomenon of gregarious bamboo flowering that occurs at an interval of 47-50 years and results in hordes of rats devouring standing paddy crops. The NLUP is, among other things, aimed at putting an end to “wasteful shifting cultivation”, “to develop suitable land for wet rice cultivation to attain self-sufficiency in rice and vegetables” and to ensure that all farmers have “land of their own so that they can each pursue a permanent means of livelihood under Agriculture (and allied sectors), Industry or Animal Husbandry sector”.

There is a popular belief in Mizoram that “mautam” brings famine: rats multiply faster when they eat bamboo seeds, and standing crops fall prey to the swelling rodent population. The MNF’s formation was rooted in the famine that came after a “mautam” in 1958-59. Formed in 1960, it was initially called the Mizo National Famine Front and in 1961 changed its name to the Mizo National Front. The MNF waged a two-decade-long insurgency, starting in 1966, which culminated in the signing of the Mizo peace accord in 1986 and the creation of Mizoram as a full-fledged State in 1987.

This writer witnessed the “mautam” of 2008 during a trip to the State to report on the bamboo flowering and the destruction of vast stretches of jhum paddy fields in rodent attacks. The Congress government launched the NLUP on January 14, 2011, after the United Progressive Alliance government at the Centre approved an outlay of Rs.2,873 crore for it for five years in August 2010. In the 2013 Assembly election, the Congress made the NLUP a major election plank to retain power.

The objective of the NEDP is “to bring about increased productivity in agriculture and allied activities by providing requisite public infrastructure thereby enabling the farmers to have a sustainable source of livelihood” and is “programmed for a 5-year term which will be a coordinated policy of the State government mandated to comprise all developmental activities under NLUP and under the Government departments”, the Congress government states in its budget speeches. The government claims that “the resultant increase in production will necessitate networking and processing of the produce, thereby promoting the transition to a market economy which will, in turn, create employment avenues for the people”.

The MNF and the BJP have made their allegation of rampant corruption during Congress rule a major election plank. The BJP hopes that the “corruption” plank will blunt the “anti-Christian” campaign against it run by the Congress. While the MNF claims that it will be a straight contest between the Congress and the regional party championing the cause of Mizo nationalism, the BJP hopes to open its account this time and play the role of kingmaker to strengthen the NEDA.

Another issue that the opposition brings up is the condition of roads, and the Congress has been forced to react to the charge. The Congress government earmarked Rs.100 crore under the NEDP in the 2018-19 budget to improve roads in a bid to stave off opposition criticism. The ruling party says the heavy monsoon of 2017 is to blame for the bad roads.

Mizoram is poised for an intense battle.