Leadership change in Uttaranchal

The Bharatiya Janata Party replaces Nityanand Swamy with Bhagat Singh Koshiyari as Uttaranchal Chief Minister with an eye on the coming Assembly elections.

AS the elections to several States Assemblies approach, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is betraying signs of nervousness. This is reflected in the abrupt change of Chief Ministers, first in Gujarat and now in Uttaranchal. Another sign of nervousness is the BJP's increasing dependence on its mother organisation, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), from whose cadres it has drawn both its new Chief Ministers, not being able to find any State BJP leader with enough electoral experience. In the case of Uttaranchal, the installation of Bhagat Singh Koshiyari as Chief Minister, in order to provide "inspiring leadership" at election time, appears bizarre. Koshiyari, the dark horse in the chief ministerial race, may have displayed other qualities, but certainly not those of leadership.

Although a change of leadership before the elections was a foregone conclusion following the State unit's rebellion against former Chief Minister Nityanand Swamy (Frontline, July 20, 2001), the timing came as a surprise, even to those who demanded his ouster. Barely a week before he was removed, Nityanand Swamy was given a reprieve by none other than Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee himself. On October 19, a much-reassured Swamy went back to Dehra Dun after a luncheon meeting in New Delhi with Vajpayee, at which he was reportedly assured that he would be allowed to continue until November 9, the day the State celebrates its first anniversary. Nityanand Swamy had apparently requested the Prime Minister that he be allowed some time to quit with dignity. According to reports, he told Vajpayee that since he had done all the preparations for the anniversary celebrations, he be allowed to stay until the event was over, when he would announce his resignation. He was obviously allowed to have his say; emerging from the meeting Nitayanand Swamy told waiting journalists that all that he discussed with the Prime Minister was the preparations for the anniversary. "The question of my resigning does not arise. It was not even mentioned," he said.

However, he was back in New Delhi on October 26, having been summoned by the Prime Minister. The following day, after a meeting with the Prime Minister a dejected Nityanand Swamy declared: "I am going to resign on October 29. I wanted to resign today itself but have been asked to do so only on Monday, the day the State Assembly meets." At the party headquarters, BJP spokesperson Maya Singh said: "Swamyji has offered to resign voluntarily to make way for a younger and more dynamic person. But his invaluable services would be available for the organisation."

There was, however, confusion about the successor. The BJP high command wanted Union Surface Transport Minister B.C. Khanduri to take over the reins, but he declined the offer. Then the name of Bachhi Singh Rawat, Union Minister of State for Science and Technology, was considered; however, he too refused. It was only at the eleventh-hour that the name of Koshiyari, Power Minister in the Swamy Cabinet, emerged. Koshiyari was formally elected leader of the legislature party on October 29 and was sworn in Chief Minister the following day, along with six Ministers.

ALTHOUGH Nityanand Swamy's departure was imminent, the choice of his successor baffled many. Koshiyari may be years younger than his predecessor, but is not known to possess any administrative acumen. He is considered a simple man with simple means, at times obstinate and not open to ideas or suggestions. His only stint as an administrator was his lacklustre term as Power Minister. Basically an educationist with a journalistic background, Koshiyari's only claim to distinction is his long association with the Saraswati Shishu Mandirs. He is the founder of the Saraswati Shishu Mandir, Pithoragarh, and a member of the management committee of the Vivekanand Vidya Mandir, Pithoragarh, and the Saraswati Vihar Higher Secondary Vidyalaya, Nainital. He has also been on the executive council of Kumaon University. He is the managing editor of Parvat Piyush, a weekly he founded in 1975. His political achievements include being nominated to the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Council in 1997, besides being the president of the Uttaranchal BJP between 1997 and 2000. He was associated with the Uttaranchal Pradesh Sangharsh Samiti between 1988 and 1993.

According to political observers, the BJP has perhaps sought to play the caste factor by nominating Koshiyari. Koshiyari belongs to the Rajput community in the Kumaon region, which has traditionally decided the fate of any political party there. The party high command may have been of the opinion that the appointment of Koshiyari would lure the Rajputs, who constitute over 60 per cent of the population in the hills. But this move is fraught with danger as it would antagonise the Garhwalis and the Brahmins, who form the next biggest chunk of voters who wield a lot of political influence. As it is, the Brahmins are known to be unhappy with the BJP for the unceremonious ouster of Nityanand Swamy.

The reason cited by several BJP leaders for Nityanand Swamy's unpopularity is his proximity to veteran Congress leader N.D. Tiwari. This is likely to antagonise the Brahmin community further because Tiwari is still a revered figure in the hills. Either way, it is a tightrope walk for the BJP.

The BJP's worries are compounded by the spiralling prices of essential commodities, the failure of the government to create any employment opportunities as was promised when the State was created, deteriorating law and order situation, especially in Dehra Dun, and the increasingly positive perception about the Congress. The work relating to the delimitation of constituencies is likely to be over by the end of November and the State is slated to face its first Assembly elections early next year, along with Uttar Pradesh. Will Koshiyari make any difference for the BJP?