Saffron theatrics

Chief Minister Narendra Modi wants to make Godhra and the `Muslim terrorist' the only talking point, despite the Prime Minister's assurances and the Election Commission's actions.

THE theatre of the absurd continues in Gujarat. The Chief Minister admits himself to hospital because he does not want his rival to contest the elections. A Congress(I) legislator's men attack his own party's office because he was denied the party ticket. When he finally does get the ticket, a woman aspirant who lost out in the tussle allegedly attempts suicide. And the Bharatiya Janata Party wants to railroad all other issues and fight the election based on the burning of a train. Despite assurances from Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee that the Godhra incident will not be made an election issue, Chief Minister Narendra Modi has made it the only talking point. And with reason: he has nothing else to talk about. From being one of the most prosperous States, Gujarat has gone downhill in the last five years (see box). Now, all that Modi can do is play on the fear of `Muslim terrorists'. This, when there is still no conclusive proof of how the Sabarmati Express caught fire. One of the slogans in the BJP campaign says: "The mantra to your safety, Narendra Modi." Photographs of the attacked Akshardham temple and the burning Sabarmati Express are displayed on posters.

The BJP is also making every attempt to link the Congress(I) to Muslim terrorists. "The Congress(I) in Kashmir releases terrorists, the BJP in Gujarat crushes them." The BJP propaganda machine has put out a promotional video that shows no visuals of the burning train or Akshardham (to prevent the wrath of the Election Commission), but with lettering that reads, "You are travelling. You can be attacked." Then there is the sound of bells ringing and guns firing. "You are praying. You could be attacked." It goes on to show images of Modi at the sites of both the killings with lines that read, "Many killers. Only one saviour." To top it all, Modi got the daughter of one of the Godhra victims to sign his nomination papers. The BJP plans to use relatives of the Godhra victims for its campaign trail.

The BJP's election manifesto lists several measures to counter terrorism. These include arms training for the residents of border areas, formation of shakti grams in coordination with the Defence Ministry and the creation of a second line of defence with volunteer forces such as gram rakshak dals, home guards and the National Cadet Corps (NCC). While launching the election campaign in Bhuj, Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani even spoke of starting another war with Pakistan. He dared Pakistan to fight a fourth direct war with India instead of engaging in a proxy war targeting temples and innocent civilians. It seems the BJP's one-point agenda is to numb voter memory by using the `terrorist scare'.

On the other hand, the Congress(I) campaign is trying to highlight basic problems unemployment, water shortages, the power crisis and the recent cooperative bank scam. Congress(I) leader Hasmukh Patel says: "The BJP may use Godhra, but people will look to their belly. Gujarat's entire economy was shattered after the communal riots, with a loss of Rs.25,000 crores. People have lost their savings in the cooperative bank scam. After that, who will vote for the BJP?" However, the Congress(I)'s voice gets drowned in the shrill BJP propaganda. Of late, the flamboyant State Congress(I) president, Shankarsinh Vaghela, a former BJP leader, has maintained a mysterious silence. Given his ability to match the BJP's aggressiveness, Vaghela has not confronted the BJP's ridiculous communal rhetoric. This may damage the Congress(I)'s chances of victory, especially in cities and riot-hit rural areas.

During the recent state-supported communal carnage, Congress(I) strongholds in north and central Gujarat were targeted. The worst violence occurred in Panchmahal, Dahod, Chotaudaipur, Sabarkantha and Anand, the traditional rural support bases of the Congress(I). The BJP has been trying to erode these Congress(I) bastions, most of which are in the Adivasi-inhabited areas of central Gujarat. Although the party started its Hindutva campaign in tribal areas with the Ram Janmabhoomi movement in 1992, the Adivasis remained loyal to the Congress(I). However, during the recent violence, the Sangh Parivar mobilised mobs of Adivasis to attack Muslims.

Post-Godhra, the BJP has managed to erode Congress(I) support in some places. Gopal Dhabi, a resident of Bhilpur village in the tribal belt of Chotaudaipur, says: "The Congress(I) has always won here, but now the BJP has gained. They helped release the innocent who were arrested [for rioting]. Muslims started the trouble by burning the train. Why should we let others harm our religion? Besides, the Congress(I) MLA here hasn't done anything to solve our problems." However, others believe that tribal people will still remain loyal to the Congress(I). Shabbir Khatri, a Muslim shop owner in Tejgadh, rural Vadodara district, says: "Most of our business is from Adivasis. They are still friendly with us. It's as if nothing happened in the past. They were only used as a paid mob by local Hindu traders. They will still vote for the Congress(I)." According to Hasmukh Patel, Adivasis participated in the riots because they were told that within those 72 hours, they could loot and the police would not stop them. "But that was for temporary benefit. They are still part of the Congress(I) fold," he says.

