Can we adapt before climate change drowns us?

Despite rising sea levels, heatwaves, and floods, global efforts to adapt to climate change fall short, leaving vulnerable communities exposed.

Protesters demonstrate during COP27 in November 2022 in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. At COP27, developing countries led by African countries demanded the adoption of a framework under the Global Goal on Adaptation. | Photo Credit: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

At the 28th Conference of Parties (COP28) on climate change held in Dubai in December 2023, a topic that seldom makes headlines found itself to be one of the most contested issues. Adaptation has seen lesser progress when compared to other issues like mitigation and climate finance, but at COP28, discussions around adapting to climate change saw heated arguments between countries. They finally agreed on the way forward barely a few hours before the conference ended.

For years now, countries have underperformed on adaptation, and this is expected to severely affect countries with lower incomes. At international negotiations, the issue has not received the kind of attention that other topics like climate finance and mitigation did. Developing countries say this is because richer countries have actively avoided conversations around the topic as any engagement would put pressure on them to pay for it. Adaptation therefore remains underfinanced, and this leaves countries underprepared to deal with climate change.

The adoption of the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience at COP28 has been lauded as an important step towards adaptation. Through the conference, countries spent several hours negotiating the final text for the Framework and it emerged to be one of the most contentious issues. However, led by the African countries, developing countries pushed for a final decision to be adopted while making some compromises. A look at how adaptation has evolved over the years shows countries fought similar battles in the past to give the issue due space in world climate policy.

Adaptation

What is adaptation and how important is it in the war against climate change? In the 1970s, climate experts began to wonder if reducing emissions alone would be sufficient to save the world from climate change. They said that this would not be enough and that countries would have to start looking at different ways to adapt to the effects of climate change that were already being felt around the world. While climate change “mitigation” deals with reducing emissions in the atmosphere, adaptation refers to making adjustments so that people can deal with the adverse effects of climate change that are already being felt. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines adaptation as “adjustment in ecological, social, or economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effects or impacts”.

In 1992, when countries came together to sign the UN Convention on Climate Change, adaptation was included as an essential to combat climate change. The Convention stated that various adaptation methods must be developed and adopted and also highlighted that it would be developed countries that would assist vulnerable developing countries in meeting the costs of adaptation. Countries would create policies and adopt various practices to minimise the risks due to extreme weather events like floods, cyclones, rising sea levels, etc.

For example, cyclones and floods lead to loss of lives and livelihoods. As climate change is predicted to increase the occurrence of these events, countries currently use some precautionary measures to deal with them. One of the means to deal with cyclones is the setting up of early warning systems, which would predict the arrival and intensity of such cyclones. With such warning systems in place, States can then look at what must be done to minimise the damage caused by these cyclones.

Adaptation also includes small-scale initiatives taken at the community level. Small-scale farmers are facing some of the worst effects of climate change with increasing issues like low crop yield, water shortage, and unpredictable weather patterns. To deal with this, several farmers with the help of local organisations have adopted methods like sowing drought-resistant crops, constructing small dams for water storage, etc.

In Tamil Nadu’s Cauvery delta, a phenomenon called seawater ingress is leading to increased salinity in the area’s soil. This has made it difficult to sow routine crops in the area. “Since 2010, we’ve been experiencing high salinity levels in the soil and now it is at its peak level,” says Subhashini Sridhar who has worked with the Centre for Indian Knowledge Systems in the delta region since 2001. To deal with this, some farmers in Nagapattinam shifted to growing certain varieties of millet as it required less water. “It is impossible to think of this at a macro level, as we need to pick crops according to the nature of the soil in that particular area,” she adds.

The IPCC synthesis report released in 2023 mentions various other adaptation measures undertaken like wetland restoration, flood-proofing of buildings, agroforestry, development of vaccines, provision of potable water, and others to alleviate risks due to climate change, including health risks.

World still lags behind in adaptation

Despite being a crucial component to combat climate change, countries have been underperforming greatly on the adaptation front.

