Uttarakhand Assembly election results: The BJP's winning ways

The BJP sweeps to power in Uttarakhand on the strength of its image as a passionate defender of the national interest, its sway over the poor achieved through the distribution of free ration, and communal polarisation.

In Dehradun on March 10, BJP leaders Pralhad Joshi, Pushkar Singh Dhami, Kailash Vijayvargiya and others celebrate the party’s win in the Uttarakhand Assembly elections. Chief Minister Dhami lost from the Khatima seat.

Despite the signs of anti-incumbency in the hill State of Uttarakhand, the Bharatiya Janata Party won a comfortable majority in the Assembly elections, winning 47 of the 70 seats. This is the first time any ruling party has returned to power in the State, which was carved out of Uttar Pradesh in 2000. The Congress finished a distant second with 19 seats, which was a marginal improvement from its tally of 11 in the 2017 elections.

A number of factors contributed to the BJP’s victory. Key among them were its perceived image as a passionate defender of the national interest, its sway over the poor achieved by the distribution of free rations, and the undercurrents of religious polarisation that came up in the form of a controversial ‘dharma sansad’ (religious conclave) in Haridwar nearly two months ahead of the election.

Throughout the campaign, there were varying perceptions of a sharp contest between the BJP and the Congress. Unemployment and unchecked migration of local people as a result, combined with price rises, gave the Congress an opportunity to capitalise on people’s frustration and oust the BJP government. The BJP government had been led by three Chief Ministers in five years—a testimony to the party’s own assessment of an anti-incumbency mood among the people. The fact that no incumbent party had ever returned to power also fuelled speculation among the party’s avid supporters and political observers of a comeback for the Congress.

However, as Frontline had reported, despite the fact that the educated youth were dissatisfied and even the BJP’s ardent supporters admitted that the contest was close, there were impediments to a Congress victory. The first was that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had maintained a hold over a section of the poor. A tea seller in Jeolikote said, “We got free ration during the lockdown and there are several other sops. We have nothing to complain.” Other factors were the BJP’s mammoth election machinery, money power disproportionate to its real influence and unrivalled ability to evoke Hindu nationalist sentiments (“ Close Contest ”, Frontline , March 11, 2022).

The Congress’ setback came despite its energetic campaign focussing on issues of livelihood. Its manifesto, titled ‘Swabhimaan Pratigya Patra’, promised 4,00,000 jobs, cooking gas cylinders for Rs.500, and 40 per cent police postings for women. But it appears that the Hindutva brigade’s attempts to sway the electorate on communal lines got the better of the Congress’ campaign.

Hindutva politics

Attempts to promote Hindutva politics made headlines when various “religious leaders” assembled for a “dharma sansad” between December 17 and 19 in Haridwar. Some of the speakers at the conclave delivered explicit hate messages against Muslims, even asking the police, politicians and people to arm themselves against the minority community. This was followed by a controversy over former Congress Chief Minister Harish Rawat’s alleged commitment to Akil Ahmad, vice president of the party’s State unit, to building a Muslim university.

Despite the Congress and Ahmad himself clarifying that the accusations were false, the BJP used it to its advantage. At a virtual rally on February 8 in Udhamsingh Nagar, Modi said: “How dare they even think of speaking about such a [Muslim] university? This is the proof of their appeasement politics.”

The BJP’s cadre added steam to these polarising games with relentless social media propaganda. For instance, a polling agent for the party in Haldwani, requesting anonymity, told this reporter, “There is polarisation, though it is not palpable. It will help us at the hustings.” He admitted that workers like him were tasked with nurturing and perpetuating online myths aimed at instilling Hindu pride.

The BJP also claimed credit for ‘religious tourism’ in the State, while accusing the Congress of neglecting people’s faith while it was in power. At the Udhamsingh Nagar rally on February 8, Modi alleged that the Congress, which was in power in Delhi and Uttar Pradesh for years, “never thought of its pilgrimage, tourism, or char dham” . One of the electoral promises of the BJP was the expansion of the char dham project by developing roads linking all pilgrimage sites.

In a State that sends a significant number of people to the Army, the induction of Ajit Doval and General Bipin Rawat, both having their roots in the State, as National Security Adviser and Chief of Defence Staff respectively, stood the saffron party in good stead. When Rawat was killed in a helicopter crash on December 8, 2021, the BJP incited passions again, making unproven allegations against the Congress of disrespecting the late General. No less a person than the Prime Minister relayed this message when he held his first physical rally in Uttarakhand on February 11 at the National Institute of Technology grounds in Srinagar, Uttarakhand.

The dividends of these tirade against the Congress were easy to detect. In the Garhwal region, home to thousands of defence personnel, the BJP almost retained its stellar show of 2017. It won 29 of the 41 constituencies in Garhwal, marginally down from its previous tally of 34. The Congress marginally improved its numbers from six to eight. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Independents won two seats each. Of the 29 seats in the Kumaon region, the BJP won 18, down from 23 in 2017, while the Congress got 11, up from five in 2017.

Wooing defence personnel

When it came to wooing defence personnel’s families, the Congress too was not behind the BJP. In December last year, soon after General Rawat’s death, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi addressed a “Sainik samman” (glory to the soldiers) rally. What drew people’s attention were large cut-outs of the former CDS and other soldiers who died along with him in the crash.

The grand old party also heralded a “veer gram parikrama yatra” (valour parade) from Bipin Rawat’s native village. While political analysts are of the opinion that such exercises prevented the BJP from pulverising the Congress on the issue of national interest, it has a long way to go before it can compete with its adversary on that front.

The BJP saw a slight decrease in its vote share, getting 44.3 per cent votes as against 46.5 per cent in 2017. The Congress, on the other hand, got 37.91 per cent votes, up from 33.5 per cent in the previous elections.

This time, too, Uttarakhand continued its tradition of scripting big-ticket setbacks. The hill State is known for defeating each one of its sitting Chief Ministers. This time, Pushkar Singh Dhami, who contested from Khatima, bore the brunt, losing to Congress’ Bhuwan Chandra Kapti. Significantly, Harish Rawat, who was touted as the Congress’ chief ministerial candidate, lost to the BJP’s Mohan Singh Bisht in Lal Kuan.

The Congress’ prospects were also dented by the advent of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which attempted to woo the defence community in a major way. It even nominated former colonel Ajay Kothiyal as its chief ministerial candidate.

There was a general consensus that the AAP’s outreach to the families of the armed forces personnel would hurt the Congress more than the BJP. Though AAP candidates, including Kothiyal, did not win, the party polled 3.31 per cent of the votes.