Dear reader,
Heads turned when the RSS publicity in-charge Sunil Ambekar said on September 2, the last day of the three-day Akhil Bhartiya Samanvay Baithak of the Sangh in Palakkad in Kerala, that the Sangh had no objection to caste census.
Though Ambekar caveated his response by saying such a census can be done only for the welfare of the laggard communities and castes and must not be used as a political tool, the very fact that the RSS categorically said the government can do it goes to show a churning in the RSS thinking on the issue.
But of course the RSS has always taken care of the BJP’s compulsions, albeit a bit late sometimes. Sometimes the damage is already done by the time the RSS realises the impact of its strong views.
In the 2015 Bihar Assembly election, when RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat made a passing remark about the need for a “review” of reservation, the then Mahagathbandhan of Lalu Prasad-led Rashtriya Janata Dal and Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United) (with Congress as the third player) turned it into a campaign, calling the BJP anti-Dalit, anti-OBC, and anti-reservation.
The BJP-led alliance lost the Assembly election that year even though it was quick to make amends and announce that it “respected 100 per cent the reservation rights” of the Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and OBCs. Modi even went to the extent of saying quotas could be done away with only after his death.
Again, in 2019, Bhagwat’s call for a “dialogue” on reservation created a row. RSS spokesperson Arun Kumar had to patch up with a statement that the Sangh supports reservation for SCs, STs, OBCs, and economically backward people.
In 2023, Bhagwat himself stated that as long as there was caste discrimination, reservation would stay, and people must be prepared to suffer for 200 years for the benefit of those who have suffered for 2,000 years. In April 2024 he again asserted that Sangh has never opposed reservation.
Despite these clarifications, however, the reservation question mark has never left the BJP and the RSS, continuing to haunt the party in the Lok Sabha election this year and even impacting its victory margin.
It reared its head again two weeks ago, with BJP MP from Mandi Kangana Ranaut replying “not at all” when asked if there should be a caste census. The entire BJP went into damage control mode, first distancing the party from her remarks, then snubbing and summoning her. BJP national spokesperson Guru Prakash Paswan even said: “The Home Minister has said that if a need arises, we will do a caste-based census. So Kangana’s assertion does not reflect the party’s stand.”
In December 2018, the then Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan, the SC face of the NDA government, said in an interview that the “perception in the mind of Dalits about the RSS needs to be corrected”. Earlier that year, after a Supreme Court ruling in March diluted certain provisions of the SC/ST Act, the BJP faced a backlash from Dalits for a controversy for which it had no direct responsibility. Dalit protests swelled across the country and violence was reported in many BJP-governed States. The Modi government had to quickly soothe tempers by filing a review petition first and then hurriedly passing an Act in Parliament in August that year to nullify the Supreme Court ruling.
The BJP is well aware of the complexity and contentious nature of a caste census. It asserted in Parliament in 2021, 2022, and 2023 that there was no plan to collect caste data and that the government had not done it in previous Census exercises either. Will it give in to the growing clamour for a caste census this time?
The emerging indications suggest that the party might find it difficult to ignore the elephant in the room, especially after the breach in its OBC/Dalit votes as seen in the Lok Sabha results in Uttar Pradesh, where its tally came down by nearly half in 2024. The Modi 3.0 government is now facing pressure from its allies in Bihar—the JD(U) and Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas)—for a caste census, besides the main Opposition party Congress.
With the INDIA bloc in general and the Congress in particular carrying out a sustained campaign for counting castes, there is a feeling within the NDA camp that resisting the move could boomerang. Already the BJP’s Bihar unit has had no option but to stand with the JD(U)’s Nitish Kumar when he passed a resolution in the Assembly in favour of a caste census.
Besides, the BJP might have outgrown its “Brahmin-Baniya” politics with Modi belonging to an Extremely Backward Class and the ruling party repeatedly patting itself on the back for anointing a Dalit and then a tribal candidate as Presidents, in Ram Nath Kovind and Droupadi Murmu, respectively. The party is looking for a larger canvas and might not like to take the risk of being branded anti-OBC and anti-Dalit by continuing to oppose a caste census.
The million-dollar question is whether the time for such a census has arrived. There are no easy answers.
Until my next newsletter,
Anand Mishra | Political Editor, Frontline
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