What’s in store for India in 2024?

Published : Oct 10, 2023 14:40 IST - 3 MINS READ

Child artists take part in a carnival rally and walkathon as part of a voter awareness campaign in Bhopal on September 6, 2023.

Child artists take part in a carnival rally and walkathon as part of a voter awareness campaign in Bhopal on September 6, 2023. | Photo Credit: PTI

Dear Reader,

It was Bobby versus Babuji.

In the year 1977, India found itself at a crucial juncture, gearing up for a General Election after grappling with a 19-month-long Emergency. Indira Gandhi cockily announced elections, sure of victory. A fresh coalition of parties had just emerged under the banner of the Janata Party, founded by Jayaprakash Narayan (JP), a revered figure in Indian politics.

Ramachandra Guha, in his book India After Gandhi: The History of the World’s Largest Democracy, recounts how the opposition campaign kicked off with a massive rally at New Delhi’s Ramlila Maidan on Sunday, March 6. The event was scheduled to feature speeches by former Congress veteran Jagjivan Ram and JP. In a desperate attempt to divert the crowds, the government decided to telecast the popular romantic film, Bobby, at the same time as the rally. In 1977, there was only one TV channel, the state-run Doordarshan, and under normal circumstances, half of Delhi’s adult population would have been glued to their screens. However, “as a pro-Janata newspaper gleefully reported, on that day, “Babuji” (referring to Jagjivan Ram) triumphed over Bobby. A million people heard JP and Jagjivan Ram speak, along with leaders from other opposition parties, all united in their fight against Indira Gandhi and the Congress.

The rest, as they say, is history.

March 1977 marked the downfall of the once-omnipotent Indian National Congress, ushering in a new era of politics in India. Interestingly, the Janata Party did not project a single leader during the polls. It was, in essence, Indira versus India. The results foreshadowed what awaited the Congress in the State Assembly elections that followed where the Congress was defeated in almost all States. The people across the country had sent a resounding message: they booted the Emergency sarkar out. Although the Congress regained power in the 1980 General Election, India had changed, with coalition politics emerging as a defining feature.

Today, when we are living in times that many political observers liken to a Silent Emergency, it is vital to revisit this chapter of history. The present BJP government at the Centre is increasingly tightening its grip on civil liberties, particularly mass media. Recent raids on independent media organisations critical of the government’s policies are glaring pointers. The diversionary tactics today far exceed the impact of a mere Bobby being screened. There is a barrage of targeted attacks against opposition leaders, especially the members of the 28-party INDIA alliance, while constitutional institutions are compromised and wielded as tools to silence critics. Opposition States face intimidation through fiscal pressure, and there is a concerted effort to dismantle the federal structure.

Against this backdrop, a series of Assembly elections is set to take place from November 7 to 30, with results to be announced on December 3. There are compelling reasons to believe that these elections will serve as a bellwether for 2024. Just as the 1977 General Election foreshadowed the Congress’s fate in the States, will the upcoming State elections presage what lies ahead in 2024?

This edition of Frontline delves into precisely that question. Our reporters travelled through these five States to gauge the sentiments on ground and have returned with a collection of insightful and rich reports. Begin with Anand Mishra’s opening essay here and then explore the others.

Wishing you a meaningful week ahead,

Team Frontline

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