Within the BJP too, some people believe that caste and local politics, not Hindutva, will be the decisive factors. An informed source in the BJP said that "local problems, politics and caste equations are likely to dominate, not Hindutva or any other issue". With the seat distribution completed, the patterns of caste conciliation have emerged. Both parties have appeased the two most dominant communities in Gujarat the Patels and the Darbars (both belong to the Other Backward Classes). Within the BJP, Modi has stifled any dissent over seat distribution. Former Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel, the main Patel leader from Saurashtra, demanded that his nominees be given the ticket. But, apparently, only 30 of his 60-odd requests were granted. Modi refused to file his nomination papers if the party gave the ticket to former Home Minister Haren Pandya, who resigned from the State Cabinet owing to differences with Modi. In the last election, Pandya won by a large margin from the Ellisbridge constituency in Ahmedabad.

As a caste grouping, OBCs seem to have gained a major share of the seats in both parties. In an effort to counter Vaghela's strong support-base amongst the OBCs, the BJP distributed 56 seats to OBCs, as compared to 40 in the last election. Under Vaghela's leadership, his OBC supporters have also got more seats in the Congress(I). This time, the Congress(I) nominated 57 people belonging to OBC communities as compared to 48 in the last election. The Congress(I) has also tried to woo Patels, traditional BJP supporters, who are now miffed after Keshubhai's ouster. It has nominated 41 Patels, as compared to 34 in the last election. The BJP has reduced the number of its candidates from the Patel community to 46, as compared to 53 in the last election. While the BJP has not put up a single Muslim candidate, the Congress(I) has nominated five. Dalits and Adivasis have been nominated from reserved seats.

Certain personal favourites of prominent leaders on both sides of the fence have also been rewarded. Education Minister Anandiben Patel, known to be close to Modi, was allowed to change her seat from Mandal in Ahmedabad to Patan in north Gujarat. Although Vaghela is not contesting, his son Mahendrasinh Vaghela was nominated from Sami in Patan, north Gujarat. Vaghela's personal assistant Chattrasinh Chauhan has been given the ticket from Shehra in Panchmahal district. Congress(I) leader Amarsinh Chaodhury's son, Tushar was given the ticket from Vyara in Mandvi, south Gujarat. The spirit of nepotism is well and truly alive.

A slightly nervous Modi decided to change his constituency from Rajkot II to Maninagar in Ahmedabad. He could not have chosen a safer seat. Not only is Maninagar a loyal BJP constituency, it also houses one of the oldest shakhas of the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) in Gujarat. Small Muslim pockets in Maninagar, like Millat Nagar, were attacked during the communal violence. Modi is viewed as a Hindutva hero in riot-hit cities like Ahmedabad, which has a long history of communal tension. Also helping Modi along will be around 18,000 people from his home town Vadnagar, who have migrated to Ahmedabad and live in Maninagar. The Congress(I) has nominated BJP rebel Yatin Oza, a lawyer, to battle Modi. A wily politician, Oza is likely to make things as difficult as possible for Modi. But he has a tough challenge ahead of him.

The other constituency in the spotlight is Godhra. This time the fight in Godhra, a traditional Congress(I) bastion, will be worth watching. Both BJP and Congress(I) candidates are facing stiff opposition from within their respective parties. The BJP nominated State Bajrang Dal president Haresh Bhatt, an outsider, despite strong protests from local BJP leader and former Member of Parliament Gopalsinh Solanki. By nominating Bhatt, the BJP has also alienated the OBC vote, since Solanki is from an OBC community. Many traditional BJP supporters may not vote for an outsider. The Congress(I) has re-nominated sitting MLA Rajendrasinh Patel. However, many Muslims are disappointed with the choice. They allege that he participated in the communal violence. Muslims comprise half of Godhra town's population. Apart from the town, several villages also fall within this constituency. Winning this seat will be a prestige issue for both parties.

The various regions in Gujarat are also likely to throw up distinctive patterns. In the riot-torn north and central Gujarat, the fight is likely to be fierce. But in Saurashtra and Kutch, which were not affected by the communal violence, the Congress(I) is confident of gaining several seats owing to the anti-incumbency factor. A stronghold of Keshubhai Patel, the BJP won 52 of the 58 seats in the Saurashtra region in the last election. This time, since Keshubhai is miffed and water and power shortages are a major concern in this agricultural belt, the Congress(I) is expecting to capture several BJP seats. The BJP may lose ground in Kutch too, owing to public anger over the government's bungling in handling the post-earthquake rehabilitation work and the water crisis. In south Gujarat, the Congress(I) may retain its hold over the tribal belt in the Dangs. But in other areas, it may be an even fight. In all cities, the BJP is likely to retain its hold, especially after the riots in Ahmedabad and Vadodara.

The BJP's gory, cynical strategy seems to be working. By creating a fear psychosis among people, it is projecting Modi as the Hindutva hero. However, some Congress(I) supporters are still waiting for the people to wake up to realities. Gokalbhai Rathwa, an Adivasi from Dhalnagar resettlement village in rural Vadodara, says: "Many people, including Adivasis, believe that the BJP is the only party that will protect Hindus. They fear that if the Congress(I) comes, there would be a Muslim backlash. But why isn't the Congress(I) emphasising that in its 50-year rule, no village in Gujarat had communal tensions, though Muslims were with them? The Congress(I) too should reach out to the people. Election day is near." The BJP intends to go full steam ahead with the Godhra issue. The Congress(I) will have to work fast to prevent the election debate from being railroaded, before theatrics takes over politics.