The political dynamics

The emergence of Abdul Kalam as the successor to K.R. Narayanan was preceded by intense manoeuvring in the ruling coalition, and a major motive was to cause disarray in the Opposition.

THE irony was too obvious to be missed. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam has been an apolitical scientist all these years. Yet the process of his choice for the country's highest office has had a profound effect on the internal dynamics and equations of the ruling coalition as well as the character and level of cohesion of the national Opposition, thus setting political pointers for the future. Kalam was not the first choice of either the government or the Opposition, and most parties, barring the Left, agreed on his choice as the next President through a process of elimination of their preferred candidates.

In the case of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's choice was in conflict with that of not only the Opposition but also the hardliners within the ruling coalition. Every Prime Minister since Independence has preferred a pliable President, but his or her choice has not always made it to the post. The character and composition of the electoral college at a given point of time and even internal equations within the ruling party often determine the success of the Prime Minister's choice.

When the race for the President's office began, Vajpayee had several candidates to choose from, with Kalam probably ranking last in the list. And Vajpayee was not in favour of another term for the incumbent President, K.R. Narayanan, whose ideological moorings were in conflict with his, not to speak of the many irritants that emerged in the Prime Minister-President relationship since Vajpayee assumed office in 1998.

However, with the Opposition parties remaining firm in their support to a second term for Narayanan, Vajpayee made it clear that there was no consensus within the NDA on the issue, and advised Narayanan not to contest. Vajpayee's strategy was to scuttle Narayanan's chances at the earliest, so that the Opposition would be forced to consider other names. But the Opposition remained hopeful with regard to Narayanan's candidature until the NDA revealed Kalam's name.

The suspense about Narayanan's plans made the NDA jittery. With the electoral college almost evenly divided, the NDA was not sure about the outcome if it forced a contest. Indeed, the risk of an NDA candidate losing the election even forced Vajpayee to consider elevating Vice-President Krishan Kant to the Presidency.

With almost all the Opposition parties informally agreeing on Krishan Kant, the Prime Minister felt that a bitter battle with the Opposition on the issue would not make sense, as the stakes involved in the office of President did not merit such a fight.

Vajpayee probably though that with the all-round support for Krishan Kant, it would be easier to scuttle Narayanan's chances. Krishan Kant's tenure as Vice-President was relatively non-controversial, and if he could secure the support of the Opposition as well, there would be no harm in adhering to the convention of elevating the Vice-President to the Presidency, Vajpayee felt.

Convinced about the virtue of consensus out of compulsion rather than choice, he spoke to his senior colleagues in the party and the government, L.K. Advani, Jana Krishnamurthy, George Fernandes, Jaswant Singh and Pramod Mahajan, about the merits of fielding Krishan Kant. Finding their responses positive, he invited them for a discussion on the subject at his residence on June 8. An hour before the discussion began, Vajpayee, who was under the illusion that the leaders were coming to endorse his proposal, let his Principal Secretary, Brajesh Mishra, tell Congress Working Committee member K. Natwar Singh that Krishan Kant would be the government's choice for the Presidency.

During the discussion, however, Vajpayee found himself isolated. His senior colleagues unanimously told him that Krishan Kant would be unacceptable because he was seen more as a nominee of the Third Front. Besides, they did not share Vajpayee's concern to avoid a contest. Some NDA leaders felt that Krishan Kant's rulings as the Chairman of the Rajya Sabha had often favoured the Opposition. They were convinced that if a contest was forced, the NDA candidate would win. Why should the NDA settle for a neutral candidate if its numerical strength in the electoral college favoured it, argued the BJP hardliners consisting of younger leaders such as Mahajan, Arun Jaitley and Ananth Kumar.

They proposed the name of Maharashtra Governor P.C. Alexander for the post. In their assessment, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister and Telugu Desam Party president N. Chandrababu Naidu would have no objection to backing Alexander. Chandrababu Naidu first backed Krishan Kant, but later agreed to support a candidate chosen by the Prime Minister.