Studies show that climate change could have adverse effects on the health of people. Warmer winters and increasing floods have already led to the spread of several diseases across larger geographies, instead of staying concentrated within the tropics. In 2022, a study revealed that over half of known pathogenic diseases had aggravated due to climate change. This includes diseases like malaria, dengue, Lyme disease, plague, and other vector borne diseases.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) stated that 2023 saw one of the worst dengue epidemics in history, with over five million cases reported across 80 countries. While dengue was concentrated in nine countries till the 1970s, it has now been recorded in about 100 countries and one of the main drivers of the spread is climate change. The disease spread to new areas and cases were recorded throughout the year, rather than being limited to just the monsoon season.

Governments across the world employed various measures to deal with the disease, from fumigating streets to tracking dengue clusters to enable early intervention. Several countries like Bangladesh set up dedicated hospitals to treat those affected by the virus. In Indonesia, the World Mosquito Program tried to introduce specially bred mosquitoes laden with Wolbachia, a bacteria that prevents the spread of dengue. This, however, was not welcomed by the locals who had little trust in such methods of prevention. Even fumigation is proving to be increasingly ineffective as more mosquitoes have developed resistance to chemical repellents. Overall, total dengue-related costs have been estimated at around $8.9 billion every year.

Where is the money for adaptation?

The Adaptation Gap Report released by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in November 2023 revealed that the world has a long way to go in terms of funding, planning, and implementing adaptation measures. The report stated that while current money flowing towards adaptation is estimated to be around USD 21 billion, the world actually needs to pump between $215 billion to $387 billion into meeting the adaptation needs of developing countries alone. This is predicted to increase after 2050 as the world could face more climate-related risks thereby increasing the need for adaptation. The report stated that adaptation is therefore extremely underfinanced and the world needs up to 18 times the current amount of adaptation finance.

At COP28, India told the UNFCCC that its spending on adaptation comes up to 5.6 per cent of its GDP, and the country expects to spend Rs.57 lakh crore more in the next seven years.

Source: Adaptation Gap Report, 2023.

The Adaptation Gap Report therefore shows that countries’ promise to double finance for adaptation by 2025 would reduce the gap by barely 10 per cent. With countries, especially richer countries, performing poorly in mitigating climate change (reducing emissions), experts say that the world could reach a limit on its ability to adapt to climate disasters. If emissions are not maintained within a certain level, the world may not be able to adapt to climate change. IPCC scientists state that these limits are inevitable in some cases like coral reefs. Studies show that if the world grows warmer by 1.5°C, around 90 per cent of coral reefs would be at threat of being wiped out due to warming oceans. This would heavily impact all life dependent on them, including one billion people.

While some progress has been made over the years, scientists state that countries are nowhere near where they should ideally be to become climate-resilient. The IPCC synthesis report says, “At current rates of adaptation planning and implementation the adaptation gap will continue to grow.” At COP28, a report by the World Meteorological Organization and the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction revealed that only half the world was equipped with early warning systems to predict natural disasters like floods and earthquakes. This came at a time when Tamil Nadu was hit by a cyclone and floods. The state was not entirely prepared to handle floods as the India Meteorological Department failed to make timely and accurate predictions. Earlier in 2023, a report found that 72 per cent of districts in India were exposed to extreme flood events, but only 25 per cent of them had early warning systems in place. Tamil Nadu is one of the 12 states with poor warning systems, despite facing floods almost every year.

Experts have also warned of “maladaptation” or adaptation measures taken which have caused more harm than good. For example, irrigation facilities in drought-prone areas could be very expensive, and thus continuing to rely on water that is not guaranteed is termed a maladaptation. On the coasts of Fiji, large walls had been built to act as protection from rising sea levels. It was however found that these walls obstruct storm water from draining out into the sea, thereby exposing the people to flooding. Experts claim that some of these measures create a false sense of security for people living in these areas.

“Although we talk a lot about how much funding is needed for adaptation, we should spend more time improving the adaptation projects that are already in place. Many of these are not effective, or in the worst case, are maladaptation - that is, they are making people more vulnerable to climate change, rather than less vulnerable.” says Dr Lisa Schipper, professor of development geography at the University of Bonn who also co-led a chapter on adaptation in the 2022 IPCC report.

