An explosive experiment

The Assembly elections in Gujarat will be a test for the efficacy of the BJP's aggressive communal agenda and may decide whether the party will replicate it in other parts of the country.

THERE is only one thing that both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress(I), the principal contenders for power in Gujarat, agree on - that the coming elections to the State Assembly will be a landmark event and that they are likely to influence the direction of national politics in a substantial way.

Launching their party's election campaign at Karamsad in Anand, Congress(I) leaders said that they saw the elections not as a fight between the Congress and the BJP but as one for humanity. They would decide whether Gujarat would take the peaceful route of Gandhi and Sardar Patel or opt for violence, they said. Launching his Gujarat Gaurav Yatra after the elections were announced, Chief Minister Narendra Modi also declared that these were no ordinary elections. "It is a fight for Gujarat's pride," he said. Actually, this round will test whether the BJP's hardline communal strategy has worked in Gujarat, the party's Hindutva laboratory, and whether the experiment can be effectively replicated in other parts of the country.

Gujarat is the only State where the BJP has a clear majority. But after its victory in the 1998 Assembly elections, the BJP lost an Assembly byelection and the elections to the district panchayats in 2000. A worried leadership sacked Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel. Narendra Modi, a pracharak of the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS), replaced him as Chief Minister in October 2001. The party was, thus, on the hardline Hindutva route. The Modi government tacitly supported the Sangh Parivar-sponsored communal violence that broke out in the State after the burning of the Sabarmati Express at Godhra on February 27. The BJP saw in Godhra an opportunity to stoke communal fire and ride the Hindutva wave to power.

In his speeches during the Gaurav Yatra, Modi continues to keep the communal fervour alive. Since the Election Commission has banned communally provocative speeches, the anti-minority rhetoric is disguised as an anti-terrorist and anti-Pakistan campaign. He keeps harping on Godhra, the Akshardham temple attack, and terrorism. There is selective amnesia about the terror that followed the Godhra massacre, which left more than 1,000 dead. At the Gaurav Yatra meeting in Godhra, he said, "I want to ask the Congress why they kept quiet in Parliament after Godhra?... If the Congress keeps shielding the perpetrators of the Godhra carnage, Gujarat will never return to normal... I ask my Congress brothers, is it wrong to say Jai Shri Ram in this country? If you don't say it here, will you have to go to Italy to say it?"

The Chief Minister also roped in his friends from the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) to help raise the communal pitch. The VHP planned to start its own `Vijay Yatra' from Godhra to Akshardham, to "awaken Hindus to protect themselves". Sensing trouble, the Election Commission directed the State government to prohibit the Yatra, which was scheduled to start on November 17. The VHP accused the Election Commission of being "biased in favour of the Congress(I) and anti-Hindu" and threatened to defy the ban. According to the VHP's plan, the yatra will culminate on December 6 when it has planned to celebrate the anniversary of the demolition of the Babri Masjid as `Vijay Divas'. It has also demanded that the BJP give VHP members the ticket to contest the elections.

The Sangh Parivar's strategy has kept the State volatile, with sporadic violence still flaring up in several places. The northern and central regions, which witnessed communal carnage, account for most of these incidents. About 10 communal clashes have been reported after elections were announced. With fear and tension still running high, the smallest spark can trigger trouble. On the day that both parties flagged off their election campaigns, five people died in two separate incidents. At Mahudha in Kheda district, the killing was triggered by a dispute over a local cricket match the previous day. In Dasaj village, Mehsana, people at a VHP gathering saw boys from the Muslim basti running towards them and thought they were going to attack the gathering. Actually the boys were chasing away a stray dog from their basti. "The Sangh Parivar's strategy is to keep the sense of insecurity high. These incidents may appear to be sporadic, but there are elements who spread rumours to keep up the communal tempo. As long as the situation remains fragile, all it could take is one rumour to keep Muslims away from the polling booths," says Fr. Victor Moses of the Citizens Initiative, which coordinated relief to the riot-affected.

