Dear reader,
At a time of growing cacophony around national elections, India is also witnessing State elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, alongside crucial byelections in 48 Assembly seats across 14 States: Assam, Bihar, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, Karnataka, Kerala, Sikkim, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Meghalaya, and Uttarakhand.
But all eyes are on the outcome of nine Assembly segments in Yogi Adityanath-ruled Uttar Pradesh, with results due on November 23.
With the Congress abstaining from the Uttar Pradesh contest, the byelections have become primarily a direct battle between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party (SP). The results will test whether SP’s surprising victory in 37 of the State’s 80 Lok Sabha seats months ago was a mere aberration or indicates a lasting political shift in Uttar Pradesh. This is particularly important since the Bahujan Samaj Party, the traditional third pole of Uttar Pradesh politics, has become a pale shadow of its former self after three consecutive Assembly election defeats.
While Uttar Pradesh has nine seats up for grabs, its neighbour Uttarakhand has just one. Yet, the results in both BJP-ruled States will be crucial indicators of the ruling party’s political future.
Though the Election Commission did not notify the byelection for the Milkipur Assembly segment of Ayodhya—where the sitting Samajwadi Party MLA Awadhesh Prasad had previously shocked the BJP by winning the Faizabad Lok Sabha seat (Ayodhya falls under this)—the temple town remains central to the BJP’s campaign in Uttar Pradesh.
The party is also determined to win the Kedarnath Assembly byelection in Uttarakhand. Badrinath and Kedarnath, among the char dham (four holy abodes), are central to Hindu pilgrimage. In 2022, the BJP won all 13 Assembly seats of Garhwal in the hill State except Badrinath. The Congress later retained this seat in a July byelection after its MLA resigned to join the BJP ahead of the Lok Sabha election. The current Kedarnath byelection was necessitated by the sitting BJP MLA’s death in July. Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami and two former Chief Ministers accompanied the BJP candidate during the filing of the nomination, with Dhami promising to oversee Kedarnath until a new MLA is elected.
Winning both Milkipur and Kedarnath is crucial for the BJP. While Dhami leads the charge in Kedarnath, Adityanath—whose position was weakened after the BJP’s poor Lok Sabha performance—is working overtime in Ayodhya to reclaim influence over the temple town, the impact of which would go far beyond its boundaries.
On October 30, the Uttar Pradesh government claimed a new world record by lighting over 25 lakh diyas along the Saryu River during the Ayodhya Deepotsav. Beyond the spectacle, notable was the purchase of diyas from local artisans, mostly from Extremely Backward Castes—a demographic that had shown signs of shifting towards the SP in recent Lok Sabha elections. The SP’s Ayodhya unit accused the BJP of “politicising” the festival and “dividing” people.
During the 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election campaign, senior BJP leader Rajnath Singh claimed that under BJP rule, 83 out of 84 “Vikas yoga asanas” were performed, leaving only “sirsasana” (headstand) for the opposition. While the BJP won that State election decisively, by the May 2024 Lok Sabha results, Adityanath’s standing within the party leadership had diminished. Now the BJP found itself performing all asanas, including the sirsasana, to maintain unity.
After the BJP’s decline in Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha seats (from 71 in 2014 and 62 in 2019 to 33 in 2024), internal politics began focussing on potentially replacing Adityanath. Election data showed the BJP leading in only 162 of 403 Assembly segments, compared with its 2012 victory in 312 seats. Meanwhile, the SP-Congress alliance, which won just 54 seats in 2017, led in 223 Assembly segments in the recent Lok Sabha election.
Although the challenge was real, Adityanath proved more formidable than his counterparts in Assam, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, or Madhya Pradesh, where leadership changes faced minimal resistance.
These Assembly byelections are crucial for Uttar Pradesh’s political future. While the blame for the Lok Sabha results largely fell on BJP’s central leadership’s ticket distribution, Yogi has free rein in these byelections—and with freedom comes responsibility. An unfavourable outcome could reignite demands for his removal.
As former US Congressman William Clay noted: “This is quite a game, politics. There are no permanent enemies, and no permanent friends, only permanent interests.”
Understanding these stakes, the BJP deployed 30 Ministers and 15 senior party leaders as caretakers across the byelection seats in August. They assigned cluster-wise responsibility for 2-3 seats each, tasking block and district presidents with analysing booth-level caste dynamics. The party is relying on “karyavahak” and “gram chaupals” for last-mile voter connectivity. Post-Diwali, MPs and MLAs will camp in election-bound seats.
These byelections are viewed as a semi-final before the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election. Though the BJP previously held only three of the nine seats (with one each held by National Democratic Allinace partners Nishad Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal), Adityanath aims for a clean sweep to demonstrate his continued control over State affairs. Yet as American politician George W. Romney cautioned: “You can’t be too right too soon and win elections.”
So, what lies ahead for the Uttar Pradesh byelections? Has the 2024 general election truly marked a political shift, or has public sentiment swung back to favour the Hindutva party? Stay tuned for our analysis in the next newsletter.
Anand Mishra | Political Editor, Frontline
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