ILO thinks social safety nets can save us from climate chaos

A new report says half the world now has some social protection, but billions remain vulnerable to climate shocks and a just transition seems far off.

Most alarmingly, in the 20 countries most vulnerable to climate change, a staggering 91.3 per cent of people (364 million) lack any form of social protection.  | Photo Credit: GIANLUIGI GUERCIA

In a landmark report released on September 12, the International Labour Organization (ILO) revealed that for the first time in history, more than half of the world’s population is covered by some form of social protection. However, this milestone is overshadowed by the pressing need to address the climate crisis and ensure a just transition for all.

The “World Social Protection Report 2024–26: Universal social protection for climate action and a just transition” underscores the existential threat that climate change poses to social justice and calls for decisive, integrated policy action to close protection gaps, mitigate the effects of climate change, and ensure a fair transition for all.

The report highlights that 52.4 per cent of the global population is now covered by at least one social protection benefit, up from 42.8 per cent in 2015. While this progress is welcome, it masks significant disparities between countries and regions. High-income countries are approaching universal coverage at 85.9 per cent, while low-income countries lag far behind at just 9.7 per cent.

Perhaps most alarmingly, in the 20 countries most vulnerable to climate change, a staggering 91.3 per cent of people (364 million) lack any form of social protection. This leaves them woefully unprepared for the increasing frequency and severity of climate-related disasters.

The report also reveals persistent gender gaps in social protection coverage. Globally, 50.1 per cent of women are covered by at least one social protection benefit, compared to 54.6 per cent of men. This disparity is even more pronounced when considering comprehensive social security systems, with only 28.2 per cent of women of working age covered compared to 39.3 per cent of men.

Children remain particularly vulnerable, with only 28.2 per cent of children aged 0-15 receiving child or family cash benefits globally. This leaves 1.4 billion children without coverage, exposing them to risks of poverty, poor nutrition, and missed educational opportunities.

Financing gaps and expenditure

The report highlights significant underinvestment in social protection, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. To guarantee at least a basic level of social security through a social protection floor, these countries would need to invest an additional US$1.4 trillion annually, or 3.3 per cent of their aggregate GDP.

High-income countries spend an average of 16.2 per cent of their GDP on social protection (excluding health), while low-income countries allocate a mere 0.8 per cent. This stark difference in investment translates directly into coverage and adequacy gaps.

Climate change and social protection

The ILO report stresses the critical role of social protection in both climate change adaptation and mitigation. Social protection systems can help vulnerable populations cope with and recover from climate-related shocks, while also supporting the transition to greener economies.

The report argues that social protection is fundamental for climate change adaptation as it “tackles the root causes of vulnerability by preventing poverty and social exclusion and reducing inequality”. It can enhance people’s capacity to cope with climate-related shocks ex ante by providing an income floor and access to healthcare.

Moreover, social protection can directly support mitigation efforts through measures such as greening public pension funds, converting fossil fuel subsidies into social protection benefits, and providing income support to disincentivize harmful activities that damage natural carbon sinks.

Focus on India

While the report does not provide extensive country-specific data, it is worth noting that India, as one of the world’s most populous countries and one that is highly vulnerable to climate change, faces significant challenges in expanding social protection coverage.

India has made strides in recent years with programs like the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), which provides 100 days of guaranteed wage employment to rural households. This scheme has been relatively successful in providing equal employment opportunities for men and women.

However, as Ritu Bharadwaj, Director of Climate Resilience, Finance and Loss & Damage at the International Institute for Environment and Development, pointed out, “In India, MGNREGS has been relatively successful in providing equal employment opportunities for men and women. However, gender-specific challenges remain. Women, particularly those from marginalised communities, often have limited access to resources that could enhance their resilience to climate impacts.”

India’s efforts to expand social protection will be crucial in the coming years, especially as the country faces increasing climate-related risks such as heatwaves, droughts, and floods. The country’s ability to adapt its social protection systems to address these challenges will be a key factor in its overall climate resilience.

Urgent call for action

The ILO report makes it clear that the current pace of progress in expanding social protection coverage is far too slow. At the current rate, it would take another 49 years—until 2073—for everyone to be covered by at least one social protection benefit.

The report calls on policymakers, social partners, and other stakeholders to accelerate their efforts to simultaneously close protection gaps and realise climate ambitions. It states that social protection cannot be viewed in isolation but must be part of an integrated policy response to the climate crisis.

Key recommendations include:

1. Reinforcing social protection systems to demonstrate that states intend to protect their people through a reinvigorated social contract.
2. Keeping alive the promise of leaving no one behind by pivoting from reducing poverty to preventing poverty and moving away from flimsy social safety nets towards solid social protection floors.
3. Ensuring that social protection systems are gender-responsive and facilitate access to quality care and other services.
4. Preparing for climate shocks and just transition policies by having comprehensive social protection systems in place ex ante.
5. Increasing investment in social protection, with a focus on domestic resource mobilisation and international financial support for countries with limited fiscal capacities.

The report concludes that there are enormous gains to be had if universal social protection is accorded its due policy priority in climate action and a just transition. As part of an integrated policy framework, social protection can ensure that everyone can reap the benefits of a new greener prosperity, a reinvigorated social contract, and a rejuvenated planet more hospitable to life and future generations.

As the world grapples with the dual challenges of achieving universal social protection and addressing the climate crisis, the ILO’s report serves as a crucial wake-up call. It highlights the urgent need for action, particularly in low-income and climate-vulnerable countries, to build robust, inclusive, and adaptive social protection systems that can withstand the challenges of the 21st century.

The report makes it clear that the costs of inaction are enormous, and it would be both irrational and imprudent not to invest in strengthening social protection systems. As we approach critical deadlines for both the Sustainable Development Goals and climate action, the integration of social protection into climate strategies will be essential for ensuring a just and sustainable future for all.