Hat-trick in Tripura

While the Left Front romps home in Tripura, the Congress emerges as the single largest party in Meghalaya and Nagaland. However, it manages to form a government only in Meghalaya.

THE Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Front swept back to power in Tripura for the fifth time, defeating the Congress(I)-Indigenous National Party of Tripura (INPT) alliance. The victory of the Left Front for the third consecutive time has reconfirmed the State's position as a Left stronghold in the insurgency-affected northeastern region.

Of the 60 Assembly seats, the Left Front won 41, and the Congress(I)-INPT alliance 19 (of which 13 seats went to the Congress(I)). Of the 41 Left Front seats, the CPI(M) got 38, the Revolutionary Socialist Party two and the Communist Party of India one. The poll results were almost identical to those of 1998. This time the CPI(M) not only retained almost all its seats but also wrested some constituencies from the Opposition and made considerable inroads into the tribal areas.

Talking to Frontline after he was sworn in Chief Minister for the second consecutive term, Manik Sarkar said: "This victory of the Left Front and the CPI(M) is a reaffirmation of the people's confidence in the policies and performance of the Left Front and its government. Despite threats from insurgent groups to disrupt polling, the voter turnout was massive. Because of the people's confidence in the Left Front government, the Front surged ahead in its seats tally in all the four districts of Tripura."

Addressing a rally soon after taking oath on March 7, Manik Sarkar said that the foremost task of his government was to "continue development work and ensure peace and stability in the State''. Indicating that the government would make extra efforts to tackle the insurgency, Manik Sarkar said the Centre would be pressed to take concrete measures in this direction. Prominent CPI(M) leaders, including Polit Bureau members Prakash Karat and Sitaram Yechury and the Left Front chairman of West Bengal Biman Bose were present at the rally in Agartala.

Sarkar renewed his appeal to insurgents to give up violence and come to the negotiating table to solve their problems within the framework of the Constitution. "The Tripura government will not have any objection if the ultras wished to approach the Centre directly,'' he said.

Apart from Sarkar, 17 Ministers were administered the oath of office and secrecy by Governor Lt. Gen. (retd.) K.M. Seth in a simple ceremony at the Raj Bhavan. Except Gopal Das of the RSP and Manindra Reang of the CPI, all the other Ministers belong to the CPI(M). Bijoylaxmi Sinha, widow of assassinated former Health Minister Bimal Sinha, is the only woman in the Cabinet.

The Chief Minister told Frontline that the priorities of his government would be to improve the standard of living of the people, especially those living below the poverty line. For this, he said, it was necessary to develop the State's agriculture sector, which would create immense scope for agro-based medium industries. Agreeing that unemployment was a major problem, particularly for those who had crossed the upper age limit for securing jobs, Sarkar said that a number of special schemes would be taken up for the overaged unemployed.

The heavy voter turnout of about 80 per cent, which was a result of large-scale deployment of Army and paramilitary forces in the insurgency-affected hilly regions during electioneering and on the day of polling, seems to have gone in favour of the Left Front. It was apparent that tribal militants belonging to the banned National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) could not this time prevent Left Front supporters from voting or adopting the terror tactics that they had employed during the elections to the Tripura Tribal Area Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) in May 2000. The CPI(M) was determined not to allow tribal militants to repeat their "sinister game''. It was more alert and prepared to counter the insurgency menace. The party organised several campaigns in various parts of the State, including the tribal-dominated hilly regions, to rid the CPI(M)'s support base among the tribal masses of the fear of the gun.

Tripura had, in the days leading to the polls, witnessed a polarisation of Bengali voters who constitute 70 per cent of the electorate. The CPI(M) had aided this by convincing the Bengali refugees from erstwhile East Pakistan, now Bangladesh, that militancy would receive a boost if the Congress(I)-INPT alliance came to power. Hence even the traditional supporters of the Congress(I) amongst the Bengalis voted for the Left.

The Tripura results have not surprised political pundits. The State Congress(I) is faction-ridden and lacks tribal support. It has always allied itself with local tribal parties with an eye on their share of votes. This time, however, the alliance lost not only its traditional Bengali support in the rural areas, but also the little tribal backing it had. In urban areas too, a section of the traditional Congress(I) supporters were visibly angry with the party leadership for jettisoning its principles and going for a tie-up with the INPT. The Congress(I) contested 42 seats, leaving 18 of the 20 reserved seats for tribal candidates of the INPT, and polled 32.75 per cent of the vote. The party was routed in two of the four districts - that is, Dhalai and South Tripura.

Analysts say the party's tie-up with the INPT sealed its fate. A section of the State Congress(I) members were against the alliance and against Bijoy Hrangkhawl, who leads the INPT, in particular because of his anti-Bengali reputation. But their views were ignored by Mani Shankar Aiyar, who was in charge of the party's affairs in the northeastern region, and the State Congress(I) chief Birjit Singh.

The party failed to counter the Left Front's campaign effectively and sounded apologetic every time it tried to defend its alliance with the INPT. The CPI(M) and its partners in the Left Front projected Hrangkhawl's demand, made at an international conference in Geneva last year, for the right to self-determination for the indigenous tribal population of Tripura. The Congress(I) leadership had no clear answer for the CPI(M)'s allegation that the State Congress(I) had been lenient to extremists. Nor did it take any clear stand on the insurgency.

The Bengali refugees, among whom the Congress(I) has some support base in the plains, turned their backs on the party because of its tie-up with the INPT, which has been demanding the deportation of "aliens''. The Bengalis, who have suffered a lot owing to the prolonged spell of insurgency in the State, voted almost en bloc for the Left. The selection of candidates too left Congress(I) workers and leaders dissatisfied. Some Other Backward Classes (OBC) groups were "deliberately'' left out of the poll panel.

