One of the most interesting facts about the 2022 Assembly election in Himachal Pradesh is that this time around it is not exactly a bipolar contest and a routine division of votes between traditional rivals, the Congress and the BJP. There is a third entrant. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which made an electoral debut in 2014 with little luck, has re-entered the State with hopes of making it to the Assembly while inflicting a dent in the prospects of the two parties.
In the current 68-member Assembly, the BJP has 45 MLAs and the Congress 22. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) has one legislator. Voting for the 68 seats in the hill state will begin on November 12 and the results will be declared on December 8. As always, the BJP, led by incumbent Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur, leaves nothing to chance and the party has unleashed an intense campaign, anchoring on the image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The ruling party hopes to hold on to power whereas the Congress is trying to make a comeback, suitably emboldened by its success in the four byelections (three Assembly seats and a Lok Sabha seat) held in late 2021.
That said, the Congress campaign has been no match to the BP’s high-decibel engagement, led by the Prime Minister and most of his Cabinet. The Congress campaign was led by Priyanka Vadra and steered by party president Mallikarjun Kharge and the chief ministers of Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, and former Haryana Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda. The AAP relied on Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, his deputy Manish Sisodia and Punjab Chief MInister Bhagwant Mann to rally its supporters.
One factor that has emboldened the AAP to make a serious bid in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat is the party’s success of heading two governments, Delhi and more recently Punjab where it stole the show from the Congress, the Shiromani Akali Dal, and the BJP.
Pollsters say the results in Himachal Pradesh are not going to be vastly different; some even predict a win for the BJP, banking on the Modi factor. But it should be noted that the Modi factor had not worked well in Delhi, Punjab, and Bihar. In Haryana, the BJP barely made it a second consecutive time and that too with the help of a coalition partner.
A confident AAP has fielded candidates in 67 of 68 constituencies, whereas the Congress and the BJP are contesting on all 68. The AAP calls itself the “new engine government” as opposed to the “double engine” slogan of the BJP.
Anti-incumbency factor
One reason why it may not be that easy for the BJP to win as many seats as it did in 2017 is the presence of anti-incumbency in the State. The BJP is banking heavily on the plank of development and scarcely makes a mention of inflation or unemployment. Its leaders say that inflation and rising oil prices are a result of global changes and the Modi government was able to keep them under control. The BJP manifesto released last week is titled “Sankalpa Patra”, and it lists out implementing a Uniform Civil Code for “uniformity in society”. It has assured a survey of Waqf properties as well.
Further, most of the BJP campaigners, including Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Adityanath, Union Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, have in different degrees mentioned the “success” of the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir in their election rallies. References to the temple under construction in Ayodhya and restoration of other temples in Kashi and Kedarnath were made ostensibly to appeal to the Hindu majority.
Interestingly, the manifestoes of all the parties reflect the sorry state of unemployment in the State and large number of vacancies in government jobs. The BJP’s Sankalpa Patra has promised five more medical colleges, a Rs.900 crore fund for skill development, eight lakh jobs for people in the State, a Rs.3,000 allowance to farmers over and above the Rs.6,000 given by the Centre, linking all villages with roads with a thrust on developing infrastructure around religious places, on an investment of Rs.12,000 crore.
The BJP has a separate manifesto for women wherein it has promised 33 per cent reservation for women in government jobs; three free LPG cylinders per year, interest free loans to women entrepreneurs, and the enhancement of marriage allowance from Rs.31,000 to Rs.51,000. Despite all the hype on promoting women, the BJP has allotted only six seats to women and the Congress, three.
When the BJP was called out by the media for announcing “freebies”, its national president J.P. Nadda defended the promises rather unconvincingly, making a distinction between “empowerment” and “allurement”. The manifesto, interestingly, also mentions the regulation and hiking of remuneration to BJP workers and promises to address the discrepancies therein.
The Congress’ manifesto, titled “Pratigya Patra”, promises to address price rise and unemployment. It promises to fill one lakh vacancies, regularise contract employees within two years, implement the Old Pension Scheme (OPS) and replace the New Pension Scheme (NPS), and provide an allowance of Rs.1,500 to women in the age group of 18-60 years. It also promises five lakh jobs for the youth, setting up mobile clinics, procurement or purchase of 10 litres of milk from every livestock owner, and clearance of payment arrears to employees, among others.
The CPI(M) has put up 17 candidates, which include fiery trade union leader and two-term MLA Rakesh Singha from Theog, former deputy mayor and student leader Tikender Panwar from Shimla (Urban), Kuldeep Singh Tanwar, a former Indian Forest Service officer and a farmers’ leader from Kasumpti. Its manifesto says unemployed youth should be given a monthly allowance of Rs 3,000 a month and the OPS should be restored.
It was the only party that had opposed the NPS when it was brought in by the 2003 Atal Bihari Vajpayee government. The party has demanded a special economic package and special category status for Himachal Pradesh, power royalty of 10 per cent per unit of produced electricity (Himachal Pradesh is a major power supplier to other States), and special grants to develop water resources. Regularisation of recruitment in government jobs and a minimum wage of Rs.26,000 for labourers are among its other demands.
The AAP’s manifesto has more in common with that of the BJP, though it makes a special pitch to compensate for the losses incurred by tourist operators and traders during the COVID-19 pandemic. The party has promised to give an unemployment allowance of Rs.3,000, free pilgrimage – travel and stay – for the elderly, Rs.10 lakh grant to panchayats, remunerative prices for farm produce and fruit growers, and a positive work environment for traders. The trader-friendly clauses include an end to “raid raj”, providing a Value Added Tax amnesty scheme and a VAT refund within a period of six months, and a single window system for tourism-related permissions. An advisory board would be set up where traders would have equal status.
Rebel menace
Despite the promises listed in the manifestoes, containing rebellion within their ranks has been a major challenge for both the Congress and the BJP. And the AAP has ensured there will be four cornered contests in many constituencies. There are both Congress and BJP rebels contesting under the AAP banner. For instance, a former BJP MP, Rajan Sushant, is the AAP candidate from Fatehpur in Kangra. He is also the AAP’s state convener. The BJP has fielded Forest Minister Rakesh Pathania who faces not only Rajan Sushant but former Rajya Sabha MP Kirpal Parmar, who is contesting as an independent candidate. The sitting MLA, Bhawani Singh Pathania, is from the Congress.
In the Paonta Sahib segment, Sirmaur district, former Youth Congress president Manish Thakur is an AAP candidate. The sitting MLA is Power Minister Sukh Ram Chaudhary, who was renominated, but he faces a rebel in his constituency. In the reserved seat of Kasauli, the AAP has fielded Harmel Dhiman, the BJP’s Scheduled Caste Morcha president against the BJP nominee, Health and Family Welfare Minister Rajiv Saijal. The Congress candidate Vinod Sultanpuri is the son of a seven term MLA, K.D. Sultanpuri.
While both the Congress and BJP succeeded in persuading some rebels to stand down, both parties have at least half a dozen rebels. Then there is the question of the disgruntled cadre. In sum, all constituencies in this swing State promise to throw up interesting contests.