The Congress(I) is trying hard to counter the BJP's mudslinging by exposing the government's failures and Modi's empty rhetoric. But Modi's venom seems to be stirring crowds far more than the Congress(I)'s commonsense. "No one has a monopoly over Hinduism. Are those who slit the bellies of pregnant women Hindus?" asked Shankarsinh Vaghela, Gujarat Congress(I) president, at the launch of the election campaign. Vaghela is a former BJP leader who rebelled in 1996, when Keshubhai Patel was made the Chief Minister. Referring to the VHP rally, Vaghela said, "When the VHP and the Bajrang Dal come to your village with their swords and trishuls, ask them to leave. We don't want their religion. They are paid hoodlums." Vaghela also spoke of the BJP's misgovernance. He highlighted the problems of the lakhs of unemployed persons in the State, whose families are on the verge of starvation. He said that the State was in such financial trouble that it could not even pay pensions to the aged and the destitute.

The BJP has tried to drown the real issues in its communal screeching. The Congress(I) has been attempting to raise questions about the recession and the breakdown of governance in the State. But the BJP's mudslinging and communal rhetoric have closed the doors for any serious debate.

The situation in the State, however, is serious. At the Gaurav Yatra meeting in Halol, one angry man asked: "What are you going to do for all the unemployed people here? Hundreds of factories are closing down. What will you do to give us work?" An uncomfortable question, which should have broken the collective stupor. But the man was whisked away by BJP activists. Gujarat has many such angry, jobless young men. The riots deepened the recessionary trend in a once-booming economy. "Small and medium industries, which laid the foundation for Gujarat's progress, are a shambles. Around 60 per cent of the factories are either sick or closed. It is estimated that around five lakh persons employed by small-scale units have lost their jobs owing to their closure. Many others in allied industries have also lost their jobs owing to the closure of their units. The communal carnage has made matters worse for Gujarat's economy, destroying many shops and other small businesses," said an industrialist.

There has been no development work for almost six months because the bankrupt government has not paid its contractors their bills, which run to over Rs.850 crores. Farmers are furious over the power crisis. They have attacked Gujarat Electricity Board offices in different parts of the State. Electricity is available for only four hours a day. Farmers using borewells need continuous power supply for at least eight hours a day to harvest their crop. The drinking water problem is also acute, especially in Saurashtra and Kutch. Water is available only for a few hours and that too once in four days. Modi's claims of bringing Narmada waters to Gujarat have yet to show any concrete results. The drought in the kharif season has taken a heavy toll on peasants, but the government declared the State drought-affected very late and has not yet implemented any relief measures.

But these problems are the last thing on the minds of BJP leaders. They are now busy scrambling for the party ticket. (Many members of the dissolved Assembly, including Narendra Modi, even want to change their constituencies for this election - a sign of nervousness.) "Since there are no achievements to speak of, the party is focussing on the communal and caste factors," says a BJP insider. Infighting in the organisation would also weaken its chances. Until now, Keshubhai Patel has chosen to stay away from campaigning. He has a substantial following in the powerful Patel community, which accounts for 20 per cent of the electorate. Victory in Saurashtra, which is Keshubhai's stronghold, is crucial for the BJP. In the last elections, the BJP won 52 of the 58 seats in this region. With Keshubhai and his supporters remaining unhappy with the party, the BJP is likely to lose several seats here. Vaghela may also play the caste card, since he draws his support mainly from the Kshatriya community, some of whose members are rivals of Patels. The Congress(I) is also trying to use vote bank politics with its KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi, Muslim) formula. But it remains to be seen whether the BJP has eaten into these traditional Congress support bases. The Congress(I) also suffers from infighting, which may weaken its support base.

Whatever the result of the coming elections, it will give a decisive turn to Gujarat. Will the voter reject or embrace extremist Hindutva? The results of the BJP's explosive experiment will be known in the weeks to come.