Dear Reader,
Lying between the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, South Asia is a vibrant yet intricate geopolitical entity. Its significance surpasses mere landmass. South Asia is the most populous regional bloc globally, distinguished by its remarkable diversity. Together, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka house over two billion people—approximately a quarter of the global population. From Bollywood epics to Nobel laureates, from ancient temples to cutting-edge startups, the region resonates with a dynamic complexity that defies easy categorisation. With iconic landmarks like the Taj Mahal, the Maldivian archipelago, and Mount Everest, South Asia is a realm where the ancient coexists harmoniously with the modern. It holds the historical legacy of the Indus Valley Civilisation and has been a stage for myriad collisions that shaped the world beyond its borders. The Indian subcontinent is not only home to major world religions including Hinduism, Islam, Buddhism, Sikhism, and Christianity, but also the birthplace of Hinduism and Buddhism. Linguistically diverse, the region boasts hundreds of languages—with India alone having over 1,600—and more than 19,000 “mother tongues” recorded in the country’s 2011 Census.
On the economic front, South Asia hosts the world’s fifth-largest economy, India, whose GDP is anticipated to reach $10 trillion within a decade or so. Bangladesh is also seeing strong economic growth, attracting foreign investment that fuels infrastructure development and technological advancements. The geopolitical significance of South Asia is underscored by the exponential growth in China’s investment here in the past decade, totaling $15 billion.
The demographic dividend is much talked about, with South Asia expected to host the world’s largest working-age population, exceeding 900 million, by 2040. This large young and skilled workforce poses an enticing prospect for global businesses, potentially transforming the region into a manufacturing and outsourcing hub. Geopolitically, South Asia occupies a strategic crossroads between influential players like China, West Asia, and the West, making it a key player in energy trade and a crucial transit point for global trade routes.
However, South Asia grapples with uncertainties, presenting a myriad of crises, from governance to communal and geopolitical challenges. Extremisms of various hues find influence among political parties across the countries. The demographic dividend has not been fully harnessed, and job creation, education, and infrastructure continue to remain challenging. The presence of two nuclear states, India and Pakistan, casts a shadow over the region, with Kashmir remaining a potent flashpoint.
Contentious issues such as water allocation, particularly for shared rivers like the Indus and the Ganges, add to the region’s challenges. Finding sustainable solutions for water management is imperative for regional peace and prosperity. South Asia bears the brunt of climate change, facing rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and glacial melt, which threaten food security and livelihoods, amplifying social and political tensions.
Addressing these complexities and tapping into the region’s potential needs astute leadership, regional cooperation, and a deep understanding of the forces that shape this volatile crossroads. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), conceived by Bangladesh’s former President Ziaur Rahman, now grapples with confusion, with real cooperation a distant dream. Belying the rhetoric about becoming the next European Union, South Asia’s immediate challenge is to maintain amicable regional relations while seeking internal prosperity and harmony.
Can South Asia fight as a united region and chase prosperity and peace, utilising its diverse assets and rich heritage? The latest edition of Frontline looks into this question. In his opening essay, Rakesh Sood, former diplomat and Distinguished Fellow at the Council for Strategic and Defence Research, stresses that the region is undergoing a transformative churn with fundamental structural shifts. A closer examination of these dynamics is crucial for the future well-being of all, especially our children, who will inherit the uncertainties currently haunting South Asia. Sood’s essay delves into these critical questions, offering insights that are essential for navigating the complex path ahead.
Wishing you a great week ahead,
For Team Frontline,
Jinoy Jose P.