Sensing the mood of his colleagues, Vajpayee did not push his preference for Krishan Kant. He asked Mishra to apologise to Natwar Singh and indicate that the choice of Krishan Kant was not final. As at the recent BJP National Executive meeting in Goa, where he could not resist the hardliners' support to Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi's continuance in office, on the choice of the new President too the Prime Minister hardly objected to the dilution of his authority by his own colleagues.

The Alexander proposal soon united the Opposition parties. Leaders of the Congress(I) and the People's Front (consisting of the Left parties, the Janata Dal(S) and the Samajwadi Party) met President K.R. Narayanan on June 9 and renewed their request that he seek a second term with their support. Their impression was that Narayanan was willing to contest if Alexander emerged as the NDA's candidate. The Opposition felt that if Narayanan agreed to be their unanimous candidate, there was a fair chance of his winning. In the Opposition's assessment, many fence-sitters within the NDA and its supporting parties such as the TDP would refuse to back Alexander if Narayanan sought a second term.

Alexander evoked intense distrust within the Opposition for several reasons. The government dangled the office of the President before him when his role during the phase of instability faced by the Congress(I)-Nationalist Congress Party coalition government in Maharashtra (story on page 36) was under observation. The Congress(I) perhaps apprehended that if Alexander was elected President, it would help the Sangh Parivar's propaganda against the party president Sonia Gandhi's claim to prime ministership in the event of the Congress(I) managing the requisite numerical strength in the Lok Sabha. It was felt that the BJP and the Parivar would then find it easy to sustain a whispering campaign that as Alexander is a Christian, Sonia Gandhi, also Christian, could not aspire to become Prime Minister. The majority sentiment, the Congress(I) feared, would be against one minority community being represented by two top-most constitutional functionaries.

Among other Opposition parties many see Alexander as a former career bureaucrat who was too closely identified with the Nehru-Gandhi family, but later won the grace of Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray and senior Union Ministers Advani and Mahajan by his inaction on the Srikrishna Commission Report, which had indicted the Shiv Sena on the 1993 Mumbai riots. Some Opposition leaders believe that had the NDA fielded Alexander, Narayanan would have agreed to contest. This strong possibility forced Chandrababu Naidu to rethink his strategy; he felt that it would be wrong to oppose the incumbent President if he decided to seek a second term.

Chandrababu Naidu avoided the NDA meeting scheduled in New Delhi on June 9 to declare its support for Alexander. The meeting was deferred citing the absence in New Delhi of several NDA leaders. But the real reason was that NDA leaders were anxious to secure Chandrababu Naidu's backing for Alexander, as it would be difficult to ensure his victory without the TDP's support. Chandrababu Naidu indicated his displeasure over Alexander to the NDA leaders, as his likely candidature had united the entire Opposition behind Narayanan. The NDA leaders soon realised that if Narayanan agreed to contest against Alexander, it could lose potential allies such as the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Bahujan Samaj Party, which might rally around Narayanan.

On June 10, the Prime Minister sent Alexander's supporter in the Union Cabinet, Pramod Mahajan, to Hyderabad to convince Chandrababu Naidu to agree on a third candidate, preferably Kalam. The TDP leader agreed on Kalam and the choice was also acceptable to the NDA. Chandrababu Naidu decided to back Kalam after realising that Krishan Kant would not get the support of the entire NDA. As many in the NDA, especially the Trinamul Congress, had already declared their preference for Kalam, Chandrababu Naidu felt it would be prudent to agree on Kalam.

HOW did the dark horse, Kalam, manage to become the favourite of everyone except the Left parties? Kalam's modesty apart, the support he drew from political parties was based on how the parties and the groups perceived the after-effects of his elevation to the Presidency.

When Vajpayee was looking for a third option, choosing Kalam helped him to clip the wings of the hardliners within the NDA, who were pushing for Alexander, and also neutralise the Opposition's attack on him for not following the canons of consensus-building.

