Survey methodology

THE pre-poll sample survey is based on 1,775 face-to-face interviews conducted between November 22 and 27, just before the scrutiny of nominations and the formal launch of the campaign. The sample was selected by following multi-stage random sampling. A sample of 27 Assembly constituencies was drawn randomly (probability proportionate to size procedure) and matched with the demographic and past electoral records for its representativeness. Within each sampled constituency, three locations (polling station areas) were selected randomly. Finally, a sample of 35 to 40 electors was randomly drawn from the electoral rolls in each of the sampled locations. Thus a target sample of about 2,900 was approached at their homes, of whom 1,775 could be interviewed. In order to ensure random sampling, no substitution was allowed in case a sampled respondent was not available or could not be interviewed.

The respondents included 50 per cent women (actual share in electorate per cent), 9 per cent Scheduled Castes (actual share 8 per cent), 12 per cent Scheduled Tribes (actual share 15 per cent) and 8 per cent Muslims (actual share 9 per cent). This broadly corresponds to the demographic profile of Gujarat. The respondents underrepresented urban Gujarati voters (27 per cent of the sample interviewed compared with 37 per cent of the population) owing to the larger size of urban constituencies and the lower response rate. Any such significant deviation has been adjusted by weighing the data appropriately.

The survey was designed by a team that included Professor D.L. Sheth, Yogendra Yadav and Sanjay Kumar of the CSDS and Professor Ghanshyam Shah of the Jawaharlal Nehru University in collaboration with the State coordinator Professor P.M. Patel of Maharaja Sayajirao University, Baroda. Professor Patel also supervised the field-work in association with four regional coordinators, Dr. Hemixa Rao, Gaurang Jani, Dr. Gajendra B. Shukla and Dr. Bhanu M. Parmar. A team of 54 trained investigators drawn from the various universities of the state carried out the survey. The data were processed by Kanchan Malhotra, Himanshu Bhattacharya, H.A.Q.A. Hilal, Ritu Rao and Bhaskar Jha at the CSDS. The survey was co-sponsored by Frontline and NDTV.