Plans on paper

The rehabilitation efforts in Indonesia, one of the worst affected countries, are characterised by slow implementation and procedural delays.

P.S. SURYANARAYANA in Singapore

FAST-TRACK goals and slow-speed implementation have characterised the post-tsunami reconstruction efforts in the Indonesian province of Aceh, the worst-affected region, in the year since the Boxing Day calamity of 2004.

Aware of this reality and buoyed by the tsunami-induced peace accord in Aceh, the Indonesian authorities have, on the first anniversary of the tragedy, vowed to make course corrections. The objective is to complete the $6-billion plan of reconstruction by or before 2009 as originally intended.

In Thailand, where a substantial portion of fashionable tourism infrastructure was laid waste and 8,000 people lost their lives, the authorities reckon that they have succeeded in doing substantial rehabilitation work.

Malaysia was another South-East Asian country that was affected. However, with the death toll and the damage being far less than in neighbouring Indonesia and Thailand, the Malaysian authorities have not felt the need for crisis-busting measures on the same scale as in the case of others.

Overall, with many extra-regional players and the United Nations rushing to the aid of the tsunami-hit in the region, long-term issues such as the setting up of early warning systems and promoting social awareness have come to the fore. While progress is certainly noticeable, no comprehensive and failure-proof alert system is in place across the entire tsunami-related geological fault-line.

The United States, Japan, India, Australia and Singapore were the first to rush to the aid of Indonesia and Thailand in the wake of the tragedy. Of these "good Samaritans", the U.S. has been singularly alone and quite successful in fishing for some strategic gains in the troubled waters. Indonesia, for its part, is pleased that the level of external interest in Aceh-Nias reconstruction has not waned at all even in the wake of the recent earthquake in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and adjacent areas, not to mention the hurricane disasters across the U.S.

More conspicuous than the strategic gains made by external players in their ties with Indonesia, in such a situation, is the memorandum of understanding (MoU) that Jakarta signed with the independence-seeking rebels of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM in local parlance) in Helsinki on August 15, 2005. The MoU specifically states in the preamble that "the parties are deeply convinced that only the peaceful settlement of the [GAM-Jakarta] conflict will enable the rebuilding of Aceh after the tsunami disaster ... ".

The cause of such a linkage is not far to seek. The estimated death toll in Aceh was over 131,000 and over half a million people were rendered homeless. Many GAM rebels were also believed to have either died or become homeless. The tsunami took a heavy toll of GAM supporters as well. Above all, the traumatised survivors in Aceh obviously lost the "will" to let the GAM-Jakarta conflict drag on to a political or military conclusion. Jakarta seized the opportunity for a peace accord with GAM. At the same time, Indonesia's "transparency" or the alleged lack of it also came under the international microscope. But, that is a different story altogether.

The Indonesian government's update on the damage in Aceh is as follows: 120,000 houses destroyed; 2,260 bridges rendered unusable; 9 per cent of the Acehnese local-government "capacity" depleted owing to deaths of officials and other causes; 150,000 students deprived of educational facilities; 2,112 schools laid waste; 690 health centres razed or rendered unusable. While 600 km of the Aceh coastline was devastated in various ways and geological reconfigurations occurred as a result, the entire Nias island was, in a seismic sense, "lifted".

The specially designated reconstruction agency, BRR (in the Indonesian parlance), has estimated that the gross domestic product (GDP) of Aceh would have diminished by 14 per cent in 2005 if no rehabilitation projects were undertaken. With a population of about 3.9 million before the tsunami, Aceh's per capita GDP, at about $450, was placed on a par with that of Sudan or Niger and far below the national average.

The silver lining is that almost two-thirds of the $7-billion international aid pledges have been translated into "project commitments". The Indonesian government has "committed" $1.35 billion out of a "pledge" of $2.1 billion. However, according to BRR, several factors have led to the slow implementation of projects. As for the rebuilding of houses, only about 11,000 of them were ready by the end of October 2005, as against the target of 30,000 by the year-end.

The slippage, despite a revised estimate of 25,000 by the year-end, was blamed on bureaucratic delays that persisted despite Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's orders for speedy implementation. Similar slippages were acknowledged across the board - in the rebuilding of medical centres, schools and so on.

As the setting up of a "war room" to meet the long-term effects of the tragedy did not prove to be as useful as planned, the BRR has begun to lay greater emphasis on a "community-driven effort" so that environmentally sustainable reconstruction projects could be executed with transparency and non-corrupt practices as the guiding principles.

While much attention in Aceh has centred on GAM-related activities and security-strategic considerations, the fishing community's woes have been addressed on a less conspicuous scale. By November 2005, only about half of the target of distributing 10,000 boats by the year-end had been met.

IN Thailand, beach-side tourism-related infrastructure in popular resorts such as Phuket and outlying holiday islands bore the brunt of the tsunami. The fishing community too was not spared. Official figures showed that four Indian nationals were among the several thousand foreigners who died on the Thai beaches (at least one Indian was suspected to have been among the dead in Aceh).

The Thai authorities, led by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, adopted a far more proactive post-tsunami strategy than the Indonesians. Thaksin won re-election, riding the wave of popular appreciation of his administration's efforts at post-tsunami reconstruction.

While Thailand has made a beginning by drawing up beach-side tsunami-alert procedures, a more comprehensive and scientific warning system is being sought in association with other countries and under the overall auspices of the U.N. Indonesia is also looking for external help in this regard, and India is a key player under the aegis of the U.N.