COALITION politics marked by splits, horse-trading, and frequent changes of ministries is a common feature of the northeastern States of Meghalaya and Nagaland. Both States saw fractured verdicts in the Assembly polls. In both States the Congress(I) emerged as the single largest party, but it did not have the required majority to form governments on its own. While in Meghalaya the Congress(I), with 22 MLAs, has come to power heading a five-party coalition in the 60-member House, in Nagaland the party with a tally of 20 in the 60-member House, is sitting in the Opposition.

For the first time in Nagaland's history, as many as three national parties are part of a coalition government modelled on the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) at the Centre. Neiphiu Rio of the Nagaland People's Front (NPF), which led the eight-party Democratic Alliance of Nagaland (DAN) formed on the eve of the elections, was the unanimous choice as Chief Minister.

The ruling Congress(I)'s defeat was the culmination of a long process that started when the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA government at the Centre launched efforts to bring the underground National Socialist Council of Nagalim - NSCN(I-M) - leaders Isaac Chishi Swu and Th. Muivah from Amsterdam to India for peace talks. The peace talks in New Delhi a month before the polls had a definite impact on the elections in the insurgency-affected State. As a constituent of DAN, the BJP for the first time found representation in the predominantly Christian State. Surprisingly, the State unit of the BJP, founded by former Congress(I) Chief Minister Hokishe Sema, won six seats, edging out the Congress(I) candidates.

Even before stepping on Indian soil in early January, Muivah had started accusing Chief Minister S.C. Jamir and the ruling Congress(I) of being the greatest obstacles to lasting peace in Nagaland. Muivah's charge that Jamir was hindering peace talks - one that the NPF translated into a major campaign plank - made a deep impression on the 16.5-lakh-strong electorate. Jamir charged the underground NSCN(I-M) cadres with intimidating Congress(I) supporters in interior areas and thus helping the Opposition parties come to power, though the NSCN(I-M) had stated that it would not meddle with the elections. In the run-up to the polls, the Congress(I) accused NSCN(I-M) cadres of abducting Congress(I) workers and leaders, extorting money from them, threatening them, and warning the electorate against voting for the Congress(I). On the other hand, the NPF and other Opposition parties charged the Congress(I) with trying to subvert the poll process. There seems to be some truth in this charge - the results of one seat, which the Congress(I) won, has been withheld after other parties complained that the number of votes polled outnumbered the electorate.

Rio was Home Minister in the Jamir Cabinet. Rio, it is alleged, left the Jamir Ministry at the behest of the NSCN(I-M) to form the NPF in October.

The Congress(I)'s defeat can be attributed to the anti-incumbency factor too. The Opposition parties' portrayal of the Congress(I) government as a corrupt one also played a major role in the party's debacle. But the most critical factor was the NSCN(I-M) cadres' overt and covert support to the NPF and the BJP.

The nascent ruling alliance under the banner of DAN includes the NPF, the BJP, the Samata Party, the Janata Dal (United), the Nagaland Democratic Party, the Nationalist Congress Party, the Trinamul Congress and the Rashtriya Lok Dal. In most cases, there were no pre-poll adjustment of seats among the alliance partners. The NPF got 19 seats, the BJP six, Janata Dal (U) three and the Samata Party one, taking the total strength of DAN to 29. Later the Nationalist Democratic Movement (NDM), which contested the elections on its own and got five seats, and four independent MLAs joined the DAN, taking its strength to 38.

BRINGING an end to three days of political uncertainty in Meghalaya after the announcement of the election results on March 1, a Congress(I)-led Meghalaya Democratic Alliance (MDA) government was sworn in on March 4 with D.D. Lapang as Chief Minister. Lapang has inducted 37 Ministers into his Cabinet, evidently to keep the coalition from falling apart.

In a swift and clever political manoeuvre, veteran Congress(I) leader Lapang managed to form the MDA to outwit Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) general secretary and former Lok Sabha Speaker P.A. Sangma, who was trying hard to form a coalition headed by his party. Sangma's NCP, which won 14 seats, was the partner of the previous coalition government of the Congress(I)-led People's Forum of Meghalaya (PFM). Regional parties in the PFM, such as the United Democratic Party (UDP), the Meghalaya Democratic Party (MDP), the Hill States People's Democratic Party (HSPDP) and the People's Democratic Party (PDP), wanted to maintain the coalition until the February 26 polls, but on the eve of the elections the NCP severed its ties with the Congress(I) accusing it of corruption, and announced that it would contest all the 60 seats on its own. It led to a collapse of the PFM and all the alliance partners contested the polls separately. In the absence of any pre-poll understanding, there were multi-cornered contests in many constituencies.

A day after Lapang staked his claim on March 2 to form a Congress(I)-led government, Sangma queered the pitch by claiming to have 31 legislators on his side. But by the time Sangma staked his claim, Lapang and three regional parties had submitted a "letter of understanding'' to the Governor, M.M. Jacob, committing themselves to a coalition backed by three of the five independent MLAs. The strength of the ruling MDA is 37, the break-up being Congress(I) 22, UDP nine, MDP four, Khun Hynniewtrep National Awakening Movement (KHNAM) two.

Apart from the three independent MLAs, two HSPDP legislators support the MDA. Of the 37 Ministers, 21 are from the Congress(I), eight from the UDP, three from the MDP, two from the KHNAM and two are independents. The BJP got two against the three seats it had won in 1998.