For the hardliners within the NDA, it is a small price to pay to extract bigger sops in the future. Moreover, the Prime Minister cannot claim exclusive credit for spiking Alexander's chances; after all, but for the Opposition's threat to field Narayanan against Alexander, Kalam's name would not have emerged.

The hardliners were only too willing to jettison Alexander in favour of Kalam, whom they considered their own man. Many in the Parivar had no objection to Kalam's candidature because he was non-controversial and was above politics. Since he is a Bharat Ratna awardee, factors such as his lack of political experience and his religion pale into insignificance, they feel. Above all, it cannot be denied that as a scientist, Kalam has won the hearts of hardliners in the Parivar because he is identified closely with the aggressive patriotism that has come to characterise the discourse on national security issues in the country.

The BJP, which welcomed Kalam's choice as the best, questioned the Opposition's diffidence in not extending support to Kalam soon after the proposal came from the Prime Minister. Many in the BJP feel Kalam's lack of political experience would be an asset in his functioning as the President: he would be free from the prejudices and party affiliations that coloured the decisions of earlier Presidents. Precisely for the same reason, it may be too early for Vajpayee to rest assured that in Kalam he has got a pliable President. As he starts with a clean slate, it is natural that people expect him to be amenable to sensible suggestions from different quarters.

THE announcement of Kalam's name as the NDA candidate on June 10 left the Opposition flabbergasted. Before the announcement, the Prime Minister invited the leaders of the Opposition to his residence and revealed the NDA's choice. Accompanied by Advani, the Prime Minister also confirmed to Congress(I) leaders Sonia Gandhi, Manmohan Singh and Natwar Singh that Kalam was their final choice, indicating that the NDA was unlikely to consider any other name floated by the Opposition. The Opposition leaders felt the Prime Minister, rather than seeking a consensus, was simply informing them of his choice. The Opposition parties, including the Left, the Janata Dal(S) and the Samajwadi Party, sought time to react to the Prime Minister's proposal. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and AIADMK general secretary Jayalalithaa assured the Prime Minister of her party's support to Kalam.

At the People's Front meeting held in New Delhi on June 11, its convener and Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav expressed his support to Kalam's candidature, claiming that it was the S.P. that first mooted his name during discussions with the Prime Minister.

The S.P. refused to heed CPI(M) general secretary Harkishan Singh Surjeet's plea to review its decision for the sake of Opposition unity. The S.P.'s support to Kalam, even before Narayanan could officially rule himself out of the contest, disappointed other P.F. leaders.

Surjeet announced that the P.F. had ceased to exist with the exit of the S.P., but vowed to reorganise it soon. His view was that Kalam should not go unchallenged, because the post of the President should be filled by a person who is familiar with the complexities of the political situation in the country. The Left parties decided to await the Congress(I)'s response to Kalam's choice.

Sources in the Congress(I) said that Sonia Gandhi initially wanted to go along with the Left parties and field a common candidate against Kalam. However, the overwhelming opinion in favour of Kalam among Congress (I) Chief Ministers forced her to change her view. The party declared its support to Kalam's candidature on June 13, after extensive consultations within the party.

The Congress(I)'s support to Kalam was based on realistic considerations. Indeed, the Congress(I) abandoned the idea of fielding a candidate against Kalam with Left support once it became clear that the numbers were certainly in Kalam's favour. S. Jaipal Reddy, party spokesperson, said: "Kalam's appeal to the pro-Congress constituency was enormous. It was the Congress(I) and the United Front governments that built him up. But the NDA dumped Kalam when he ceased to function as the Scientific Adviser to the Defence Minister. We respect the Left's opinion that Kalam lacks political experience. But the Congress can't be guided by a doctrinaire approach."

