Dear readers,
India’s demographic dividend is a much-talked-about subject. But when elections come around, what is more in the news is always the demographic divide.
The politics of demography evoke powerful reactions. When the Narendra Modi 2.0 government revoked Article 370 on August 5, 2019, it was followed by fears that the BJP government would also try to change the demography of the Valley by allowing outsiders to buy lands and businesses and settle there. In 2020, these fears were accentuated when nearly 25,000 people were given domicile certificates. This development was reported extensively, especially by foreign media outlets and there was an outcry. Realising the emotive reactions, the BJP was quick to dismiss such fears as unfounded. But the fear persists.
The Jharkhand election, scheduled for November 13 and November 20, also revolves around demographic change. In this tribal majority State, the BJP, which successfully milked the issue of Bangladeshi infiltration in Assam, West Bengal, and Tripura, has made it its main campaign plank. It has repeatedly raised the bogey of Bangladeshi infiltrators changing the tribal demographics of the Santhal lands.
Here, the saffron party is using a mix of its infamous “love jehad” and “land jehad” themes in order to allege that Bangladeshi Muslims are marrying tribal girls and converting them, thus leading to a decline of the tribal population in Jharkhand; and also that Bangladeshi Muslims are taking away tribal lands for themselves. The BJP’s main campaign slogan, therefore, is “beti, roti, aur maati“ (daughter, livelihood, land), all three allegedly at risk.
While it is pitched as an emotive issue, shrewd political reasoning is behind it. Tribals and Muslims have been the bedrock of support for the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-Congress alliance that is currently in power in Jharkhand. While in the 2019 Assembly election, the BJP won just two of the 28 tribal reserved Assembly seats, it lost all five tribal reserved Lok Sabha seats in the State in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. A rupture in tribal-Muslim unity can, therefore, help the BJP gain some ground.
In fact, raising the issue during a Zero Hour mention in the Lok Sabha’s monsoon session, Nishikant Dubey, the BJP MP from Godda, went so far as to demand that parts of Jharkhand, along with Murshidabad and Malda districts in West Bengal, and Kishanganj and Katihar districts in Bihar be merged to create a separate Union Territory in order to counter the challenge of illegal immigration from Bangladesh. In his speech, Dubey said the growing influx of infiltrators had resulted in a decline in the tribal population in Santhal Pargana from 36 per cent in 2000 to 26 per cent now.
In August, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who is the BJP’s co-incharge for the Jharkhand election, accused the JMM government of engaging in “Muslim appeasement”, and claimed that the number of Bangladeshi infiltrators had risen “from 20 per cent to 48 per cent in 20 Assembly segments of the State”.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah, while releasing the BJP manifesto on November 3 in Ranchi, promised to “identify and deport” every infiltrator and take back the “land they had usurped” from the tribal people. Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a public rally on November 4 alleged: “Ye aapki roti chheen rahe hain, aapki beti bhi chheen rahe hain, aur ye aapki maati ko bhi hadap rahe hain” (They are snatching your bread, they are taking away your daughters, they are usurping your land).
A PIL petition was filed in the Jharkhand High Court, alleging large-scale infiltration from Bangladesh in six districts of Jharkhand—Dumka, Pakur, Deoghar, Jamtara, Godda, and Sahibganj.
But the devil lies in the data. And data don’t lie.
According to Census figures of 1951, 1991, and 2011, the tribal population in the State, which was 36 per cent in 1951, came down to 27.67 per cent in 1991 and 26.21 per cent in 2011. This is a roughly 10 per cent decline.
Contrary to the BJP’s claim that the tribal population declined by up to 16 per cent since the State’s creation in 2000, the major reduction happened between 1951 and 1991, when it fell from 36 per cent to 27.67 per cent (as per the Census). The fall between 1991 and 2011 (the last Census) was only about 1.5 per cent.
From 1991 to 2011, the Muslim population grew from 12.18 per cent to 14.53 per cent in the State, contrary to Himanta Biswa Sarma’s claim of a 28 per cent growth.
In Santhal Pargana, the tribal population fell from 29.91 per cent in 2001 to 28.11 per cent in 2011, a fall of 1.8 per cent, contrary to Dubey’s claims.
There are clear regional variations in the population figures that do not point to a straightforward replacement theory, as is being alleged.
For example, in Dumka, the nerve centre of Santhal politics and the constituency of the JMM’s Soren family as well as of the BJP State chief Babulal Marandi, the Muslim population was 10.10 per cent in 1991 and grew to 11.57 per cent in 2001 but declined to 8.09 per cent in the 2011 Census. In this period, the tribal population of 41.55 per cent in 1991 declined to 39.89 per cent in 2001 but grew to 43.22 per cent in the 2011 Census.
Between 1991 and 2011, the Muslim population in Deoghar grew by about 2 per cent while the tribal population fell by about 0.6 per cent. But in Pakur, the Muslim population grew by only 0.8 per cent, while the tribal population fell by 2.6 per cent in the same period. In Jamtara, which became a district only in 2001, the 2011 Census pegs the Muslim population at 20.78 per cent and the tribal population at 30.4 per cent.
It has been pointed out that when the State was formed in 2000, a large and mostly non-tribal population came in from eastern Uttar Pradesh and undivided Bihar, from which Jharkhand was carved out. In fact, this segment has been the BJP’s vote bank.
And, as experts point out, one main reason for the decline in tribal population between 1951 and 2011 is the arrival of non-tribal people from neighbouring States (mainly Bihar), and the continued migration of tribal people to other States in search of jobs.
The Loktantra Bachao Abhiyan (LBA), a collective of rights organisations, released the population figures of all 24 districts of Jharkhand and issued a statement saying: “It is being said that the population of tribals in Santhal Pargana has come down by 16 per cent and the Muslim population has risen by 13 per cent. All these claims are far from the facts.”
The LBA pointed to the Centre’s 2017 Economic Survey Report which shows that between 2001 and 2011, about 50 lakh people in the age group of 15 and 59 migrated from the State. This, they said, was because locals don’t get priority in jobs and because Fifth Schedule provisions and tribal laws are not implemented properly, forcing lakhs of tribal people to migrate over the past many decades.
But facts are always the first casualty in a polarised atmosphere.
And when Modi talks of “deceit with the daughters” of Jharkhand and the BJP’s youth wing Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha shares a video clip captioned “Jharkhand Ka Jamai Tola” (the son-in-law locality of Jharkhand) on Instagram, the polarisation pitch of the BJP gets a lot of resonance, especially because Jharkhand shares a border with West Bengal.
As the former Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev once said: “Politicians promise to build bridges even when there are no rivers.”
So Jharkhand’s politics, which once used to be about “Jal, Jangal, Jameen” (water, forests, land) has been changed to “Beti, Roti, Maati“ in this election.
Do you think the people will be able to rise above the cacophony and focus on their everyday struggles? And will the INDIA bloc be able to counter the BJP’s powerful divisive campaign?
Let us know your thoughts. Until then, we will wait for November 23 when the results will be out.
Anand Mishra | Political Editor, Frontline
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