INDIA is expected to maintain its dominant role in the global rice export market in 2019 on the back of a rise in acreage and production owing to the government’s higher minimum support price, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its latest outlook, published in February, for rice, wheat and coarse grains trade.
The rupee's depreciation and the recent implementation of an export subsidy have helped stem a rise in export prices, according to the report.
The USDA also said that India’s “government-held stocks are well above the desired buffer stock levels, ensuring ample supplies”.
Among the competitors, Pakistan is expected to record a slight decline from a year ago in the supplies available for exports, while Thailand’s exports are estimated to fall significantly. Vietnam is expected to make some gains in the year ahead, according to the USDA.
The USDA also said that China would play a game-changing role in rice by cutting down on imports while simultaneously boosting exports. The country has re-emerged as a significant exporter, “shipping volumes not seen in 15 years”, it said.
In wheat trade, during the year ending June 2019, Russia is expected to top exports with 37 million tonnes, followed by the United States (29 million tonnes) and Canada (24 million tonnes).
Wheat consumption is set to be dominated by China and the European Union with 125 million tonnes each, followed by India (98 million tonnes).
Robust demand for corn in South Asia and South-East Asia would lead to a rise in imports to supplement regional production, the USDA said. The main driver of the demand is growth in feed use in the hog, poultry and aquaculture sectors.
In South-East Asia, Vietnam and Malaysia lead in corn imports, while Bangladesh is top in South Asia.