Jaipal Reddy was, however, clear that this would not affect the Congress(I)'s relations with the Left parties. "Our relations are based on stable ideological affinity. Tactical and strategic differences on temporary issues will not affect the basic framework of that relationship."

Jaipal Reddy disagreed that Kalam would find it difficult to understand the complexities of politics. After all, he worked within the system as a bureaucrat with a Cabinet rank for nearly a decade, he pointed out.

THE Congress(I)'s stand, however, failed to dampen the resolve of the Left parties - the CPI(M), the CPI, the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP), and the Forward Bloc - to field a candidate against Kalam. Even though they floated various names such as those of former Chief Justice of India Justice A.S. Ahmadi, former Governor of Tamil Nadu, M. Fatima Beevi, or Rajya Sabha member and eminent advocate Fali S. Nariman, as possible candidates whom a united Opposition can approach, the Congress(I)'s decision narrowed their choice to someone from within the Left for the unequal political fight. They thus chose the veteran freedom fighter and activist 87-year-old Lakshmi Sahgal as their candidate, the first woman contestant for the Presidency, after she agreed. Former Prime Ministers, H.D. Deve Gowda (Janata Dal-Secular) and V.P. Singh endorsed the choice of the Left.

The Left parties agree that Kalam is a renowned scientist-administrator and the country has given him due recognition for his contribution. But their objection to Kalam's candidature mainly stemmed from their misgivings whether he would be able to grasp and respond to the serious developments in the polity, which is fragmented amid the tensions with Pakistan. Calling the events in Gujarat as a serious warning, they doubted Kalam's ability to safeguard the secular democratic foundations of the Indian republic. They blamed the Samajwadi Party for going back on its commitment to Narayanan to support him in case he wished to seek a second term in office, thus forcing the dissolution of the People's Front and Narayanan's refusal to contest, apparently because of the divisions within the Opposition.

Why did the S.P. go back on its commitment to Narayanan? S.P. leader Amar Singh explained that when some NDA leaders floated Alexander's name, the S.P. joined the rest of the Opposition and requested Narayanan to seek a second term with their support, even though it was not entirely happy about his first term. With Narayanan not announcing his decision until the evening of June 11 (when he publicly ruled himself out of the contest), the S.P. was free to express its support to another candidate with regard to whom a consensus was possible, he said. However, the lack of ethics in the S.P.'s decision to back Kalam even before Narayanan announced his decision was obvious to all. Yet the S.P. indulged in an ugly public spat with the Left parties, calling them inconsistent and blaming Surjeet for the collapse of the Front. Unlike the Left parties, Mulayam Singh Yadav believes that Kalam's non-political background only shows he would have no vested interests.

Did the Left overstate its case against Kalam and thus risk Opposition disunity? CPI(M) Polit Bureau member Prakash Karat said: "The office of the President is one of the key Constitutional and political posts in the country. We would like a person who can exercise political sagacity and judgment to occupy this office. In Gujarat, there has been a blatant violation of rights guaranteed under the Constitution. The President may be asked to exercise his judgment. We don't know Kalam's views on any of these matters." Karat felt that the NDA's objective in floating the names of Krishan Kant, then Alexander, and finally Kalam appeared to be to eliminate Narayanan from the contest. Narayanan, he said, was the best President the country could have under the circumstances. Calling the People's Front a partial expression of the search for a third alternative, Karat said he was optimistic that the constituents of the Front would soon reorganise themselves, even though the S.P. had chosen to leave.

Kalam's election as the 11th President is not in doubt. But it remains to be seen whether Kalam satisfies the expectations of the bulk of the political class which has chosen him as its candidate. The Opposition has only to blame itself if Vajpayee emerges stronger than ever before with Kalam's elevation as President. There is the apprehension that if the Vajpayee government is strengthened because of the disunity in the Opposition, it could embolden the Parivar to pursue blatantly its divisive agenda, and this may not be without basis. Will Kalam rise to the occasion and defend the secular fabric of the nation under such circumstances?