How adaptation came to be prioritised

Despite being crucial to combat climate change, adaptation has often been sidelined in international negotiations. While issues like mitigation and climate finance have certain targets in place, adaptation lacks hard targets that countries must follow.

Prior to 2000, adaptation was not considered a separate topic in climate negotiations. Due to this, a dedicated plan of action for adaptation was missing. In 2001, however, after the IPCC published evidence that climate change was leading to changing weather patterns, countries took substantial steps to ramp up adaptation efforts the same year. The Marrakesh Accords signed in 2001 were considered the first breakthrough for adaptation and several initiatives were introduced, including the setting up of a separate Adaptation Fund to finance adaptation activities.

In 2010 in Cancun, adaptation was accorded the same importance as mitigation, and in 2007, adaptation was established as a separate pillar of the UNFCCC that required its own space in global policy. In Paris however, developed countries tried to diminish its importance in 2015. Developing countries stood united and ensured that the issue received due attention and established the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) under the Paris Agreement as a means to provide a long term vision on adaptation.

“A common argument you hear from developed countries is that adaptation is a local issue. But the cause of “this local issue “ is global actions—inaction rather—by the developed countries to undertake ambitious emissions reductions and constantly reneging on their promises. While it is important for the world to focus on mitigation, climate impacts are happening and as science has established, limits to adaptation are being reached. Therefore, it is no longer a choice for developing countries to centre their focus on adaptation and addressing loss and damage. Singular focus on mitigation will not resolve the climate crisis,” says Indrajit Bose, Adviser, Climate Change, Third World Network.

A picture taken on February 5, 2024 in Puerto de Sagunto, near Valencia, shows a banner reading ‘No to water for Catalonia’ near the Sagunto port desalination plant, that could deliver water to be carried by boat to Barcelona. Spain’s second city Barcelona and much of the surrounding region of Catalonia entered a drought emergency on February 1. | Photo Credit: JOSE JORDAN

What happened at COP28 in Dubai

At COP28, discussions were planned on the GGA as well as discussions around adaptation finance. Countries got off to a rocky start on adaptation finance—even though they had agreed to double finance for adaptation back in 2021, they were unable to finalise a baseline figure for the same. Developing countries led by African countries said that simply doubling adaptation finance would do little to bridge the gap in adaptation and called for more ambitious targets to be set. This however was not accepted by richer countries like the US and Switzerland.

One of the most contentious issues at COP28 however was discussions that ensued around the GGA. At COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh, developing countries led by African countries demanded the adoption of a framework under the GGA. This however was met with disagreements from richer countries who said that they needed one more year to decide on the framework. As they entered COP28, negotiations saw fundamental disagreements between countries on issues of finance and principles that would guide the framework.

While developing countries said that the principle of equity must be reflected in the framework, rich countries refused. Including the principle of equity would mean that developed countries would have to agree to more ambitious targets. Another contentious issue that emerged was ensuring that the finance, technology, and other resources (together termed the means of implementation) were provided by developed countries to ensure the implementation of adaptation. Though the final text on this was a watered-down version of the text proposed by developing countries, experts say that the text managed to retain some strong language holding developed countries responsible.

The final text—termed the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience—laid down some targets on adaptation for countries to meet. This included the establishment of early warning systems in all countries, planning and implementation of countries’ domestic adaptation plans by 2030, etc. It also specified priority areas for adaptation like water, health, food, etc.

Climate activists and experts are eager to see what COP29 in Azerbaijan’s Baku has in store for adaptation. With COP29 expected to be a “finance COP”, they expect larger financial flows for adaptation and this could be included in the mechanism of the new climate finance goal that would be finalised this year. The global stocktake exercise which concluded at COP28 was also aimed at providing a roadmap for countries to reassess and take forward climate action. This is also expected to help with further adaptation action. Though the highlight of the event was the acknowledgement for the need for a “fair and equitable” transition away from fossil fuels, Zambia’s representative at COP28 said at the closing plenary that GGA was the “most important” for Africa.

Mrinali K. is Climate Research Lead and Advisor with Land Conflict Watch, an independent network of researchers studying land conflicts, climate change, and natural resource governance in India.