LONG before voting day, the Gujarat Congress had already ensured its defeat. In the recent municipal elections, the party lost several seats much before polling began.
In Godhra, it did not nominate a single candidate. Even the Congress city president, Firoze Sindhi, had to contest as an independent. In nine of the 47 seats in Vadodara district, it didn't file nominations in time. Is it any wonder then that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has won a landslide victory in Gujarat's local elections - both urban and rural?
The BJP has won in 18 of the 23 district panchayats, 137 of the 209 tehsil panchayats and 42 of the 53 municipalities and all six municipal corporations. Moreover, it has won by huge margins in the municipal corporations. In Surat, for example, the party got 90 of the 102 seats. In Vadodara, it captured 76 of the 84 wards. It even managed to counter the anti-incumbency factor in these municipal corporations, where it has been ruling for more than a decade.
The BJP has a lot to thank the Congress for. Its sweeping success is not only due to intensive campaigning, but also because the Congress in Gujarat has virtually disintegrated, leaving a vacuum in the Opposition space.
Chief Minister Narendra Modi is using this victory to proclaim his undying popularity in the State known as the "Hindutva laboratory". His first major victory was after the 2002 communal pogrom in Gujarat. Then, Modi had been criticised for playing the Hindutva card to sweep the election. This time, the BJP says, it has won without any communal violence. Yet the mood in Gujarat is heavily laden with Hindutva - the fear and fervour that it generates. If the Congress had not shot itself in the foot, would the victory have been as decisive?
But the Congress has killed itself. The party has been without a president for six months. It fought the election leaderless and without any organisational direction or coordination. There was sheer mayhem. Leaders were sent from New Delhi to plan the campaign. Sonia Gandhi's close aide Ahmed Patel was put in charge of Gujarat. But they could not manage to keep the party together. While different factions tore the party apart, local supporters had disappeared and candidates were fighting amongst themselves. In 13 municipalities, such as Godhra, it did not even field candidates. It decided to allow all aspirants to contest as independents. Congress leaders justify this decision saying it has been an old tradition.
Earlier, the Congress had a strong constituency amongst the poor and marginalised in Gujarat. But now, it has lost its famed KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi, Muslim) formula. "Congress workers' dialogue with our supporters amongst the most downtrodden communities has lessened. They have lost faith in the party," said J. Momin, a Congress spokesperson. "Voting percentages were low. We could not retain our traditional support base, while the BJP brought their loyal voters to the booth as well as the floating vote."
The BJP took the election campaign very seriously. The Chief Minister made it a prestige issue and took his trademark Yatra through the State, canvassing for local candidates. He managed to counter strong dissidence within the party and get local workers to rally round. To counter the anti-incumbency factor in certain places, the BJP nominated new candidates. To divide the Congress vote in minority areas, it supported several independents. The Congress, on the other hand, had no strong leader. Candidates were left to their own devices.
In Godhra, the Congress decided not to field candidates on its ticket. Yet, 18 Muslim independents who won the election (many of whom are Congress supporters) had strong bargaining power. The BJP had also got 18 municipal councillors, and needed the support of three more to form a government. Since the Congress did not seize the chance to unite the independents in time, the BJP managed to strike a deal with them. Later, the BJP backed out of the pact because it did not want to share power. But the independents have still pledged their support to the BJP. "We want peace in Godhra and we want to get our work done. That's why we have supported the BJP. Otherwise we are all part of the Congress," said Rafiq Alam, one of the councillors.
The Muslim community in Godhra still lives in fear after the backlash to the burning of the Sabarmati Express. Many youths were arbitrarily jailed as terrorists. Five municipal councillors affiliated to the Congress, including municipal president Mohammed Kalota, were imprisoned as accused in the train burning. Muslim leaders are now scared of the consequences of opposing the ruling party.
"Modi's bulldozer is on. They are winning by strong-arm tactics. They have the entire administration with them. The Congress doesn't have anyone to do dadagiri. So for now, we have to go with those in power or be left behind," said a Godhra businessman who brokered the deal between the independents and the BJP.
After the Godhra incident, several Muslim areas did not have electricity. Municipal vans would not visit their neighbourhoods to clear garbage. Now, the Muslims need to broker peace to make sure they are looked after. "We should have united our people. They are all scared and not ready to oppose the ruling party," said Firoze Sindhi, Congress president in Godhra.
But the Congress leadership is still living in denial, not willing to admit defeat. It has accused the BJP government of rigging votes. "We have filed more than 10,000 complaints with the Election Commission. Yes, we expected we might lose, but not by such a large margin," said Arjun Modhvadia, leader of the Opposition. In one ward in Vadodara, a Congress candidate got no votes. According to the Congress leader, he and his family had voted but their votes had not been counted.
There were problems with the electronic voting machines used in five municipal corporation elections, the Congress alleges. "For example, in Surat the number of votes cast as declared by the booth officer is 29,432 less than the votes counted. How is that possible?" asked Siddharth Patel, a Congress leader. "This discrepancy occurred in almost all wards in Surat. In some cases, the difference was larger than the victory margin and would have affected the election result. Modi and his government have utilised their power and the administration is with them."
What about the panchayat elections, in which there were no electronic voting machines? "Yes, we lost there due to the anti-incumbency factor [in the previous election, the Congress had 21 of 23 zilla panchayats], but not by such a large margin as in the corporations," says Patel. "People are asking whether the victory was due to Modi's magic or the magic of the machines."
Until the Congress starts cleaning up its own act, the saffron wave and propaganda in Gujarat will continue. The Congress will first have to tackle the enemy within before it can counter its opponents. Until then, Gujarat will remain not only "Hindutva's laboratory" but also its playground.
COMMents
COMMents
SHARE